Escape from Elba

National => Campaign Trail => Topic started by: Administrator on July 30, 2018, 12:19:17 PM

Title: Campaign Trail
Post by: Administrator on July 30, 2018, 12:19:17 PM
Which candidates are best positioned to win?
Title: Re: Campaign Trail
Post by: kiidcarter8 on August 01, 2018, 12:58:09 PM











2020 - who else you got?
Title: Re: Campaign Trail
Post by: josh on August 04, 2018, 06:05:03 PM







Bllomberg (sic)





Who else?

September 2017 from WaPo
15. Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg

14. Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti

13. Sen. Tim Kaine (Va.)

12. Former Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick

11. Oprah Winfrey/Mark Cuban/Howard Schultz/Bob Iger/Sheryl Sandberg

10. Sen. Sherrod Brown (Ohio)

9. New York Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo

8. Sen. Cory Booker (N.J.)

7. Sen. Kamala D. Harris (Calif.)

6. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.)

5. California Gov. Jerry Brown

4. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.)

3. Sen. Chris Murphy (Conn.)

2. Former vice president Joe Biden

1. Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.)

March 2018 WaPo (with prior ranks - bold = last list, italics = group in last list)
"Worth watching: Former HUD secretary Julián Castro, California Gov. Jerry Brown, Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (Minn.), Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, Sen. Jeff Merkley (Ore.), former Starbucks chief executive Howard Schultz, Rep. Luis V. Gutiérrez (Ill.)"

15. Montana Gov. Steve Bullock (Previous ranking: N/A)

14. Oprah Winfrey (Previous ranking: 11)

13. New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu (Previous: N/A)

12. Former U.S. attorney general Eric Holder (Previous: N/A)

11. New York Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo (Previous: 10)

10. Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (Previous: 9)

9. Former Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick (Previous: 12)

8. Former Virginia governor Terry McAuliffe (Previous: 14)

7. Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy (Previous: 7)

6. New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (Previous: 4)

5. New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker (Previous: 6)

4. California Sen. Kamala D. Harris (Previous: 5)

3. Former vice president Joe Biden (Previous: 2)

2. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Previous: 3)

1. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (Previous: 1)

July 2018 (with prior ranks - bold = Sept list, italics = Sept group on list, red = March list, blue = March "worth watching)

"Worth watching: Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, former HUD secretary Julián Castro, California Gov. Jerry Brown, Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (Minn.), Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, Sen. Jeff Merkley (Ore.), former Starbucks executive chairman Howard Schultz, Rep. Luis V. Gutiérrez (Ill.), New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee"

15. Oprah Winfrey: Oprah stays on this list because she’s Oprah and has clearly shown some interest. But she continues to suggest she won’t do it. “In that political structure — all the non-truths, the bulls---, the crap, the nastiness, the backhanded backroom stuff that goes on — I feel like I could not exist,” Winfrey told British Vogue this week. “I would not be able to do it. It’s not a clean business. It would kill me.” (Previous ranking: 14, shared 11 in Sept 2017)

14. New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu: Landrieu is among the 2020 contenders with whom former president Barack Obama has spoken about the future of the party. He remains perhaps the most legitimate dark horse here. (Previous ranking: 13)

13. Sen. Sherrod Brown (Ohio): Despite being targeted by the GOP for defeat in his reelection campaign this year, he looks comfortable. He leads Rep. James B. Renacci (R) by double digits in all recent polls. As for 2020 signs? Apparently they have to wait. (Previous ranking: 10)

12. New York Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo: The most recent Siena College poll has Cuomo actually widening his primary lead over former “Sex and the City” star Cynthia Nixon; he led by 35 points. The primary is Sept. 13, and Cuomo’s performance could either kill or fuel his 2020 ambitions. (Previous ranking: 11)

11. Sen. Chris Murphy (Conn.): Murphy has said he won’t run, but the New York Times reported recently that he’s among those keeping tabs on much-sought-after New York donors. (Previous ranking: 7)

10. Former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg: Here we go again. The man who has threatened to run before as an independent is now reportedly considering running as a Democrat. And he’s putting $80 million behind Democratic candidates in 2018. This is my skeptical face — not only have we been down this road before, but Bloomberg is also among the oldest names on a list of already-quite-old candidates — he's 76 now. His money would, of course, instantly make him a contender. (Previous ranking: N/A, #15 in Sept. 2017)

9. Former U.S. attorney general Eric H. Holder Jr.: A surprise entry on this list last time around, Holder traveled to New Hampshire recently and had this to say about challenging Trump: “Two guys from Queens. That would be interesting. New Yorkers know how to talk to other New Yorkers.” Hmmm. (Previous ranking: 12)

8. Former Virginia governor Terry McAuliffe: McAuliffe may be undertaking the most important 2018 job on this list: Trying to elect Democratic governors. Given the party’s deficit in many key states, winning governor’s races is vital to preventing another GOP-controlled round of redistricting that could put Democrats on their heels for another decade. That said, it’s not exactly high-profile work. (Previous ranking: 8)

7. Former Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick: News about Patrick running keeps coming from people who seem to badly want him to run — rather than the prospective candidate himself. But he is hitting the campaign trail for Democrats and promising a decision by the end of the year. Patrick has been so quiet that people forget he’s there, but he’d instantly have a base of institutional support from Obama types. (Previous ranking: 9)

6. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.): Gillibrand remains one of the most likely candidates on this list, but her relationship with the Clintons is a big and potentially harmful subplot. Bill Clinton recently hit back after Gillibrand said, in retrospect, that he should’ve resigned the presidency in the late 1990s. “You have to — really ignore what the context was,” Clinton told CBS News. “But, you know, she’s living in a different context. And she did it for different reasons.” (Previous ranking: 6)

5. Sen. Cory Booker (N.J.): Booker recently offered some of his most extensive comments to date about 2020. The summation: He’s focused on reelecting Democrats in 2018 — and his travel schedule bears that out — and then he’ll see what happens. (Previous ranking: 5)

4. Former vice president Joe Biden: Polling this far out should be taken with a huge grain of salt if not outright ignored. But I suppose it’s worth something that Biden had the most people say they were open to voting for him in a new Vox Populi poll. That’s partially because of name ID, sure, but he was better off than Sen. Bernie Sanders and even others who were as well-known as he is. (Previous ranking: 3)

3. Sen. Kamala D. Harris (Calif.): Harris recently told MSNBC’s Kasie Hunt that she’s “not ruling out” a 2020 presidential run. But her actions may speak louder than her words. She was the first lawmaker to call for Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen to resign over the Trump administration’s family-separation policy. She has also somewhat recently written off accepting money from corporate PACs. (Previous ranking: 4)

2. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.): She continues to set the progressive tone, including being a leading early voice for the abolition of ICE. And some key Clinton backers sound intrigued by her. (Previous ranking: 2)

1. Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.): Sanders for some reason keeps insisting he won’t become a Democrat. He announced recently that he’ll seek the Democratic nomination in his 2018 reelection campaign, but also that if (and when) he wins the nomination, he’ll turn it down. Given his clear interest in seeking the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020, it seems an unnecessary bit of partisan hairsplitting. (Previous ranking: 1)

I really hope that Bernie and Joe don't run.

I am very convinced that Oprah, Hillary, and Elizabeth are not running.

I doubt that Patrick is running and similarly doubt that Bloomberg is running. That only leaves 9 of the recent group of 15, with five of them on your list.

Hickenlooper seems the likeliest to me to run of the "worth watching" names. I don't know Howard Schultz well enough to even form an opinion.
Title: Re: Campaign Trail
Post by: kiidcarter8 on August 27, 2018, 10:34:25 AM

(Holder is the one I am watching)
Title: Re: Campaign Trail
Post by: josh on August 31, 2018, 09:42:58 PM (

Given the discussion of Biden and Sanders, John Kerry seems like a fine idea.

In fact, why not put them all in - they are each of them likelier to be better prepared than anybody on the other side who is available (and healthy enough).

2020 Democratic candidates for nomination:
Hillary Clinton - October 26, 1947 (age 70 years)
Al Gore - March 31, 1948 (age 70 years)
John Kerry - December 11, 1943 (age 74 years)
Joe Biden - November 20, 1942 (age 75 years)
Jessie Jackson - October 8, 1941 (age 76 years)
Bernie Sanders - September 8, 1941 (age 76 years)
Mike Dukakis - November 3, 1933 (age 84 years)
Walter Mondale - January 5, 1928 (age 90 years)
Jimmy Carter - October 1, 1924 (age 93 years)

Or some fresh blood like:
Jeanne Shaheen - January 28, 1947 (age 71 years)
Patrick Leahy - March 31, 1940 (age 78 years)
Nancy Pelosi - March 26, 1940 (age 78 years)
Diane Feinstein - June 22, 1933 (age 85 years)

I suppose we can consider the children:
Eric Holder - January 21, 1951 (age 67 years)
Elizabeth Warren - June 22, 1949 (age 69 years)
Title: Re: Campaign Trail
Post by: Barton on September 07, 2018, 12:30:58 PM
It's impossible to predict how the aging process is going to go for anyone.  Or how that will impact judgment, overall mental acuity, and mood.  Or openness to change and new ideas.  Some people grow petrified in their thoughts, others keep learning and upgrading their understanding.  I did not know Warren was 69 - she is certainly taking good care of herself.  As an American woman, she would have, statistically speaking, about 6 years greater longevity than a male candidate.  (In the UK, the advantage is about 5 years)  Given the unique rigors of the presidency, I would feel some concern for a candidate who started their term of office at age 80 or later, no matter how competent and capable a statesman they might be.

Reagan, W.H. Harrison, Buchanan, George HW Bush, and Taylor were our oldest presidents.  Trump now stands as the oldest president, being a few months older than Reagan, the previous recordholder, at inauguration.   Not the most compelling lineup if you want to argue the virtues of older presidents.  :-)