Escape from Elba
Exiles of the New York Times
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Poll
Question: What should be done to lower gas prices?
Allow drilling off shore and in Alaska
Allow drilling off shore, but not Alaska
Develop more oil from the lands the oil companies already have.
Take over Iraq and Iran
None of the above

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Author Topic: Bush Administration  (Read 155245 times)
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kidcarter8
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« Reply #16050 on: February 26, 2018, 04:39:43 PM »


kid do you ever wonder if Trump weren't riding the wave of the ongoing Obama recovery, where his approval rating, already scraping lows, might be?

I think you have to reword this one.

No need to kid 

Fine by me.

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kidcarter8
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« Reply #16051 on: February 26, 2018, 04:41:08 PM »

Obama a -20, -11  (strong approve, disappprove - overall approve, disapprove) at this point in his second year, by the way.  Trump now at -6, EVEN.

Maybe they are just polling Republicans

heh

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history#history_data_20100226

If you wanted the board to take your polling analysis more seriously, kidcarter8, I'd suggest you cite more than one (obviously flawed) polling source.

Its just not that interesting to know what Rasmussen only has to say.  What were the polling averages, kidcarter8?

"....obviously flawed.."

heh
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bankshot1
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« Reply #16052 on: February 26, 2018, 04:51:23 PM »


kid do you ever wonder if Trump weren't riding the wave of the ongoing Obama recovery, where his approval rating, already scraping lows, might be?

I think you have to reword this one.

No need to kid 

Fine by me.



Good.

As I said, "your inability to answer questions you don't like the answers to has been amply demonstrated."

No sense in imposing a tax that you know can't be collected.
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« Reply #16053 on: February 26, 2018, 04:51:46 PM »

Obama a -20, -11  (strong approve, disappprove - overall approve, disapprove) at this point in his second year, by the way.  Trump now at -6, EVEN.

Maybe they are just polling Republicans

heh

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history#history_data_20100226

If you wanted the board to take your polling analysis more seriously, kidcarter8, I'd suggest you cite more than one (obviously flawed) polling source.

Its just not that interesting to know what Rasmussen only has to say.  What were the polling averages, kidcarter8?

"....obviously flawed.."

heh

Yes, obviously flawed.  As proven by recent elections, and as shown by even a quick glance at current polling.  You 9for some reason...) insist on citing a poll that shows Trump's polling even when four other recent polls (CNN, Quinnipiac, Gallup, and Suffolk) all show him at 39% or less.

You cite Rasmussen because its numbers are consistently better for Trump.  That's you prerogative.  But don't ask the rest of us to think it interesting when the poll is proven to be unreliable.  And it reflects poorly on your judgment that you seem so unwilling to process information that does not fit the story you want to hear.
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kidcarter8
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« Reply #16054 on: February 26, 2018, 04:54:11 PM »

It hasnt proven to be unreliable
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kidcarter8
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« Reply #16055 on: February 26, 2018, 04:56:21 PM »

Slant was actually toward Clinton in 2016

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_larry_j_sabato/our_final_2016_picks

Unreliable - but toward the side you say it favors.

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« Reply #16056 on: February 26, 2018, 05:01:23 PM »

Slant was actually toward Clinton in 2016

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_larry_j_sabato/our_final_2016_picks

Unreliable - but toward the side you say it favors.

Apples and oranges, kidcarter8.  Their polling (the subject of this discussion) showed Trump winning the popular vote by three points.  He lost by two.

Here are some links to analysis of how well Rasmussen did in recent elections.  Consistently ranked amongst the worst.

https://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

https://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/2012-pollster-rankings-rasmussen-and-gallup-among-the-least-accurate/



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REDSTATEWARD
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« Reply #16057 on: February 26, 2018, 05:13:10 PM »


Thoughts on guns and tax cuts from the democrat’s favorite Billionaire, Warren Buffet;

Chief Executive Warren Buffett said it would be “ridiculous” for the conglomerate not to do business with gun makers, noting that he doesn’t want to impose his political views on Berkshire’s investment decisions or business operations.
American corporations have generally stayed away from politically sensitive debates, but some companies have assessed their exposure to gun-related issues or scaled back ties with the National Rifle Association following a Florida high-school shooting and pressure from students at the school.
Berkshire doesn’t invest in any gun manufacturers, he said on CNBC, but there is no rule that it wouldn’t. “I think what the kids are doing is very admirable, but I don’t think Berkshire should say we’re not going to do business with people who own guns,” Mr. Buffet said on CNBC. “I think that would be ridiculous.”
Mr. Buffett, a Democrat, was named to the advisory board of Everytown For Gun Safety, a group that advocates for gun control, in 2014. But “I think it’s a mistake to…start getting personal views and trying to impose them on an organization,” he said. Berkshire has more than 370,000 employees and a million shareholders, and “I’m not their nanny.”

ON THE TAX CUTS

It certainly means corporations will pay quite a bit less in tax than they otherwise would,” he said. “When we make money in 2018 domestically, and subject to a lot of little things here and there, basically we’ll be paying at 21 percent instead of 35 percent. That’s a lot of money.”
A large portion of our (2017) gain did not come from anything we accomplished at Berkshire.
The $65 billion gain is nonetheless real – rest assured of that. But only $36 billion came from Berkshire’s operations. The remaining $29 billion was delivered to us in December when Congress rewrote the U.S. Tax Code.
Our aversion to leverage has dampened our returns over the years. But ......we believe it is insane to risk what you have and need in order to obtain what you don’t need. We held this view 50 years ago when ....funded by a few friends and relatives who trusted us. We also hold it today after a million or so “partners” .
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kidcarter8
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« Reply #16058 on: February 26, 2018, 05:31:32 PM »

Rasmussen was closer to reality the entire campaign in 2016.

And the governors?

And the Senate?

How did Rasmussen do there?
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evvie
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« Reply #16059 on: February 26, 2018, 05:32:09 PM »

Red,

California pop: 39.5 million
Wyoming pop: 585,000

CA electoral: 55
Wyoming:       3

Why does a state with 70 times the population only have 18 times the electoral votes?
Please explain how this apportionment, where a WY vote is worth 4 CA votes, is fair and democratic.


U.S. Constitution - Article 2 Section 1
BTW, Correct apportionment is California has 53 Times the Wyoming electoral vote.
See one-man one vote.

My figures are correct.
They are not even close.
Quote

 Why should a state with 70 times the population of Wyoming only have 18 times its electoral votes?  
It doesnt, it has 53 Times the Electoral votes that Wyoming has.
I can’t believe you are so ignorant on such a basic element of our democracy like the Electoral College.
The US Census in 2010counted 309,250,000 Americans ( rounded). Dividing that figure by 435 US Congressional Districts you get 711,000 (rounded).  Up to 711,000 people is the minimum needed to qualify for ONE Congressional district in a state. Wyoming has 585,000 TOTAL residents meaning the state gets one Congressional District worth one Electoral vote.  California had 38 million residents in the last census. Dividing that number by 711,000 gives the state 53 Congressional Districts and 53 Electoral votes.
Since Article 2 Section 1 gives each state 2 Electoral votes for its US Senators that makes Wyoming’ s 3 Electoral votes and California’s 55.
All the rest of your post is gibberish.


Mr. Ward, you seem to be mixing up U.S. Reps and Electoral Votes.

55 to 3 is the Electoral Vote count, as you have stated multiple times.

53 to 1, while the U.S. Rep head count, is not what the 18 to 1 ratio was about.
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kidcarter8
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« Reply #16060 on: February 26, 2018, 05:38:29 PM »

(per Rasmussen)

In the prognostication business, what you predict at the end — when the drift of the year is usually fairly clear — is less significant than what you predict months before, at a time when the future is foggy. Starting in March, we have released a total of 17 Electoral College maps in the Clinton-Trump race. Not even on Clinton’s worst campaign days did we ever have her below 270 electoral votes.

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kidcarter8
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« Reply #16061 on: February 26, 2018, 05:39:03 PM »

Had to be that blasted voter suppression.
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FlyingVProd
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« Reply #16062 on: February 26, 2018, 05:42:40 PM »

When they made the "Harry Potter" movies, J.K. Rowling said that they could only hire British actors, and they had to shoot the movies in England, from what I understand, she wanted to help the people of her homeland. But, they were allowed to do the Wizzarding World Of Harry Potter at Universal.

I have a script for a film that I helped to write, and I own it, and I decided that my film has to be made here in Hollywood, with American actors. I was contacted early on by a producer in Canada who wanted me to bring my project to Canada, and I told him that my project has to be made here in Hollywood, my script is a Hollywood script. I will shoot it here. I will make films in Italy later on, and stuff, but I want the project that I have now to be shot in Hollywood, and I want to help to create local jobs for Americans.

And other Americans need to do the same thing, when you invent a new product, or write a movie script, or whatever, demand that it be made here in the USA.

People also need to support American jobs by buying products which were made in America.

Salute,

Tony V.

If you were to take the Canadian offer, mightn't that give you a greater chance of having future projects produced where you would like them to be done, increasing total jobs?

I don't really know how the movie industry works, so my question could be totally off base, in which case I apologize.

That is not what J.K. Rowling did, she demanded jobs for the British right out of the gate, she started out making demands. She knew the quality of her work, and she set conditions on her own terms. And what if one film was all that she was able to make?

And I did not think twice about it, when the guy in Canada asked me to bring my project to Canada, I told him that my script is a Hollywood movie, and that it needs to be made in Hollywood.

Certainly J.K. Rowling already had the success of her book to back her up, but she still did it all on her own terms.

It would have been nice to have been working and making films this whole time since then however. I have wasted a lot of time just trying to get the money to make my movie. Almost twenty years. Maybe I should have went to Canada and I could have been working and getting money and experience, but it never entered my mind at the time. I had faith in Hollywood, and that I could make my movie here. Hollywood is not dead yet, I still plan to make my movie here.

Salute,

Tony V.



So how many copies of your script's story have sold?

JK Rowling had about 4 best selling books before they settled down to shooting the movie of the first one.

Do what you want. But if you're going to pretend you're JK Rowling, you have to have a track record of JK Rowling level Success to back it up.

I certainly respect J.K. Rowling.

I need to get my script into the hands of Ariana Grande, I need to send a copy of my script to her agent. And I typed my script onto my computer so that I can send it as an attachment on an email.

Here is a video of Ariana Grande, it is a couple of years old, but that is fine. And for my movie she needs to have blonde hair.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WbCfHutDSE

I have a friend too who was in the Red Hot Chili Peppers, and Suicidal Tendencies, and other bands, and he has connections, and he is trying to help me. I also remained friends with a teacher from when I attended the AADA, and she is trying to help me. It is hard to make movies because of the high cost, and it is almost impossible to get the money to make a movie.

They told me when I started that it might take twenty years to become an over-night success.

But, if you make it, then it is all worth it, and you become eternal, you leave a part of yourself behind in your work.

They never said it would be easy, they said it will be worth it.

Anyhow, Ariana Grande is from Florida, and she is a real pro. I am sure she would do a great job on my film, and I can provide her with an acting coach if she wants one, my friend from the AADA would be more than happy to coach her. She could win an Oscar with this one. And if she agrees to work on my project then we can find the money. The issue of Director is another story, I would love to direct it myself, but it is harder to get the money without a well-known Director. (Hef was going to put up the money to make my movie if Oliver Stone would direct it, but Oliver said "No" and then Hef backed out. Hef was a good guy, he at least read my script and tried to help, may Hef rest in peace.) And we can shoot my film right here in Hollywood.

Salute,

Tony V.

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NYKnicks12
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« Reply #16063 on: February 26, 2018, 05:46:44 PM »


Thoughts on guns and tax cuts from the democrat’s favorite Billionaire, Warren Buffet;

Chief Executive Warren Buffett said it would be “ridiculous” for the conglomerate not to do business with gun makers, noting that he doesn’t want to impose his political views on Berkshire’s investment decisions or business operations.
American corporations have generally stayed away from politically sensitive debates, but some companies have assessed their exposure to gun-related issues or scaled back ties with the National Rifle Association following a Florida high-school shooting and pressure from students at the school.
Berkshire doesn’t invest in any gun manufacturers, he said on CNBC, but there is no rule that it wouldn’t. “I think what the kids are doing is very admirable, but I don’t think Berkshire should say we’re not going to do business with people who own guns,” Mr. Buffet said on CNBC. “I think that would be ridiculous.”
Mr. Buffett, a Democrat, was named to the advisory board of Everytown For Gun Safety, a group that advocates for gun control, in 2014. But “I think it’s a mistake to…start getting personal views and trying to impose them on an organization,” he said. Berkshire has more than 370,000 employees and a million shareholders, and “I’m not their nanny.”

ON THE TAX CUTS

It certainly means corporations will pay quite a bit less in tax than they otherwise would,” he said. “When we make money in 2018 domestically, and subject to a lot of little things here and there, basically we’ll be paying at 21 percent instead of 35 percent. That’s a lot of money.”
A large portion of our (2017) gain did not come from anything we accomplished at Berkshire.
The $65 billion gain is nonetheless real – rest assured of that. But only $36 billion came from Berkshire’s operations. The remaining $29 billion was delivered to us in December when Congress rewrote the U.S. Tax Code.
Our aversion to leverage has dampened our returns over the years. But ......we believe it is insane to risk what you have and need in order to obtain what you don’t need. We held this view 50 years ago when ....funded by a few friends and relatives who trusted us. We also hold it today after a million or so “partners” .


It’s a good thing the folks behind the South African divestment movement thought differently.
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« Reply #16064 on: February 26, 2018, 05:48:00 PM »

Rasmussen was closer to reality the entire campaign in 2016.

That is a nonsensical statement.  There is no way to know what the "reality" was at any given moment during the 2016 campaign.  

In past election years (including 2010 which you cited earlier) Rasmussen had a provable Republican bias.  Now Rasmussen is showing Trump with an approval rating between 10 and 14 points higher than other polling that has, in the past, proven more reliable.

You want to make an argument that Rasmussen is the one that has it right now?  Make it.  So far, you haven't.

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