Escape from Elba
Exiles of the New York Times
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1  Sports / Football / Re: College Football on: July 20, 2018, 10:05:45 AM
Thanks for posting.  Some of the stats are interesting in that I had not seen them presented that way.

I think the feeling internally is that the defense should be lights out this year. There is still concern about the OL.

I think for the Trojan defense to shine, and tried to point out, the interior DL needs to be much better than last year.

IMO they have a couple of SEC type guys that could do that.

As to the OL, well first of all it's offense.  Undecided

But the Trojans have a wealth of talent at those positions IMO. Just a matter of meshing.
2  Sports / Football / Re: College Football on: July 13, 2018, 10:56:16 AM
Nice piece on Helton and USC:


https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/5/31/17366488/usc-football-2018-preview-schedule-roster

Any program can succeed; some just have far greater margin for error. Within the Pac-12, as discussed in a recent Podcast Ain’t Played Nobody, we have some pretty good examples of this.

Oregon State has had minimal margin for error. A coach has to do very good things just to remain at a good level, and then he has to keep doing very good things. At USC, however, you merely have to be good to be very good.

...


... USC’s offense was mostly awesome. The Trojans were efficient (12th in success rate) and packed big-play potential (seventh in gains of 20-plus yards per game), and while we paid a lot of attention to Darnold’s turnover problems, especially during the run-up to the NFL draft, those concerns were a bit overblown — the Trojans had poor fumbles luck, and nearly half of Darnold’s interceptions came in the first three games.

Still, there were glitches.
1. The Trojans suffered just enough negative plays to create too many third-and-longs. They were excellent at generating first downs before third down even came up, but their average third-down distance was 7.5 yards, 106th in the country.
2. They were downright bad in the red zone. They averaged a paltry 4.2 points per scoring opportunity (first downs inside the opponent’s 40), 92nd in the country. This was never more of an evident problem than in the Cotton Bowl loss to Ohio State, in which they created seven scoring opportunities to the Buckeyes’ three but somehow managed seven points.

These are not guaranteed to improve, especially with a less experienced QB and skill corps.
...


... We’ll learn a lot about Helton this fall. He and his staff will have as many blue-chippers as ever to sift through, but they have to figure out what went wrong on run defense, and on offense they have to replace not only Darnold, but also leading rusher Ronald Jones II and two of last year’s top three receivers (Deontay Burnett and Steven Mitchell Jr.). ...


There's a lot of blah blah blah about offense, but the part that really counts is this:


...USC’s defense caught fire about a month into 2016 and finished 20th in Def. S&P+, but it still had a few issues. The big plays were enormous, both via run and pass, the Trojans weren’t very good in the red zone, and while they were efficient, they didn’t make many havoc plays with their front seven.

Coordinator Clancy Pendergast shored up those weaknesses reasonably. USC improved from 107th to 75th in IsoPPP, from 88th to 33rd in points allowed per scoring opportunity, and from 73rd to 32nd in front-seven havoc rate. Success!



But,

They also plummeted from 19th to 91st in rushing success rate and grew even less disruptive against the run, falling from 80th to 113th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line). They had a fantastic pass defense, and their pass rush improved dramatically, but it didn’t matter because opponents didn’t really have to pass.
...




...The line is a bit unproven after Rector and senior end Malik Dorton; sophomores Brandon Pili and Liam Jimmons saw some rotation time, but Pendergast will likely be leaning on a pair of blue-chip redshirt freshmen — end Jay Tufele and tackle Marlon Tuipulotu — to help with both depth and a little bit of play-making.

...

Cappy's Notes: Tuipulotu is coming off lower back surgery. It's been my experience that this is one of the two worst types of injuries for a DT. Not to say he won't be fine but it's a long season. Of the two Tufele is the guy I'm expecting to shine this year. Bigger stronger faster, that sort of thing. But don't discount the importance of Brandon Pili. If Helton and Co are looking for a run stuffer they need look no further than this cat.


Lastly:

...Even if the pass rush regresses a bit, the secondary should be fine. The Trojans must replace safety Chris Hawkins (6.5 TFLs, three passes defensed) and corner Jack Jones (11 passes defensed), who is evidently academically ineligible for 2018. But they’re stocked at safety, where Marvell Tell III and nickel back Ajene Harris (combined: four TFLs and 14 passes defensed) are back, as are former star recruits like junior Ykili Ross, sophomore Bubba Bolden, and redshirt freshman Isaiah Pola-Mao. And they still have Iman Marshall as an anchor at corner.

Either redshirt freshman Greg Johnson (you guessed it, a former blue-chipper) or one of two seniors (Isaiah Langley or Jonathan Lockett) will need to step up in Jones’ absence, but odds are in USC’s favor. If the run defense is good, the pass defense should again be awesome.
...
3  Sports / Football / Re: College Football on: July 06, 2018, 10:37:13 AM
https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/lsu-football/numbers-2017-nfl-draft-caps-historic-decade-lsu-secondary/




4  Sports / Football / Re: College Football on: July 05, 2018, 07:17:02 PM
A nice liberal spread no doubt.
5  Sports / Football / Re: College Football on: July 05, 2018, 11:20:38 AM
Neighbors put on a nice display of fireworks last night.

Living so close to PA as we do you can really get some heavy duty stuff.
6  Sports / Football / Re: College Football on: July 05, 2018, 11:13:42 AM
http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/23933358/ohio-state-buckeyes-freshman-marcus-hooker-charged-dui


The kid reminds me of me when I was 17. Smiley


Can't get away with that shit anymore.


7  Sports / Football / Re: College Football on: July 04, 2018, 02:47:04 PM
Happy Independence Day to all. Smiley
8  Sports / Baseball / Re: American League on: June 30, 2018, 09:51:04 PM
Sox got better. Yankees turn to take an ass kickin.
9  Sports / Football / Re: College Football on: June 30, 2018, 09:25:17 PM
Just making an observation bro.
10  Sports / Football / Re: College Football on: June 29, 2018, 09:55:34 PM
Going back five more years changes the numbers very little.

It is very unusual for their average stars to be this low after nine recruits.

If this pattern continues, when all of the dust has settled, this may be the Trojans lowest ranked recruiting class in the last 10(or 15) years.

Which was 2013, the only time in the last 15 years that USC has finished outside of the Top 10 in recruiting at #13.
11  Sports / Football / Re: College Football on: June 29, 2018, 10:37:01 AM
It's not the number or recruits they have at this point, nine is actually average to pretty good. It's the 'supposed' quality of the recruit I'm referring to Scott.

I think it is very unusual for them.



I'll give you the numbers broken down and let you see what I'm talking about.

For that we will use the first 9 recruits of the Trojans for the last ten previous years:


2019: 1 four star, 7 three star, 1 no star

2018: 2 Five star, 7 four star (Note: this class had NO 3 star recruits)

2017: 7 four star, 2 three star

2016: 1 five star, 4 four star, 4 three star

2015: 7 four star, 2 three star

2014: 2 five star, 2 four star, 4 three star, 1 no star

2013: 4 five star, 5 four star(Note: this class had NO 3 star recruits)

2012: 1 five star, 6 four star, 2 three star

2011: 6 four star, 2 three star, 1 two star

2010: 2 five star, 6 four star, 1 three star

2009: 3 five star, 6 four star


So as the stats indicate:


In the previous 10 years 2019 is clearly an anomaly so far with only one four star and five in the first 9 recruits.


Additionally 70% of the time the classes had at least 1 five star recruit. The 2019 class has none.

Sifting through this information we come to the following conclusion,

Bottomline:


The average number of combined four and five star players in the first nine recruits for the previous ten years was 7.4



This year's class has 1.


No need for panic of course, they'll undoubtedly pick up. Just like Bama ultimately picked up last year.


I was just saying that it was a little unusual for them. Which, as you can see by the numbers, it is.  








12  Sports / Football / Re: College Football on: June 28, 2018, 01:18:11 PM
Hey Scotty, last year Bama was lagging way behind in the recruiting rankings.

This year they are #1 and it's the Trojans that are down on the list.



Are you talking about for next year?  The Trojans always start slow and finish strong.  We have this conversation every year.

I was referring to the stars of the USC recruits. Usually they have a small cadre of four and five stars and are regularly near the top of the list when going by average stars.

It's nothing to see the Trojans down in the 40's like they currently are this year. As you say it's the norm for them and when factoring average stars they usually hover around the top 5.

But this year with 9 recruits they are only about 50th in average stars. Very usual for the Men of Troy Scotty.
13  Sports / Football / Re: College Football on: June 27, 2018, 03:28:25 PM
Hey Scotty, last year Bama was lagging way behind in the recruiting rankings.

This year they are #1 and it's the Trojans that are down on the list.

14  Sports / Football / Re: College Football on: May 31, 2018, 12:37:48 PM
Selling my house so I’ve been spending all of my free time renovating and sleeping. I’m competently handy with a saw and tape measure. And paying someone that’s actually good at it will cost a man big time these days.

Completely ripped out one of the bathrooms. New subfloor, new floor, new walls ceiling, new ceiling, new ceiling fan, medicine cabinet, vanity, lights, installed an in-ceiling shower light just to show off, towel hangers, etc etc, agggghhhhh somebody shoot me! The contractor wanted $6500.00, I did it for about $2800.00 in materials, a couple of gallons of sweat, one hammered finger, a few elbow owies, and varieties of sawdust up my nose and down my neck. Oh yeah, caulking sucks and plumbing blows.

I also took a couple of weeks off down in the low country to rest my weary bones afterwards. Came home and mowed my three acres of hay fields that had hitherto been known to me as my lawn, trimmed the Triffids crowding my lighthouse, plucked the petunias, peed on the peonies, and carried my duffel bag of mail inside. Most of it to be run through the shredder. 

Now the garage is next. It was never finished on the inside so I’m going to insulate it and put up inside walls, wire new ceiling lights, put up a new ceiling, paint it inside and out, maybe even resurface the concrete floor.

Popped in a couple of times and saw nothing much going on in the off-season, so I didn’t think I’d be missed. But since Stevie boy is bleeding out the ass trying to get me to fucking say something I figured I’d better, before the anemic fuck died of blood loss.


I mean shit, Skippy hasn't said nary a word either. But nobody seems to give a shit about that.  Oh wait....  Cheesy
15  Sports / Football / Re: College Football on: February 21, 2018, 11:25:45 AM
Not that this back and forth isn't fascinating in a 1970s broken record sort of way...

But it got me looking for literally anything that had to do with something interesting in college football
http://collegefootballnews.com/2018/02/old-dominion-monarchs-2018-prespring-rankings-analysis-no-118

How did the SEC miss this cupcake. Saban must be slipping.

Alabama and Georgia are the two best teams in the nation.

OSU nor any other Big 10 team is not.
Ohio State, or another Big Whatever team will be in the championship tournament this year. Georgia will not.

Maybe.

But if OSU faces Georgia in the playoff they will lose.
But if OSU faces Alabama in the playoffs they will win. Gosh, that kind of thing is easy to type, isn't it?

Lots of stupid things are easy to type. You have demonstrated that several times in the 20 years of posts you've written. And you should learn to quit while you are getting a mudhole cyberstomped in your ass. And stop your constant whining and make it appear like you can rub two brain cells together and still have one left over to tie your shoes. You don't.  You would think someone of your age would have learned the first rule of losing an argument. Suck it up be a man and get over it. But no you would rather bring it up over and over again thinking the old man will some day lose his will not to take your shit. But you would rather bully and insult and pray no one notices how full of shit you are.(I liked that one as it really does fit you whether you have the nuts to admit it or not[you clearly don't]) Because you are actually too lacking in real guts to engage, to evaluate, to actually listen to what was told to you and to admit the validity of anyone's point of view except your own.(Again, it fits you so why change it) But no need to apologize and I would never ask you to Stevo I realize that you just can't help yourself as being proven wrong seems to so totally shake your fragile view that you can never be wrong, especially to me, because blood apparently runs out your ass when it happens. And it's amazing you haven't needed massive transfusions because of the zillions of times it has happened. Get some sun as I'm sure your anemic posting ass makes you look as white as a ghost to anyone that is around you. But otherwise have a nice day.


fify
 


Thank you.




You are quite welcome! Admitting I have self esteem a problem is the first step to a cure! But since I think my shit doesn't stink like any other normal person don't hold your breath.


Okay. Besides when I hold my breath for too long of a time I'm sure I look like Jimmy. Oh and remember the last time we did this I was man enough to give you the last word.

Do you have those same guts? I guess we'll see won't we.  Grin

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