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Messages - josh

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 464
1
Trump Administration / Re: Trump Administration
« on: Today at 05:51:43 PM »
In less than positive news:

https://www.livescience.com/cat-infected-covid-19-from-owner.html?fbclid=IwAR2sN9OVWEtTUNpOXgFSxSWXgfPUXkv05KhjcMU9PMLu3kT67ZU3wmqHfro

This is a solid news source and was posted by a solid academic who studies epidemics. I reluctantly think it is true.

You think WHAT is true?

Thanks for the link,  I like the site.

That the cat caught the virus from its owner.

2
Trump Administration / Re: Trump Administration
« on: Today at 05:32:02 PM »
Maryland's governor has finally issued the stay-at-home order and no gatherings of 10 or more.

3
Trump Administration / Re: Trump Administration
« on: Today at 05:28:30 PM »
In less than positive news:

https://www.livescience.com/cat-infected-covid-19-from-owner.html?fbclid=IwAR2sN9OVWEtTUNpOXgFSxSWXgfPUXkv05KhjcMU9PMLu3kT67ZU3wmqHfro

This is a solid news source and was posted by a solid academic who studies epidemics. I reluctantly think it is true.

4
Trump Administration / Re: Trump Administration
« on: Today at 05:27:09 PM »
I think we ARE "really on top of this thing",quoting Dr Jha...


Why would you, when he doesn't?!

6
Trump Administration / Re: Trump Administration
« on: Today at 05:10:12 PM »
This is an example of what I mean by our not even remotely being on top of the COVID-19 situation:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/30/arizona-coronavirus-covid-19-lockdown-shelter-in-place

7
Trump Administration / Re: Trump Administration
« on: Today at 05:00:48 PM »
Dr Ashish Jha - asked about the projection of 100,000 dead:


"That's a (sigh) pretty high number and obviously I think we should do everything we can to lower that number - but that may be the reality - unless we really get on top of this thing"
...
...
Jha talking like 100K dead is more of a worst case.

"that may be the reality - unless we really get on top of this thing"

No, he is not suggesting it is a worst case scenario - he is suggesting it would require a best case scenario to avoid it.

Birx is suggesting that in a best case scenario, we may still end up there.

And Kid? We're not at the "really get on top of this thing" stage now and there is no appearance that we will be there any time soon.

We still have states without the orders they need to control their case load's growth. NY may be getting where it needs to go, but anticipates leveling out in weeks, possibly. Louisiana is nowhere near that.

It's not negativity. It's refusing to make up things like "Jha talking like 100K dead is more of a worst case," when it is distinctly not what he said.

8
Trump Administration / Re: Trump Administration
« on: Today at 03:50:50 PM »

9
Trump Administration / Re: Trump Administration
« on: Today at 03:43:22 PM »
https://www.nbcboston.com/news/coronavirus/dr-birx-if-we-do-things-perfectly-we-could-see-100000-20000-deaths/2099426/

"White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx says that if the United States does everything perfectly, we could still expect to see 100,000-200,000 deaths from coronavirus."

At our current death to recovery rate (35%), that would be a mere ~285,000 - 570,000 cases. At the worldwide death to recovery rate (18%), that would be ~556,000 to 1,111,000 cases. For it to ultimately land on 1% mortality or 0.1% mortality, we'd need to see 10,000,000-20,000,000 cases or, for the lower rate, ten times that!

Me, I am hoping that we keep the total cases well below that 10,000,000 figure, let alone the 100 million figure, because I don't trust the death rate in the US to plummet down from 35% to 1% (let alone 0.1%).

And... I suspect Ambassador Dr. Birx would be among the first to tell you that there is no way in hell that we are going to do everything perfectly - we have already failed in that far too broadly!

10
Trump Administration / Re: Trump Administration
« on: Today at 03:21:01 PM »
Beyond the anti-malarials and the treatments discussed so far today:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/investing/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccines-drugs/index.html

11
Trump Administration / Re: Trump Administration
« on: Today at 03:12:45 PM »
More excellent progress


The hospital started recruiting donors from approximately 250 patients who have tested positive for COVID-19. Recruitment started as soon as the F.D.A. announced regulatory guidelines for the study last week, according to the statement.

“Convalescent serum therapy could be a vital treatment route because unfortunately there is relatively little to offer many patients except supportive care, and the ongoing clinical trials are going to take a while,” Dr. Eric Salazar, a physician scientist and principal investigator at the Methodist’s Research Institute, added in the statement. “We don’t have that much time.”


https://www.foxnews.com/science/coronavirus-pandemic-houston-hospital-plasma-transfusion

Last week, I linked the FDA permission for this having been given. But... you and I see things differently. I am glad they gave permission to start the experiment, and glad it's begun, but I don't see this as progress - it has the potential for progress, but that's all.

And in answer to your question about treatments, you can just read your post:
"(U)nfortunately there is relatively little to offer many patients except supportive care, and the ongoing clinical trials are going to take a while.”

One study, but uncontrolled, has already been completed:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763983

Cautious, small positives. We'll take any positives at all, but the most serious cases will need more help than this article suggests will come from this process.

Still, this is way early in the sequence of events to know what the promise truly is.

12
Trump Administration / Re: Trump Administration
« on: Today at 02:33:12 PM »
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/27/cnn10/ventilators-supply-government-warnings-coronavirus-invs/index.html

Trump said "nobody in their wildest dreams" could have imagined the demand for ventilators that now exists.

Perhaps not, but in report after report they spelled it out specifically, going back at least 17 years.

It's on Trump's administration, but only as the most recent in a long line of incompetent decision-makers with HHS, with the National Stockpile, with the hospitals themselves, and with the state agencies involved as well.

Sure, Trump is wrong that nobody could have seen this coming, but... does it matter much if the folks who could were roundly ignored?

13
Trump Administration / Re: Trump Administration
« on: Today at 02:27:57 PM »

COLUMBUS, Ohio – The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Columbus-based Battelle’s system that can decontaminate thousands of masks a day, according to a statement from the company.
Battelle on Sunday night said that the approval is for the use of the technology at “full capacity.”

Good news, Ward. Thank you.

But it is pretty funny your posting this immediately after complaining about the lack of source in mine.

14
Trump Administration / Re: Trump Administration
« on: Today at 02:26:52 PM »
We do have a substantial lead in critical care and ICU neds per capita. It's something like 50% ahead of the nearest other countries.

But among the factors involved are these:
Quote
First are distinct differences in patient populations. Data comparing middle-aged Americans with a similar population in the United Kingdom demonstrated a higher burden of chronic illnesses among the American cohort –double the rate of diabetes and a third higher rate of hypertension. Such comparisons are essential to understanding the relative healthcare needs of populations. Frequency of interventions and surgical procedures may also impact the need for intensive care. For example, patients who receive a liver transplant will require a stay in an ICU. This need for intensive care is, therefore, driven not solely by disease, but also by management choices. An older study comparing admissions to intensive care in Alberta (Canada) and western Massachusetts (US) found that ICU days per million population were two to three times higher in western Massachusetts, primarily due to a higher ICU incidence (i.e. percent of hospitalized patients treated in the ICU). This discrepancy was driven by all of the factors described above.

And in addition to having 50% more beds than Canada, they cost 85% more per bed.

(figures used are 2012. It is likely worse since then.)
Sourceless information.

Good for the goose, good for the gander, Ward.

You often give us sourceless info, but without even indicating it wasn't yours to start with. Now you're complaining?

Hah!

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3551445/

Now will you comment on content?

15
Trump Administration / Re: Trump Administration
« on: Today at 12:49:04 PM »
We do have a substantial lead in critical care and ICU neds per capita. It's something like 50% ahead of the nearest other countries.

But among the factors involved are these:
Quote
First are distinct differences in patient populations. Data comparing middle-aged Americans with a similar population in the United Kingdom demonstrated a higher burden of chronic illnesses among the American cohort –double the rate of diabetes and a third higher rate of hypertension. Such comparisons are essential to understanding the relative healthcare needs of populations. Frequency of interventions and surgical procedures may also impact the need for intensive care. For example, patients who receive a liver transplant will require a stay in an ICU. This need for intensive care is, therefore, driven not solely by disease, but also by management choices. An older study comparing admissions to intensive care in Alberta (Canada) and western Massachusetts (US) found that ICU days per million population were two to three times higher in western Massachusetts, primarily due to a higher ICU incidence (i.e. percent of hospitalized patients treated in the ICU). This discrepancy was driven by all of the factors described above.

And in addition to having 50% more beds than Canada, they cost 85% more per bed.

(figures used are 2012. It is likely worse since then.)

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