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Warriors

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Celtics

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Total Members Voted: 3

Voting closed: June 13, 2022, 11:38:11 PM

[lesterluv]

Chip wtf are you talking about? That storming, sulking piece of lard showed he could give a rats ass about the team or his teammates. Help Obi up? F' that. I'm too busy not playing d, zoning out on the perimeter on any play I'm not the man or flipping off the fans, lol...

[facilitatorn]

If Jules ever gets over the Atlanta series, he will be fine.

It is not a question of whether Jules can play a major and positive role. The questions are can the staff figure out the shape of that role and will he accept and follow the obligations and limitations of such a role if it is presented.

[elephant]

......

Well, RJ is now THE MAN, JB is the rudder and floor general, and JR is the bell cow.  How will they cohere?


***

Hey, we were apparently willing to include RJ, our lead dawg, in a trade,

***

To me he has earned the right to prove his Knickdom, and reboot his game with a young squad an ascendant pup in RJ and....

So like, who is this RJ guy again? Is he THE MAN and the "lead dawg"...

....or is he an "ascendant pup?"

Naw, he can't be both.

Not sure why you keep getting carried away with the dream of RJ, but he has NOT yet shown that he is the MAN. Like I said the other day, that's something not given to you; you gotta earn it.

(If he were already the Knick's "Man," I don't think he would have been pedaled to the Jazz along with bagfuls of treasure for Donovan Mitchell.)

But let's hope we see that shit.

[facilitatorn]

I think there is something to be said for the ensemble approach where there is no clear designated man.

Jules tried and it worked to an extent.

I think if there is someone who I would both predict rises to that role and who I would trust to hold it, he would be Brunson, followed closely by Rose.

Brunson is an unshakable technician and has been rallying squads his whole career.

RJ and Jules need to put themselves in positions do the things they do well. They need to follow the lead of Brunson so we can win effectively and efficiently. Leave the game expansion to the Kids without nine figure contracts.

Fournier is all league anywhere he can hide in a zone. I think he will be a good bench piece.

[carlos123]

......

Well, RJ is now THE MAN, JB is the rudder and floor general, and JR is the bell cow.  How will they cohere?

***

Hey, we were apparently willing to include RJ, our lead dawg, in a trade,

***

To me he has earned the right to prove his Knickdom, and reboot his game with a young squad an ascendant pup in RJ and....

So like, who is this RJ guy again? Is he THE MAN and the "lead dawg"...

....or is he an "ascendant pup?"

Naw, he can't be both.

I think Chip has been reinstated as que King of Positive Pussies.

He is entitled to his Poetic License.

Dont know if he was submitted to the tattoo that you suggested prior to readmission.

[chipstern]

Chip wtf are you talking about? That storming, sulking piece of lard showed he could give a rats ass about the team or his teammates. Help Obi up? F' that. I'm too busy not playing d, zoning out on the perimeter on any play I'm not the man or flipping off the fans, lol...

[Kam]

1. There is no room for his usage or play style
2. The team is better without him
3. The opportunity cost of seeing if he can recap his value isn't worth the risk
4. Things could get ugly if Randle stays
5. We need to see what the kids - especially Obi - can do.

[Kam]

1. There is no room for his usage or play style

Even without Donovan Mitchell, the reality of the sport of basketball - that there's only one ball - remains the most glaring issue on New York's hands.

I've already done deep dives on the usage conundrum for the Knicks, first back in April and then early in July. Without rehashing every detail of those analyses, the major takeaways were as follows:

Absent extenuating circumstances, the player with the third highest usage on an NBA team has a usage rate hovering somewhere between 21 and 23. Julius Randle's usage in New York has never been below 27.

Successful high usage trios have, at the very least, ample shooting, and especially efficient scoring from the big man. Randle's shooting regression needs no further exploration, but beyond that, he has never been a willing screen and roll big, and isn't very efficient when he does.

In games that Randle took a backseat to Kemba Walker last season, he struggled even more than normal, which is saying something. We saw similar results in games RJ took the lead as well.

While both have shown evidence to varying degrees that they can be successful 3-point shooters, both RJ Barrett and Jalen Brunson prefer to operate inside the arc. The Knicks are also set on playing a traditional five. A basketball court is only 50 feet wide.

We've heard a lot about how Julius will thrive playing alongside better talent, like during his year in New Orleans when he played just over 30 minutes a night and sported a usage rate topping 27. However according to Cleaning the Glass, 70 percent of his minutes there came at center, and he played almost exclusively with Anthony Davis or a true stretch big. That is in no way comparable to the case here.

Given all of the above, there is really only one world where it makes sense for Randle to remain on this team and I'm not sure how deep into the multiverse we have to travel before we find it. He'd need to embrace a Draymond Green-ish role, with constant motion and well-timed screening and re-screening. He'd also have to be comfortable spending a high number of possessions camped in the corner, because unlike Draymond, he doesn't have anywhere near the smarts or savvy to play the point forward on every or even most possessions. His version of that - to grind the offense to a halt - is no longer an option with Brunson here and Barrett extended. They must operate with the ball in their hands more than him for a plethora of reasons I don't need to explain here.

Finally: if such a Bizarro-world version of Randle did exist, is that version of Randle worth the $26.5 million in guaranteed annual money he's owed over the next four seasons?

[Kam]

2. The team is better without him

Let's put aside the fact that according to Cleaning the Glass, Obi Toppin had the 20th highest on/off differential among 255 players to see at least 1000 minutes of court time last season, whereas Julius Randle had the 6th lowest among that same group. To some, that stat by itself is enough justification for trying everything possible to move off of Randle and insert Obi Toppin into the starting five.

But on/off differential isn't everything. If it was, Isaiah Hartenstein would have gotten the max instead of a two-year, $15 million deal. What's undeniable, however, is that other than a half-season stretch playing in front of empty gyms, New York's offense has consistently been better with Randle off the floor:

2019-20 season: New York had a higher offensive rating (107.1) with Randle on the floor than off (105.3), but those numbers are a bit deceiving. For one, the Knicks bench was dreadful that season. More importantly, according to Cleaning the Glass, when Julius played without Marcus Morris, the Knicks scored just 105.7 points per 100 possessions, whereas Morris lineups without Randle scored 110.4 per 100. Randle's on-court offensive rating would have ranked in between the 29th ranked Bulls and the 30th ranked Warriors.

2020-21 season: Julius started the season off on the tear of all tears, with a 53.7 effective field goal percentage before the All-Star break, spurred largely by some ridiculous shooting on long twos. They needed every bit of that productivity, as New York scored just 101.9 points per 100 without Randle on the floor. At the same time, the on-court offensive rating of 109.4 with Julius shooting flames out of his butt was still a bottom-ten number. After the break, Randle's eFG% dropped to 49.7. Not coincidentally, the Knicks offensive rating increased from 110.7 when he played - still bottom 10! - to 113.5 when he sat.

2021-22 season: The Knicks offense plummeted to 108.0 points per 100 possessions when Randle was on the court, a number that would have slotted them between the 26th ranked Rockets and the 27th ranked Blazers. With Julius off the court, the number increased to 110.5.

I'm only citing offensive numbers here a) because that is supposed to be his strong suit and b) because anyone with working eyes doesn't need data to support their critique of Randle on the defensive end. When he tries, he is more than passable and occasionally downright effective. When he doesn't, it is a team-wide soul-suck that would make Shang Tsung blush. That brings us to ...

[elephant]

1. There is no room for his usage or play style
2. The team is better without him
3. The opportunity cost of seeing if he can recap his value isn't worth the risk
4. Things could get ugly if Randle stays
5. We need to see what the kids - especially Obi - can do.

All this is familiar stuff.

And pointless. Does anyone really think the Knicks were not trying to trade Julius?

Randle has elite skill and power, but also some weaknesses that we all know. The idea is that Brunson's play can change and elevate Randle's game.

I think that's an intriguing prospect and would like to see it played out.

Edit Note. I wrote this response before I saw your long thoughtful takes.

[Kam]

3. The opportunity cost of seeing if he can recap his value isn't worth the risk

Maybe all the above numbers aren't the be all, end all. Maybe, against all basketball logic and common sense, the stars will align and Randle will find success as one third of triumvirate with RJ and Brunson. Maybe his jumper comes back around. Maybe he took all the barbs and arrows from assholes like me personally, and boy oh boy, is he going to show us.

If all that happens, then what? Would the Knicks:

-be a contender? Hell to the no.

-be closer to contention? Nope, try again!

-be on a path to someday contending with Randle as a core piece? Unless he completely and totally changes what type of player he is, and what he's willing and able to do when he doesn't have the ball, then no.

The Finals between Golden State and Boston were the latest reminder of where basketball is and where it's going. Randle, a player whose most effective half season came by playing a style that doesn't fit with the pace & space of the modern game. That's why, of all the comps we threw around during his All-NBA campaign, we missed the most obvious one: the post-KD but still in his prime version of Russell Westbrook. That version of Russ was perfect if you wanted to win a bunch of regular season games, but was largely neutered in the playoffs. The Hawks really brought this comp home last May.

Finally, if Randle started hot, would the Knicks...

-have an easier time trading him?

This, more than anything, is the reason I've heard argued most for keeping him into the year. I've even argued it myself at times. Theoretically, if he looked good to start the season, his value would go up, and he would be easier to trade.

But how much would his value really go up? Is a team giving up a high ceiling young player to get him? Fat chance. Is a quasi-contender giving up a juicy future unprotected first? Never say never, but I don't see it. More than likely, someone takes a chance on him as a neutral asset, and is willing to give the Knicks their meh contract or contracts to do a swap. And that's the best case scenario.

Is that possibility valuable and/or likely enough to bypass whatever it would take to unload him right now? If we assume New York can unload his money by giving some team one or two of their protected first rounders, would that really be too high a cost? That gets us to...

[Kam]

The idea is that Brunson's play can change and elevate Randle's game.

I think that's an intriguing prospect and would like to see it played out.

See above..  Juice may not be worth the squeeze even if all the IFs work out.

All credit to Jonathan Macri

[Kam]

4. The ugly factor

I give it, oh, I don't know... six minutes and three missed long twos before the boos start reigning down as Randle goes into his jab-jab-fake-jab-dribble-dribble-fake-shoot routine. And with it, the chants of O-Bi Top-pin! will start at the next stoppage in play.

Not in Game 10. Not in Game 5.

Game One.

Well, Game Two, as the Knicks start the season on the road in Memphis. Either way, it won't take long. And if they start losing amidst his struggles, what then? Every team in the league will know that New York's front office is desperate to save itself from the mess they've made, especially after the failed Mitchell pursuit. Firing Thibodeau will get them a temporary reprieve, but that won't last unless his replacement leans into the kids... and thus, further away from Julius. Reducing Randle's minutes at that point would solidify him as the worst contract in basketball, and thus, the toughest to move.

It doesn't have to be this way, of course, which takes us to...

[Kam]

5. We need to see what the kids - especially Obi - can do.

Right now, even after the Mitchell saga, there is a lot to feel good about with this team. Whether the front office is truly behind him or not, every fan is excited for RJ Barrett to solidify himself as the face of the franchise. Brunson is immediately going to be a hit. I am already trying to trademark I ❤️ Hartenstein. And the kids, well... the kids have a slightly higher Q rating than the Beatles walking off Ed Sullivan's stage in 1964.

And Obi Toppin is Paul McCartney.

When I had Zach Lowe on the pod a few months ago, I asked him what his 'biggest thing' was for the Knicks this season (yes, I left it intentionally vague so he could take it any way he wanted to). His answer was that New York needed to see what it had in RJ Barrett and Obi Toppin. As in, we've already seen enough to be very intrigued, but now we have to see more.

I don't know what Obi can do with a starting role. Neither do you. Nobody does. But if there's a player on the Knicks who stands to benefit the most from playing with a guard like Jalen Brunson, it is Toppin. Obi's frenetic energy will finally be rewarded by a guard who has gone from first round afterthought to one hundred million dollar man in large part because he exploits every crevice of weakness a defense gives him. Toppin has been yearning to play with a guard like Brunson. They deserve each other.

[Kam]

And it's not just Obi either. Removing Randle's sky-high usage from the team would likely open additional opportunities for other young players as well. I could even see a world where New York's starters - gasp - play with elevated pace, thus reducing the starters' minutes and giving more time to someone like Immanuel Quickley.

(And yes, to everyone who says they need to move Rose just as urgently so IQ will get more minutes on the ball, you are 1000% right. But that doesn't need to be done now. Rose is the anti-Randle in just about every way, from off-court leader to someone who doesn't need the ball to be effective when he plays. Keeping him for 30 or 40 games with built in rest on back-to-backs is not the end of the world. Some contender will come calling before the deadline with a first rounder, presuming Rose stays healthy. And if he doesn't stay healthy, a) it's not like his value will have gone down that much, because I don't see anyone offering a first for him right now, and b) IQ will have gotten to play a lot anyway. Still, should Rose ideally be elsewhere? Yes.)

The best part: if they move Randle, the fan base will grant the team bucketfulls of goodwill. If the kids are playing major minutes and wins are hard to come by, it will be seen as a worthwhile trade-off, at least for this season. It will also be viewed as an olive branch if the team is unable to move Fournier and/or Rose at the moment: Don't worry, we know what you want, and we want it to. We're going to get all the way there, we just need some more time. Derrick Rose and Evan Fournier will only help make life easier for everyone they play with, and their respective values should only go up as time passes. That is simply not the case with Julius.

Right now, I believe there is a morbid curiosity about Randle throughout the league. No one wants him, but his All-NBA season is still fresh enough that someone should be amenable to taking a flier, especially if a pick comes with him. If the season starts and he again stinks up the joint? I'm not so sure that would still be the case, and is there any worse world to imagine than one in which the Knicks are stuck with Julius Randle, to the point that no reasonable amount of sweeteners would entice a team to take him on? I'm not sure I can imagine one.

The time is now. This isn't a luxury; it is a necessity. There can be no progress without first taking this unfortunate step backwards. It's OK ... it happens. Again: we'll understand.