Where will Yi land?posted: Friday, May 18, 2007 | Feedback | Print Entry
filed under: Insider NBA
Yi Jianlian could be the draft's biggest wild card. Projecting how high he'll go will be no easy task.
I spent two days watching Yi work out in Los Angeles and walked away convinced that he's the third-best prospect (see the Top 100), ranking immediately behind Greg Oden and Kevin Durant.
But that doesn't mean he'll go No. 3. In fact, at this point it's not clear at all where he'll land in the lottery, from No. 3 to some spot further down.
For Yi to maximize his potential, he needs to be drafted by a team that's committed to developing him the same way Houston was with Yao Ming.
That's where Yi's agent, Dan Fegan, comes in.
Fegan, who has a long client list in the NBA, including Suns forward Shawn Marion and Warriors guard Jason Richardson, has a rep as a tough negotiator who finds a way to get his clients on the teams they want to play for at top dollar.
His challenge for Yi will be interesting.
Fegan declines to talk about their draft strategy, but several NBA GMs say that he's been coy about individual workouts. He may let some teams come to see Yi in L.A., but he's being careful about who those teams are.
It's for good reason. Fegan has seen how a top international prospect can rise or fall depending on which team drafts him.
Darko Milicic came into the league with much more buzz than Yi, but landed on a loaded, veteran team with a head coach in Larry Brown who was much more interested in breaking him and changing his game than giving him playing time.
Andrea Bargnani of Italy was the first European to be drafted No. 1, and he landed in a very nuturing, Euro-friendly environment in Toronto.
At one point, when Bargnani fell out of the rotation during his rookie year, Toronto GM Bryan Colangelo let it be known publicly and privately that Sam Mitchell was to give him at least 20 minutes a night. Bargnani got the minutes and ended up finishing second in the Rookie of the Year race.
So draft position isn't the real issue for Yi. It's fit.
Of the teams in the lottery, Phoenix makes the most sense from a number of different angles. In Mike D'Antoni, the Suns have a coach who appreciates international players and practices a style of play perfectly suited to Yi's strengths, which are speed and shooting.
The Celtics are another team that could give Yi a long look if they don't win one of the two top positions in the draft. Al Jefferson proved that he could play center in the pros last season. He and Yi would make a formidable pair in the frontcourt.
The Bulls are another team that makes sense. Chicago is a perimeter-oriented team that needs a 4 who can both score in the post and stretch defenses.
A number of teams, including the Warriors and Lakers, have their eyes on Yi. To get him, they'll have to find a way to trade up in the draft -- but given his potential, you can't count them out.
Chad Ford calling Yi JianLian the 3rd best prospect in the upcoming draft.
Would appreciate the full article if anyone is an Insider.
Yi has talent, but I'm expecting a rough transition for him.
He doesn't have Yao's poise or personality.
Disappears for long stretches and gets discouraged.
Weak upper body and gets pushed around by NBDL-level Americans in the Chinese league. He's a 7 footer in the Tim Thomas mold.
That is a tall mobile SF, aka a tweener prospect.
He would do best on an open court team like the Suns.
He has a good turnaround J from 12 feet and face up range out to 16 or so.
But I doubt he'll get the space to use it like he can in China.
I'm not exactly calling him a bust, but I think he'll be a player who will be better on his second contract. Especially if he can bulk up and man the PF position 4 or 5 years down the road. I don't think he'll see much court time his first year.
Maybe he'll surprise me, but Wang ZhiZhi was a better player (or at least Yi's equal) in the CBA last season.
There are questions about Yi's age, as the Chinese used to routinely falsify ages for the youth tournaments. So he's listed as 20 (if I recall) but thought to be 22. That could affect his development curve, and any NBA serious about drafting him should try to get accurate records from China.