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Messages - bodiddley

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Trump Administration / Re: Trump Administration
« on: Today at 03:50:31 PM »
Marco Rubio, speaking truth

What the hell was he trying to say?

Trump Administration / Re: Trump Administration
« on: Today at 12:33:51 PM »
I always thought oil was too important a commodity to be left to market fluctuations and uncertainty.  I thought that major consuming nations and major exporters should strike a deal that oil would be stay within a given range, which I'd probably peg it at between $30-$50 per barrel.  Let market forces move it up and down within those parameters.  That way you don't have shocks where the price hits over $100 a barrel and airlines and manufacturers and drivers don't get walloped; while you avoid valleys such as $20 where oil producers cannot meet their budgets.  Such price stability would be beneficial to both buyers and sellers, as well as oil&gas companies.   

Every 5 or 10 years you can hold some meetings to determine if the range should be adjusted.  With some limit that it can only be adjusted $10 per decade (or somesuch).

Trump Administration / Re: Trump Administration
« on: Today at 10:30:54 AM »
Fucking heh ...

Trump Administration / Re: Trump Administration
« on: Today at 10:12:42 AM »
And to not use surgical masks

Surgical masks would have been fine and beneficial for those in cities and any suburban hotspots.  They are designed to be disposable for hospital staff.  But regular people can and do rewash and reuse surgical masks. I've re-used surgical masks plenty, then washed and reused them some more.  You don't need excellent protection when you go out in public in low risk environs.  Any kind of mask will do.

Again, if everyone is wearing a mask, you have two layers of protection.  That plus hand washing, social distancing, temp checks, a ban on large groups = a thorough response and will reduce transmissions.

We're talking about what were 80 cent surgical masks, probably even cheaper when you buy them in bulk.  Let's say everyone in NYC started wearing face masks on March 1, or even on March 5th when I got back and started haranguing folks here about the need.  Well, that's 12M masks, not all of which need to be surgical masks.  But let's go with 12M surgical masks at a cost of $1 per.  (they should have been handed out for free -- but folks would've paid whatever cost). 

If they had implemented business closures, face mask wearing, temp checks and social distancing then, there's no reason that transmissions wouldn't have been greatly reduced, possibly minimal.  Shanghai had roughly 500 total cases.  Let's say NYC could've limited cases to 2K - 3000 infections.  A made-up number but isn't that where SF and LA are around.  And they didn't deploy face masks, which would have lowered transmissions.

By deploying 12M masks to the public in NYC on or about March 1st and mandating everyone wear them in public (it was never mandated, but just strongly recced in Shanghai), there would have been many fewer Covid-19 cases, and with many fewer contagious patients they could have easily saved 12M surgical masks used in hospitals dealing with the 50K infected NYers.  So there wouldn't have been a shortage of masks, hospital beds, ICU rooms, isolation wards and ventilators.  Or any shortage would have been minor and manageable.

You don't seem to understand anything about face masks and/or the use of them during a pandemic.  They fit well.  They can be reused.  They provide two layers of protection against viral transmission.  They keep everyone on alert because it is sobering when every person you meet is wearing a mask.  Everyone who has the virus and is contagious will be largely prevented from spreading the virus in public places.  Anyone not infected reduces their chance of inhaling or otherwise coming into contact with the virus.

Face masks combined with other measures (closures, social distancing, hand washing, temp checks) make for a strong regimen of protection and helps stop transmission chains.  Outside of Wuhan and Hubei where the outbreak originated before strong precautionary measures were in place, China avoided serious outbreaks.  The US dickered and NYC became New Wuhan, NJ mimicking Italy. 

Fuckin' heh ...

Trump Administration / Re: Trump Administration
« on: Today at 02:03:44 AM »
LA was the first place in the US to issue a directive to wear masks in public. 

And to not use surgical masks

Sure, because there is a shortage (the gov't never fixed).

Nice to see you've admitted you were wrong.

Oh wait ...

Trump Administration / Re: Trump Administration
« on: April 02, 2020, 05:25:03 PM »
White House expected to recommend Americans wear cloth masks to prevent coronavirus spread

Took til April.
Hasn't happened yet.
Likely to be a suggestion.
There will be uneven compliance and resistance.

LA was the first place in the US to issue a directive to wear masks in public.  March 31, i think it was.

Only  a month later than it should have occurred, but slow progress.

Basketball / Re: Knicks
« on: April 02, 2020, 01:21:50 PM »
I dont recall any negativity here re:  Knox.

I was a bit surprised the Knix went for the young unformed potential of Knox.
I thought they'd play it safer with one of the Bridges.  I kind of liked the Knox gamble.  Hoped they knew what they were doing.

Basketball / Re: Knicks
« on: April 02, 2020, 02:57:06 AM »
2019, I didn't look too far, since the Knix had the 3rd pick.

RJB was the consensus, though Hunter and Culver sounded like good 3&D prospects.
RJB turned out to have the shooting and defensive shortcomings that were noted pre-draft.

No one else really seemed a threat to go 3rd, so I didn't check up on the others and who might be a bust.

Basketball / Re: Knicks
« on: April 02, 2020, 02:52:11 AM »
One game I like to play is identifying the future busts who are projected to go Top 10.  Because every year there are 2 or 3 busts in the Top 10.  So you should be able to spot them beforehand. 

For that 2018 draft, I had MoBomb pegged as the easy mark.
Sexton a potential bust.
And Knox was seen as high risk/high reward.  Too young to have a game yet, but good physical tools.   So far La Bamba and Knox are the weak links.

Otherwise a pretty strong top of the draft, with the Top 5 all looking pretty good.  All averaging 15 ppg or more. 2 all-stars (Luka & Trae)

Basketball / Re: Knicks
« on: April 02, 2020, 02:39:05 AM »
Watched some Cole Anthony highlights.  He sure killed Notre Dame.
I'm not comfortable evaluating these short long-range chuckers.  I don't think some of his fakes and drives would work in the NBA.  But of course he'll grow and adapt.  I'd have to see CA in high school and check his progress in college. 

Overall, I wasn't too impressed, but he only played part of his freshman year, and I don't watch college ball so don't know the level and such.  And that type of player isn't my fave, though in the wake of Steph and Trae is becoming more prevalent.  (Coby White, Sexton, etc).

Would have been real useful to see him develop over the course of a full college season.  He had meniscus surgery.  Not sure how much of a concern that is going forward.  If any.    Not what I'd be looking to add to these Knix -- a Coby White/Sexton -- but I do have a bias against jack-it-up, head-down PG's.  And really would need to see more to project better. Probably watching a few whole games would help, but I'm not that invested.

I'm not a draftnik.

Basketball / Re: Knicks
« on: April 02, 2020, 02:26:16 AM »
That said - no way is Haliburton a 7.

Shai Gilgous Alexander wasn't considered a top 10 pick either.

SGA was definitely moving up the draft boards based on his workouts.  He had enough buzz the last two weeks prior to the draft that he was moving into our range (#9).  Shai beat out one Bridges to be the #11 pick.  And obviously Shai would have been a better pick than Knox (#9).  So I agree with Kam, you tab the guy you want and don't worry much if the consensus has him lower down.  The consensus would always be substantially reshuffled on redraft two or three years out.

I never know how to feel about those late risers.  It's mostly based on individual workouts, maybe some 3-on-3 runs.  Some guys are great workout guys, that doesn't translate to game skills.  Some guys have game savvy and don't look as good in workouts.  Some guys have just prepped better, practiced standard drills, and are in better condition, but not necessarily great players.
It's tricky.  But often late risers do well.

Ty H could be a bargain since injury hurt his stock.  And teams want to investigate that funky shot release.
Workouts will be very important, since so many of this year's top prospects played limited college hoops or played overseas.

Trump Administration / Re: Trump Administration
« on: April 02, 2020, 01:52:40 AM »
I have no idea how many were infected in total in Shanghai.  The official tally is 522 confirmed cases and 6 deaths, with 172 still being treated.  Shanghai employed an 8 week voluntary lockdown in which all non-essential businesses were closed (gun stores, video game sellers and religious buildings didn't get exceptions -- okay so there are no gun stores ...).  Then a 2-week work-at-home gradual re-opening.

Masks, temp checks, limiting access to buildings and alley communities, recording visitors info, etc were deployed and still in use.  All of this was effective and Shanghai, very much China's equivalent of NYC, didn't have any significant outbreak.  In fact, Shanghai sent large numbers of doctors and nurses to Wuhan/Hubei to deal with the outbreak there.   At a nearby hospital where I have friends, the 350 medical professionals who were sent to Hubei just returned to SH two days ago.

Officially the Shanghai count of 522 positives includes 183 who arrived from international travel (including an additional roughly 50 infected returnees over the past 2 weeks), and another 111 who came into Shanghai from other provinces during the outbreak period (some of these likely from Hubei prior to the lockdown there).   Which seems to indicate that there were just 228 cases of transmission in Shanghai.  Which seems very good for a city of 20+M.

Trump Administration / Re: Trump Administration
« on: April 02, 2020, 01:45:10 AM »
“The claim that the United States has more coronavirus deaths than China is false,” Senator Ben Sasse, a Nebraska Republican, said in a statement after Bloomberg News published its report. “Without commenting on any classified information, this much is painfully obvious: The Chinese Communist Party has lied, is lying, and will continue to lie about coronavirus to protect the regime.”

A couple points:
In Hubei (maybe everywhere?) China didn't count in their official tallies people who tested positive and were asymptomatic.  Partly because 1) the tests they used were not very accurate, so they relied on confirming positive test results with pulmonary scans, basically checking for pneumonia.  Asymptomatic folks weren't double-checked that way, but just told to isolate. 
2) Due to a major outbreak, China went with a pretty strict mandatory lockdown in Wuhan and Hubei.  So they weren't really concerned who was positive or not, since they had a province-wide quarantine.  Instead, they focused on who had symptoms, were presumably contagious and needed treatment.  3) Supposedly China ran out of test kits in Hubei at some point, though that was never confirmed.

China said this week they would release the figures on asymptomatic cases that tested positive.  Whether they will do so and if those number will double the test-positive cases in China is unclear.  This is most likely what Sasse is grousing about.

The official case numbers for every country reflect the level and availability of testing, and the quality of the test used.  No one believes the number of test-confirmed cases = the actual number of infected.  It's a proxy and mostly a sign of how many people had symptoms and sought testing/treatment. Quicker, more reliable and widespread testing, which is becoming more available, will of course uncover more infected people.

China, like almost every country, didn't take the virus seriously or take early action until there was a significant and dangerous outbreak.  But China did take measures to contain and limit the spread after things got bad.  These were effective and provided a pretty good model on what works.

Basketball / Re: Knicks
« on: April 02, 2020, 12:52:39 AM »
You can get by with a guy like Elf as your starting PG.  IND did with Collison; ORL with DJ Augustin.  Though both of those guys became strong 3 point shooters.

If Elf (or Franc) is running your team, you definitely need shooters.
After we traded MaMo, we had no one who shot better than league average.
Portis or Dot were our best 3-point shooters.

Elf + inside Bigs + callow Yute = a bad team

I'm fine with bringing back Elf.  Knix certainly can use more continuity.  But he doesn't project as a long term starter.  Not on a good team.

Basketball / Re: Knicks
« on: April 01, 2020, 05:23:54 PM »
Elfrid Payton has started 331 of 387 career games

25 / 21

That's how many games his teams have won each year.

And he's been on 4 teams in the last 3 years.

If Elf is your starting PG, your team is in trouble.
He's a quality backup.  Who can spot start.

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