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Messages - thebizneverloses

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1
Basketball / Re: Knicks
« on: August 08, 2019, 07:36:56 AM »
The emergence of Zach Collins being overlooked, I believe

14-9-2 with 2 blocks per 36 as a 21 year old

13.5 PER, up from 7.5 (if only we could see same from Frank)

4.2 mil this year.  Team option at 5.4 for '20-21 will certainly be exercised.

Really like Zach. Key question is whether he can guard smaller 4s.

2
"while Lillard usually takes all the late game clutch shots.  " - Go watch G7 against the Nuggets and that super long multi-OT game. CJ was taking (and making) the late game clutch shots. Dame is smart, he defers when CJ is cooking. Sometimes it is Dame, sometimes it is CJ.

You missed the context.  I was exactly talking about that CJ G7 and saying that it was anomalous as Lillard usually takes the clutch shots.  If CJ can start being a go-to option late, that would help diversify their offense.

I like Zach, but he might be asked to be more than he's ready for.  Big starting minutes.  While he needs to blend with Whiteside.  Pau should be a terrific mentor for Zach.  POR just needs Pau to manage half a season as a backup Big until Nurk returns.

No one doubts that they've had a pretty successful run and CJ has become a nice player.  But overall, I just don't see their path into true contention.  I like UTA and DEN better this year.  HOU is always tough, if somewhat weirdly constructed.  Both LA teams are going to be in the mix.  GS no creampuff, though will be better 2nd half when Klay returns.  Not going to be easy for POR to get homecourt this year.  Probably in the 5-6 range.  I'd say more like 6th.

I think they've taken a step back.
Aminu and Hark did a lot of good scrappy stuff -- screens, defense, boards.
7 new players to work in.  Really 3 new starters, with Zach, Hood and Whiteside.

Their bench looks real shaky.  It's Bazemore and .... <shrug>.  And Bazemore is a bit reckless and sloppy.  That's been a problem for them in the past.  When Lillard comes out, they lose the lead, and he needs to play big minutes and get worn down.  They haven't addressed that.


I'd agree with everything here. Watchout for Anfernee Simons off the bench though, he's expected to make a major leap.

3
Basketball / Re: Knicks
« on: August 08, 2019, 07:35:09 AM »
Are you trying to figure out if Portland is a true contender or if they’ll be any good. My guess is they’ll be pretty good.

Health, good fortune, and in season moves play too large a factor in title runs and things are so broadly shaken up to make calls on contention.

I think they will finish ahead of one or more LA teams in both the regular season and the playoffs.

Have to be considered a contender - off last season’s run.

May be tougher, with LA teams, Dallas, Denver progressing

Good hoops - good drama - good league(despite how shitty all these bench guys are - heh)

Is the implication Dallas is in the same tier as the LA teams and Denver? Laughable.

4
Basketball / Re: Knicks
« on: August 08, 2019, 07:33:56 AM »
Shaman's a gunner, and a good one.
A lot like Lou W or Reddick.

I don't think he has ballhandling or passing chops.

With Kawhi and PG, I don't think the 1 needs to have traditional playmaking chops. Shamet can definitely log a lot of time as the nominal PG, in a Mario Chalmers type way, next to those two.

5
He rarely blocks anybody or makes a key defensive play, while Lillard usually takes all the late game clutch shots.  Definitely something to build on for McC.
In the next series v. GS, McC shot 39% and POR was swept.
Which has been POR's standard fate in the Lillard-McC era
.

Lillard & McC have been the West Coast edition of Lowry & DeRozan.  A  competitive regular season duo who fade in the playoffs.  Last year was an exception (though they did flame out in a sweep).  Size, iffy defense and streaky shooting undermine them.  I think POR got a bit lucky last year to get a very good but inexperienced DEN team.  With Hood and Zach giving unexpectedly good support.

Going forward, losing Mo Hark and Aminu will hurt their defense and chemistry.  Whiteside not exactly known as a great teammate.
Will need Hood and Zach to be consistent.
Their bench looks awfully thin (Bazemore and a few young guys).
The Nurkic injury set them back.
47 W's is my call.

Whiteside and Bazemore are both big endings contracts, but the days of flipping those for value seems gone.   And POR can't really afford to add more long-term money.

I feel, Bo, like you're doubling down because you feel you have to. And in the process, making quite a lot of rather iffy statements. Like your ridiculous assertion that Lowry played poorly in these playoffs. I won't say everything is dead wrong (and I'm fine with your conclusion of 47 wins as a projection, although injuries tend to determine such things) - but there's a certain defiance despite, as I said, some of these statements being rather debatable.

"while Lillard usually takes all the late game clutch shots.  " - Go watch G7 against the Nuggets and that super long multi-OT game. CJ was taking (and making) the late game clutch shots. Dame is smart, he defers when CJ is cooking. Sometimes it is Dame, sometimes it is CJ.

"A  competitive regular season duo who fade in the playoffs.  " - CJ increased his PER the last two seasons from the regular season to the playoffs. Dame didn't, but he certainly had some spectacular moments during this playoff run (while generally struggling with his efficiency).

"I think POR got a bit lucky last year to get a very good but inexperienced DEN team." I'd say maybe they were lucky to avoid Houston, but at worst they were the 3rd best team in the W when all was said and done. Probably at worst the 6th best team in the league. That is still very good.

"Whiteside not exactly known as a great teammate" He's not my type of player either, but I'm actually optimistic that Portland is a good spot for him, and expect a bounce-back season. Dame is known as brilliant in the locker-room.

6
Basketball / Re: RJ Barrett
« on: July 18, 2019, 07:20:58 AM »
If his floor is Evan Turner his ceiling is around Ben Simmons.   Why not let RJ run the point?


RJ B
Wayne E
Marcus M
Julius R
Mitchell R

Bobby P  and TaJ first off the bench

IsoZo and Knox for scoring off the pine.

RJ can't defend 1s. He'll even struggle with 2s. DSJ has to play poorly to lose his spot at the 1.

7
Basketball / Re: Summer of movement
« on: July 18, 2019, 07:20:13 AM »
This free agency saw 6 of the All-NBA players switch teams.

I'm interested to see who trades for Kevin Love (Indiana?), Cp3 (Miami? Philly?), Beal etc.

The player that's the best fit for us is KAT.

Wolves will want to ditch one of Dieng and Wiggins - two of the most unappealing contracts in the league. We have the expirings and youth and picks to put together a package to take on both, which no other team can offer. If the Knicks really believe in DSJ, this trade works: http://tradenba.com/trades/r1L9HRabr

Would leave the Knicks with a starting lineup of DSJ/RJ/Wiggins/Mook/KAT, which could be playoff bound in the East but is still very young. Would have Frank/Zo/Bullocks or Braz/Vonleh/Dieng as a so-so bench with the potential to be much better next year. Would miss some of that veteran leadership, sure, but the point is KAT is an All-NBA type. Could even try to flip Wiggins and a couple of picks for Beal, which would definitely make for a dangerous team at that point.

I'd be aggressive after KAT.

8
Basketball / Re: Knicks
« on: July 18, 2019, 07:10:09 AM »
Just getting started:

How about Randle + Knox + Ellington + Franc
for
Brad Beal and Mahinmi?


Knix consolidate some players into an all-star.
Mahinmi an ending contract.


Think they'd want more, tbh. As you concede, they may not have a need for Randle. Ellington makes more sense on a contender. Ntilikina may or may not be rated by the Wiz.

I think we should target Beal. The most obvious deal is:

Beal/Wall/two or three minimum players for Portis/Mook/Payton/Ellington/Taj/Knox (or if we can get away with it, Trier)

Wall has the worst contract in the league. The Knicks are the team best suited to absorb that terrible contract since acquiring Beal would mean passing on free agency and building around Beal/Randle/DSJ/RJ/Knox or Trier/Meech/Ntilikina/Braz and a lot of picks which can be used to aggregate in trades. And then the Knicks just pay the inevitable luxury tax in a few years, which others teams will want to eschew.

The drawback is with that anchor of a contract it really becomes difficult to improve the team in the medium term. It's hard to see Wall returning to all-star form; more likely he isn't good enough or healthy enough to start 70 games a year ever again.

Would you do such a deal, given it does not involve picks?

A more complicated version of the deal is finding a team that really wants Mook for a playoff run and is willing to trade a pick for him. It's tough to see who that is - maybe Atlanta would trade the Brooklyn first and Chandler Parsons for Mook + Ellington? If so, we flip Parsons and the pick over to Washington so we can keep Knox (or maybe keep the pick ourselves?).

If we're trying to acquire Beal without taking on Wall, I'm afraid the price will get pretty high. They're going to ask for Mitch or RJ. Even if they agree to DSJ (say, DSJ/Portis/Ellington), they're going to want our pick this year and the Dallas pick next year.

If they'd take Knox/Portis/Ellington and our top-5 protected pick this year and our pick next year, I'd happily do it. I' m worried that won't be enough.

9
Basketball / Re: Knicks
« on: July 16, 2019, 08:02:34 PM »
If the best-case scenario for RJ unfolds - a big if, granted- he's going to be a good enough playmaker that you don't need a traditional PG at the 1. A scorer like Allonzo (if he develops enough to merit a starting spot) or the defensive-minded Ntilikina (if he becomes George Hill, which was my hope pre-draft) will suffice at the 1.

If he doesn't develop a reliable shot or become a stopper defensively, he risks becoming a burlier Evan Turner. That's his floor. His ceiling is very high, and predicated on his motivation to be great helping him overcome his apparent early shortcomings. I'm a bigger believer than most.

10
Basketball / Re: Knicks
« on: July 16, 2019, 06:11:17 PM »
Put me down for DSJ/RJ/Mook/Randle/Big Meech.

If I had to guess, I'd say it will be a long 10 man rotation to start, so the back-up five would be Payton/Trier/Knox/Portis/Taj.

That leaves Ntilikina, Ellington, Bullock (who plays ahead of Zo if healthy), Braz, Dot, with the latter two the most likely to be healthy scratches.

I just hope Fiz doesn't mess around with the rotation as much as he did last year.

What makes you so sold RJ can start at the 2 for us, Biz?

I know he's the #3 pick, but seems like he's got a lot of competition and has quite a bit of growing to do, it seems. You think he's ahead of IsoZo (who's more efficient)?

I see him getting more time at the 3 given his deficiencies and strengths (literally), but I think a lot of our "guards" will play there.

I think he's definitely a better fit at the 3, right now given the challenges I expect guarding quicker players.

BUT - Randle and Mook are going to start. And I think RJ, as the #3 seed and presumed new face of a franchise desperate for something along those lines, is going to be given every last opportunity to start, even if he isn't the best option in the immediate term.

11
Basketball / Re: Knicks
« on: July 16, 2019, 07:52:34 AM »
Put me down for DSJ/RJ/Mook/Randle/Big Meech.

If I had to guess, I'd say it will be a long 10 man rotation to start, so the back-up five would be Payton/Trier/Knox/Portis/Taj.

That leaves Ntilikina, Ellington, Bullock (who plays ahead of Zo if healthy), Braz, Dot, with the latter two the most likely to be healthy scratches.

I just hope Fiz doesn't mess around with the rotation as much as he did last year.

12
Basketball / Re: Knicks
« on: July 13, 2019, 07:25:35 AM »
So right now the Knicks have some 14 players with contracts who expect to see real minutes.

How is that going to work? How do you avoid bitterness and resentment?

Absolutely. If you're going to pick up players just to trade them for assets later, why not do what the Clippers did with Moe Harkless or the Nets with Allan Crabbe and so forth.

Instead, you've built an atmosphere that will almost certainly diminish the value of each asset on the team.

That said, I think Mook is the best player most likely to bring back a positive return, such as a late first rounder. He's probably the best player on the team, and he fits well with a lot of teams given his flexibility.

13
Basketball / Re: CP3
« on: July 13, 2019, 07:23:17 AM »
Will be moved again. You traded Russ because he is 30 and you're rebuilding.  You don't swap a 30 yr old for a 34 yr old and call it a day.

Looking like Miami

They can take Dragic and a pick - then move Dragic for more picks

heh

Doubtful Dragic would yield much in a trade at this point, given injuries. Unless he's only used to take back a bad contract with picks.

14
Basketball / Re: Knicks
« on: July 10, 2019, 10:12:36 AM »
Like us, they may have too many guys expecting minutes. Except their guys are better.

I think Bjelica plays more than Chaun. But Harry Barnes needs time at the 4 too. Going to be a squeeze for minutes when everyone's healthy.

The coaching change is odd, but Luke Walton has had good results on non-Lebron teams.

15
Basketball / Re: Knicks
« on: July 09, 2019, 09:45:27 AM »
If I told you the Knicks make the playoffs next year without making a trade, what would you have assumed had happened?

- 8th seed only required <40 wins
- Randle put up last year's numbers, maybe with a touch more efficiency from range
- Mitch led the league blocked shots/altered, and played well enough otherwise to justify starter minutes
- Bullock shot 40% from range while taking on the main defensive perimeter assignment every night
- RJ is at worst second in ROY voting, shot better than 40%, wasn't a typical 19-year-old disaster on D
- Portis accepted his role as a bench scoring machine
and most of all
- DSJ made a DeAaron Fox type leap and was in the mix for MIP, and one of Knox/Trier/Ntilikina joined him in the MIP conversation

I think none of those are individually infeasible, but it would take luck beyond what I've ever seen in a Knicks team for all those things to happen. If even two of the Mitch/RJ/DSJ scenarios happen, I'll consider the season an unqualified success.

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