80% of his former self, when?
Y1 he rehabs - age 31 season.
Y2 he probably comes back a bit tentatively (think Hayward, Boogie, PG13) - age 32
Y3 KD might return to being 80% of KD, while aging out of his prime - age 33 season
Y4 KD is aging and has had injuries - age 34
Y5 KD is kinda old - age 35
So let me guess:
Y1 age 31 KD = 0%
Y2 age 32 KD = 40% 1st half of season / 60% 2nd half
Y3 age 33 KD = 75% (if he stays healthy)
-- This year represents his best shot at returning to form --
Y4 age 34 KD = 60%
Y5 age 35 KD = Melo
If you think that's uncharitable, you can tack on an extra 5% each year if you're an optimist.
So:
Y1 is useless; Y5 likely fading significantly
Y2 likely a slow return plus half a good year.
So if you're lucky you might get 2 1/2 good years out of an aging, damaged KD. At the low, low price of $40M or whatever.
Sure hope the Knix are 4th out of 4 on his list.
Can anyone see Kawhi coming to NYK to play with our sketchy yute for a year, while waiting for KD to rehab? Would he really waste a year (or two) of his career, just to play in NY with Durant.