Quote from: kidcarter8 on April 06, 2010, 09:34:39 AM
Poor FG percentage often = solid opponent's defense.
Pure genius of Coack K says it is easier to imagine a W while Butler is attempting a half court heave to beat you.
That this almost DID occur doesnt change the wisdom.
Well, my point was that it is easier to imagine an
L if you don't go up 3.
And if you miss the FT (I think the Big Dukie was under 60% on FT), it's the same as intentionally missing.
I'd rather be up 3 and have my defense more set for a rushed final 3 second full court play. But I think the chances of winning were very good no matter which call was made.
To completely make up some numbers:
up by 3, you basically have a 0% chance of losing (a 4 point play on a long heave that goes in and a foul/made FT is negligible).
Up only 2, I'd say that you have maybe a 15% chance of losing.
Let's say that that extra second gives Butler an extra 5% chance of making a long tying basket (perhaps 10 feet closer on still a long rushed shot, but also the chance to defend the inbounds and maybe avoid a shot altogether or force a worse shot).
I'd certainly take a 20% chance of being tied over a 15% chance of losing.
Duke did pick up their defense late, but Butler got a bit shaky.
In the 2nd half, Butler didn't take it strong to the hoop.
A good example is when the lanky white duke blocked from behind a stocky Butler player who blew past him towards the baseline but then hesitated going for a short flip shot. Needed to take that to the rim or backboard hard.
Also, the Duke C had 4 fouls but then didn't get challenged down low again.
Butler settled for J's.
Towards the last few minutes, Butler got shaky on their ballhandling.
Had the ball stolen 40 feet from the basket, but the Butler player was able to tie up the stealer and the arrow was Butler's way. Another Duke player poked the ball out of bounds 30 feet away. And another play, Butler almost lost the ball on the perimeter. Dukes' defense and poise were better.