NBA

[vookaleer]

I will be the first to admit that I do not know much about the NBA.  I like playing the sport.  But have a casual interest in watching it.

I keep hearing that the Celtics big three- Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce are sure HOFers.  I am curious if Allen and Pierce are going to the Hall or does the media give them too much credit

[kidcarter8]

yes

no

[bodiddley]

Allen catching up to Reggie as the most prolific 3-point shooter ever.

        Player           3P Made

1.    Reggie Miller   2560
2.    Ray Allen         2444
3.    Dale Ellis          1719

That's almost 50% more than the #3 fella.
You can poke around this site and see all-time, career and season stats.

Ray Allen is simply one of the best shooters ever.
Allen is a career 40% 3-point shooter and almost 90% FT shooter, 4th best all-time.  Almost 21K points scored.  Everyone ahead of him on the career scoring list is in the HOF, or will be when they are eligible, with the lone exception of Artis Gilmore, who did most of his damage in the ABA.
Next year, Ray will move past Bird and Payton into the Top 25 on the NBA-only all-time list.

Pierce is almost at 20K in scoring, and two years younger than Allen.
Strong numbers across the board, plus was a 4th Q/clutch-time beast for many years.  I think it helps Pierce a good deal that he has stayed with the same team and been its leader and best player for so long.  I think the championship pushed Pierce over the top for the Hall, but the fact that he is still 32 means that his final numbers will make him a lock.

Kobe is obviously in.
Pau could be making a case for himself.
Was the best player on the Griz for years, put up solid numbers and then the Lakers make 3 straight Finals with him, and hardly lose when with him.
Very consistent.
One of the better passing Bigs.
19 / 9 / 3.2 / 1.7 blocks.
Another title or two, more strong years in his 30's (he turns 30 just after the season ends) ...

[vookaleer]

Thanks.

Allen does have a smooth shot.

Pierce is very tenacious.

Both teams playing for legacy as well as a championship.

[tomverve]

basketball-reference.com has a method of estimating a player's odds for being elected to the Hall of Fame based on their physical characteristics, statistics, and historical accomplishments. The method is basically to see what features have historically been relevant for those players who have and have not been elected to the Hall, and then to extrapolate on that basis for players who are not yet eligible.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

According to this method, Pierce currently has a 95% probability of being elected to the Hall, and Allen a 91% chance. Those odds will only increase as they continue to accrue career accomplishments and (potentially) win more titles.

[Yankguy1]

On a totally non-objective way of looking at it, I suppose Allen is fairly comparable to Reggie Miller, who is considered a sure fire HOFer.  I think Allen is a considerably better player than Miller was.

[bodiddley]

You can look at where Pierce rates among the all-time Celtics (sortable by categories).
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/players.html
PP already is the leader in Boston FT's Made and Attempted.

Next year will be his 13th as a Celt, tying him with Bird & McHale, Russell & Cousy.  And just behind Parish (14) and Havlicek (16).

[kam]

I am curious if Allen and Pierce are going to the Hall or does the media give them too much credit

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_active.html

Pierce is 8th among active players, Allen 11th.

If their careers ended today, Pierce would be a 'better' Hall of Famer than Ewing, Gervin, Parrish, and McAdoo.
While Ray Allen puts Kevin McHale, Lenny Wilkens, John Stockton and Bob Lanier to shame.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_career.html

[jbottle]

I think Stockton has the corner on dimes, though.  That's a big deal.

[jbottle]

Yep.  Dude?

http://www.nba.com/statistics/default_all_time_leaders/AllTimeLeadersASTQuery.html

[bodiddley]

I wouldn't put too much stock in that HOF Probability formula.
It gives Nash just a 37% chance, and I'd double those odds.
2 MVP's, leading the league in assists multiple years, winning records and fairly deep playoff penetration, plus historically great shooting from everywhere -- I'd say he's almost a lock.

Wonder about TMac and Carter.
Big time scoring talent, but neither ever had much playoff success.
TMac with a better all-around game.
Carter will top 20K in points next season.
TMac at 17,500 and who knows what he's got left.

Do people think Carter and TMac will be inducted?
Another 2-3 years should push Carter's numbers well into HOF range.
Plus he was the face of the franchise in Toronto for years and has Olympic memories as well.  So Carter will likely get in.

[jbottle]

Allen not making much of a case tonight needing 3-8 or so from 3 to prob win the game instead of O-fer.

[tomverve]

I wouldn't put too much stock in that HOF Probability formula.
It gives Nash just a 37% chance, and I'd nearly double his odds.

Kind of foolish to dismiss a whole method based on one data point... and Nash is an exceedingly odd data point at that.

[kidcarter8]

Doesnt work for white dudes

[bodiddley]

It seems like a goofy formulation.
Take the most basic stats and accomplishments and subtract them from a height penalty.
Huh?
The only reason it works, imo, is because it heavily weights points scored, all-star selections, and championships, which are probably the main factors.  Rebounds and assists are added in at a lower rate, and that's it.  Pretty odd and bare bones.

So it misses tons of things such as leadership, great 3-point and FT shooting, sustained playoff success short of a title, MVP awards, longevity (which here would hurt a player as it tends to lower career averages), being the best player at your position for xxx years, etc.

I assume other long-time players without titles such as Reggie a would rate lower in this formula than they should.  Just checked and Reggie clocks in at 6% -- possibly a tad low.
Other anomalies: Wes Unseld at a mere 54%; Stockton at 82%; Bernard at 37%; Yao Ming at 27%; Earl Monroe 24%; Moncrief at 11%; Walton and Mullin @ 12%; Mutombo and LJ under 5%, etc.