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Warriors

1 (33.3%)

Celtics

2 (66.7%)

Total Members Voted: 3

Voting closed: June 13, 2022, 11:38:11 PM

[kiidcarter8]

Gonna guess that Mudiay and Gobert have traveled to France recently - or some in their respective posses/families have.

Have to wonder, have concern now about FRANK.

[bodiddley]

probably knocks a team back a slot. Which has cost us some good players in the past (ie Scurry). 
NYK with a 50.4% chance of picking 7th or 8th.  54.2% chance of picking 7th or lower.

The win probably does NOT knock the team back a slot in the top 5.

THE WIN HAS ABSOLUTELY MINIMAL EFFECT ON OUR CHANCE OF LANDING A TOP FIVE PICK
Do we need a crash course on "probably/probable"?

A minimal effect on the lottery odds  -- a 4.9% worse chance of landing a Top 4 pick.  Btw, Knix can't be 5th.  Though I'd still rather a 42.1% chance than a 37.2% chance  (and if you go Top 5, DET bounces up to 44.3).  But that's not what is probable, is it?

The Knix have a 54.2% chance of picking 7-9.  That's what is probable and where we get likely get bumped back a slot.  If our 37.2% chance doesn't hit, than we are slotted behind one more team (that finished with a worse record than us).  Our probable is 7th or 8th; DET's probable is 6th or 7th.
A one slot difference mathboy.

The real risk is that one or more of CHI, CHA and WSH with their roughly 30%/25%/20% respectively -- or another team with lower odds -- get a lotto hit and bump us back if we miss on our 37% chance.

[lesterluv]

A minimal effect on the lottery odds 

OK, now you're showing you understand the math. Some other folks clearly don't.

We disagree strongly on the value or detrimental effect of intentionally losing games to increase your shot of 6th over 7th or 7th over 8th. OK.

[bodiddley]

I'd also rec keeping tissues in your coat or pants pocket so when you need to rub your nose you do it with a tissue instead of your hand.

Stores, malls, office buildings, restaurants, etc. should have digital thermometers and scan people's temps (wrist or forehead work) before admitting people.  Takes a second. 

I'd rec getting a jump rope for some exercise when all gyms are closed.

Free advice.  I'm months ahead of you.  This is where things are likely headed.

China officially reported just 24 new cases (5 of them imported-- 4 from Italy and one from the US, I think) yesterday.  Achieved using quarantines, isolation wards, face masks in public, temp screenings and masks to enter anywhere, spacing out people in restaurants as much as possible (when eating people wont be wearing masks much at all), work at home, limiting entrance to living and work areas and recording names of admitted people, and early on extending the national holiday an extra week or more.

Some cities and one whole province faced a mandatory lockdown.   Hangzhou south of Shanghai was only allowing one person per family to go out once a day to get food/medicine.

Some serious measures, but they've gotten things under control (for now).
The main issue for China now is Hubei province where the infection started and spread before effective action was taken, and had almost 70K cases, with nearly 60K of those recovered.  (50K of those cases were in Wuhan).

[bodiddley]

It's easy to find examples where the Knix either got screwed by one slot or lucky.

2009
#7 Scurry MVP x 2
#8 Jordan Hill of Beans

2011
#14 Marcus Morris
#15 Kawhi
#16 Vucevic
#17 Shumpy wumpy

2015
#4 KZ
#5 Hezonja
#6 Willy Curdled Stein
#7 Mudman
#8 Stan Johnson
#9 Frank the Tank

That's 3 out of our 4 1st round picks in a 7 year stretch where one slot made or would have made a huge difference.  Three of those years the Knix didn't have a 1st round pick as we used to trade those for Marberries and Bargnanis. 

Not that we necessarily would have taken the guys directly drafted ahead  the guy we actually picked, but it's usually a good indication of the consensus draft board.

More recently, in the case of Knox and Franc, we had some good choices and just blew the pick. Though I'd take Sexton and Markaanen, the guys selected just ahead of Knox and Franc respectively.

[kiidcarter8]

Wow - Mr Young had quite the quarter (I razzed Chip just as i had finished watching the third - heh)


What a finish for CARTER.  All class.

[kiidcarter8]

I'd also rec keeping tissues in your coat or pants pocket so when you need to rub your nose you do it with a tissue instead of your hand.

Stores, malls, office buildings, restaurants, etc. should have digital thermometers and scan people's temps (wrist or forehead work) before admitting people.  Takes a second. 

I'd rec getting a jump rope for some exercise when all gyms are closed.

Free advice.  I'm months ahead of you.  This is where things are likely headed.

China officially reported just 24 new cases (5 of them imported-- 4 from Italy and one from the US, I think) yesterday.  Achieved using quarantines, isolation wards, face masks in public, temp screenings and masks to enter anywhere, spacing out people in restaurants as much as possible (when eating people wont be wearing masks much at all), work at home, limiting entrance to living and work areas and recording names of admitted people, and early on extending the national holiday an extra week or more.

Some cities and one whole province faced a mandatory lockdown.   Hangzhou south of Shanghai was only allowing one person per family to go out once a day to get food/medicine.

Some serious measures, but they've gotten things under control (for now).
The main issue for China now is Hubei province where the infection started and spread before effective action was taken, and had almost 70K cases, with nearly 60K of those recovered.  (50K of those cases were in Wuhan).

China's FEWER new cases are because most of the infected are no longer contagious. You realize this, right?

[kiidcarter8]

Sure one slot (the price of winning v. ATL) isn't a big deal, but probably knocks a team back a slot. Which has cost us some good players in the past (ie Scurry).  I was advocating tanking and trying to get the 3rd worst record.  That'd have a 67% chance of Top 5.

NYK with a 50.4% chance of picking 7th or 8th.  54.2% chance of picking 7th or lower.  Not bad, but this was a misery year.  And a weak draft.  Fizz would have led us to a higher pick ...

LOL, really the last word on this. The win probably does NOT knock the team back a slot in the top 5.

THE WIN HAS ABSOLUTELY MINIMAL EFFECT ON OUR CHANCE OF LANDING A TOP FIVE PICK

*** which is actually reasonable, significantly better shot at moving up to the good stuff than in the old days, thanks Adam Silver, we did try, and as per your guidance, we have a shot at being rewarded for that effort, fuck thee who play to lose

Maybe it's English, not math, you m'fer's don't understand. Do we need a crash course on "probably/probable"?

LMAO

The dream of LaMelo has died.     Sad.



(unless Leon can orchestrate something)

[lesterluv]

The dream of LaMelo has died.     Sad.



(unless Leon can orchestrate something)

Not in the least. That's what I'm saying. The dream is pretty much EXACTLY what it has been throughout the season.

Assuming he's #1, 5% diff from the depth of the depth of Fukwhale's stinky stew..

*** and I give up.

** really

****** really, really, really, really, really

[bodiddley]

Mostly because measures are in place to prevent the spread.
Isolation, quarantines, lockdowns and public health precautions.

There could have been an Italy/Iran outbreak in any province in China.  There wasn't.  Because China mobilized.  Rapidly ramping up its health care capacity and taking extreme precautions.  A nearby hospital in Shanghai where I have a number of doctor friends sent 350 medical workers to Wuhan to help deal with the epidemic.  Due to the need for isolation of those infected, it turned out nurses, test kits and protective gear were needed more than doctors.

Btw, most provinces in China are of the size and population of a large Euro country (France/Germany/UK).
And there have been cases of people either getting reinfected or dismissed before they were cured and later testing positive.

[bodiddley]

Yup, it was always very unlikely, unless we actively tanked.  Just like Zion was extremely unlikely last year, yet many Knick fans thought otherwise.

[kiidcarter8]

The dream of LaMelo has died.     Sad.



(unless Leon can orchestrate something)

Not in the least. That's what I'm saying. The dream is pretty much EXACTLY what it has been throughout the season.

Assuming he's #1, 5% diff from the depth of the depth of Fukwhale's stew..

*** and I give up.

** really

****** really, really, really, really, really

What WERE the odds of Knicks selecting top 3 when we were 3rd


vs where we are now (is it seventh)?


Easy to see us finagling something for LaMelo either by directly picking him or dealing up - if we landed top 3.

[kiidcarter8]

By the way -

Monica McNutt - who knew?


Played at Georgetown about 8-10 years back -

excellent addition to MSG.

[bodiddley]

ATL started the year 6-19 while Collins was suspended.
Then struggled to 8-32 while Collins got back in shape/rhythm.
Cam Reddish was a huge disaster during the first 2 months as well.

Since Jan 15, Hawks have gone 12-15.
And this is without Capela.
Collins has got back to his old ways.
Reddish has gotten much better.

If the season is kaput, it robs ATl of 15 more games of useful experience for their yute.  4 of their 5 starters are 21, 21, 22, 22.
Capela will make a difference.  Add in a Top 7 pick.
Secure another defender for the bench.
They should be a playoff team next year.
Though the Nets should be if Kyrie and KD shed their gimpiness.
So ATL will fight with ORL and CHA for 8th seed.

ATL is a team on the rise.
Will take youth a few years, but good things in store.
And they will pay and retain Collins.

ATL beat LAC, IND, DEN, MIA & DAL. 
Also took IND to OT and lost by one.  Lost to MIA in OT.
Dropped 152 on WAS.

Their main issue was D, and Capela will help with that.

[kiidcarter8]

We shall see

I did have the OVER for Hawks this year ( a losing prop after the Collins news)

Another team that will be looking for a coach as well (NETS threw us a major curveball by jettisoning Atkinson).  The best available will have choices between Knicks and other locales.