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Russia will gain eastern Ukraine territories and hold them, as it has Crimea

5 (45.5%)

Russia will temporarily gain eastern Ukraine territories before being forced out of them

2 (18.2%)

Efforts to confront the Russian forces and get them out of Ukraine will lead to Putin's escalating and attacking NATO countries directly with missiles or other destructive measures

0 (0%)

The NATO/World response will be so mild that Putin will go ahead and take the rest of Ukraine

3 (27.3%)

Today Ukraine, tomorrow Moldova and who knows where else

1 (9.1%)

Total Members Voted: 10

Voting closed: March 01, 2022, 01:18:43 PM

[kidcarter8]

Putin will not throw nukes ... .




As stated all along.

[luee]

---Biden

[Holly Martins]

Putin will not throw nukes ... .




As stated all along.

Not by me, or Dmitry Peskov, who stated the "existential threat" standard back in March.

Long range rockets, that could hit major Russian population centers, could cross their stated bright line, and I have no certainty that they wouldn't throw a tactical nuke in reply.  It's vile and hypocritical but it is not beyond all possibility.  I don't trust Putin to give "existential threat" the same meaning that the rest of us do.  He needs to be taken out internally before we can find out more just how little he cares about rational rules of engagement.

[Holly Martins]

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/07/us-nuclear-strategy-cold-war-russia/638441/

https://archive.ph/8IJzp

[josh]

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/07/us-nuclear-strategy-cold-war-russia/638441/

https://archive.ph/8IJzp

(a) My hope is that the discussion is going on, but the public doesn't know about it.

(b) I'm not really sure what a strategy should be at anything beyond tactical nukes. "Okay, they are firing at us. Do we fire back and destroy the world or do we allow ourselves to be destroyed in the hope that the world survives, albeit under those villains' control?!"

[Holly Martins]

The only sane strategic scenario is omnilateral disarmament with an independent inspection body checking every single installation.  Then use the nuke materials as fuel in modular reactors to help the transition to green energy.  All the nuclear nations would reap significant economic benefits, as well as environmental ones (making weapons-grade U-235, or plutonium, is a dirty business).  The public really needs to be in on this discussion, if it's happening. 

[Holly Martins]

Looks at the long history of wishful thinkers that Vlad is sick...

https://www.politico.eu/article/backpain-cancer-and-covid-vladimir-putin-top-health-scares-throughout-the-years/

Also linked in that article is a Deutsche Welt piece on why doctors can't really diagnose illnesses on the basis of video stumbles or looking puffy.

[facilitatorn]

New top General for the invasion force. Sick or well, Vlad does not seem to like news of Russian ass getting kicked or the mass desertions from his war effort.

[josh]

New top General for the invasion force. Sick or well, Vlad does not seem to like news of Russian ass getting kicked or the mass desertions from his war effort.

Not seeing that, exactly.

Seeing that the general put in charge in early April, Dornikov, has not been seen for a couple weeks.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/11/europe/ukraine-donbas-battle-russia-cmd-intl/index.html

Seeing that 5 generals got fired (or rotated out, if we are to believe Putin's people).
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-fires-five-generals-russia-military-failures-ukraine-continue-1712053

Seeing yet another Russian general killed in Ukraine.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-general-killed-eastern-ukraine-russian-state-media-reporter-says-2022-06-05/

And I am seeing a claim that their first stage has been successful (!):
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-goals-scaled-back/31770879.html

But I am missing an appointment of a new general this week.

[facilitatorn]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/07/exhausted-russian-fighters-complain-of-conditions-in-eastern-ukraine

[kiidcarter8]

Thanks for the update, Fac.  You are valuable at times.

[facilitatorn]

We hope to one day regain your headspace as territory aligned with the Free World, Kid.

[Oiled]

Putin likens himself to Peter the Great, links imperial expansion to Ukraine war

- WaPo headine today.

Looks like he said what we already knew, out loud.

[Hairy Lime]

Putin likens himself to Peter the Great...

No wonder Sweden wants to join NATO.

[Holly Martins]

A nation that has lutfisk does not need NATO.