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Warriors

1 (33.3%)

Celtics

2 (66.7%)

Total Members Voted: 3

Voting closed: June 13, 2022, 11:38:11 PM

[kiidcarter8]

Shroder got better - and was no longer a starter.

You are right - it can be team dependent.

Calling Elfrid a bench guy just didnt make any sense though.

[kiidcarter8]

Payton's assists per 36 minutes were a career high, turnovers a career low.

His FT% was baffling - but a solid season.

I do think when you think a  guy's salary will be decreasing the current team is usually at a disadvantage (EX:  Mudiay would not have signed for what he did with Jazz - if in NY)

Is someone going 3-25 or more on Elf?  I dont know.  I pretty much know we arent.  Thius my scenario plays out.

[facilitatorn]

We should pick up his option. He’ll be a real good caddy for Frank and second unit conductor next year.

[bodiddley]

You can get by with a guy like Elf as your starting PG.  IND did with Collison; ORL with DJ Augustin.  Though both of those guys became strong 3 point shooters.

If Elf (or Franc) is running your team, you definitely need shooters.
After we traded MaMo, we had no one who shot better than league average.
Portis or Dot were our best 3-point shooters.

Elf + inside Bigs + callow Yute = a bad team

I'm fine with bringing back Elf.  Knix certainly can use more continuity.  But he doesn't project as a long term starter.  Not on a good team.

[Kam]

Sounds like we agree

Don't confuse CONSIDERING trading down with definitely doing so.  It will always be offer and board dependent.

That said - no way is Haliburton a 7.

Shai Gilgous Alexander wasn't considered a top 10 pick either.

[Kam]

I've assumed all along the season is done.

Some talk about having playoffs in Las Vegas without fans.  This is basically the model that the China CBA came up with, but has already delayed the start.

Everything lines up for the pre-season tournament Silver wants.  Just start the 2019-2020 playoffs 8 weeks before the 2020-2021 season.   Maybe shorten next season a little bit to spread the load out.

[bodiddley]

That said - no way is Haliburton a 7.

Shai Gilgous Alexander wasn't considered a top 10 pick either.

SGA was definitely moving up the draft boards based on his workouts.  He had enough buzz the last two weeks prior to the draft that he was moving into our range (#9).  Shai beat out one Bridges to be the #11 pick.  And obviously Shai would have been a better pick than Knox (#9).  So I agree with Kam, you tab the guy you want and don't worry much if the consensus has him lower down.  The consensus would always be substantially reshuffled on redraft two or three years out.

I never know how to feel about those late risers.  It's mostly based on individual workouts, maybe some 3-on-3 runs.  Some guys are great workout guys, that doesn't translate to game skills.  Some guys have game savvy and don't look as good in workouts.  Some guys have just prepped better, practiced standard drills, and are in better condition, but not necessarily great players.
It's tricky.  But often late risers do well.

Ty H could be a bargain since injury hurt his stock.  And teams want to investigate that funky shot release.
Workouts will be very important, since so many of this year's top prospects played limited college hoops or played overseas.

[bodiddley]

Watched some Cole Anthony highlights.  He sure killed Notre Dame.
I'm not comfortable evaluating these short long-range chuckers.  I don't think some of his fakes and drives would work in the NBA.  But of course he'll grow and adapt.  I'd have to see CA in high school and check his progress in college. 

Overall, I wasn't too impressed, but he only played part of his freshman year, and I don't watch college ball so don't know the level and such.  And that type of player isn't my fave, though in the wake of Steph and Trae is becoming more prevalent.  (Coby White, Sexton, etc).

Would have been real useful to see him develop over the course of a full college season.  He had meniscus surgery.  Not sure how much of a concern that is going forward.  If any.    Not what I'd be looking to add to these Knix -- a Coby White/Sexton -- but I do have a bias against jack-it-up, head-down PG's.  And really would need to see more to project better. Probably watching a few whole games would help, but I'm not that invested.

I'm not a draftnik.

[bodiddley]

One game I like to play is identifying the future busts who are projected to go Top 10.  Because every year there are 2 or 3 busts in the Top 10.  So you should be able to spot them beforehand. 

For that 2018 draft, I had MoBomb pegged as the easy mark.
Sexton a potential bust.
And Knox was seen as high risk/high reward.  Too young to have a game yet, but good physical tools.   So far La Bamba and Knox are the weak links.

Otherwise a pretty strong top of the draft, with the Top 5 all looking pretty good.  All averaging 15 ppg or more. 2 all-stars (Luka & Trae)

[bodiddley]

2019, I didn't look too far, since the Knix had the 3rd pick.

RJB was the consensus, though Hunter and Culver sounded like good 3&D prospects.
RJB turned out to have the shooting and defensive shortcomings that were noted pre-draft.

No one else really seemed a threat to go 3rd, so I didn't check up on the others and who might be a bust.

[kiidcarter8]

I'm fine with bringing back Elf.  Knix certainly can use more continuity.  But he doesn't project as a long term starter.  Not on a good team.


I predicted this shift from you with 97% certainty   -   heh

[kiidcarter8]

For that 2018 draft, I had MoBomb pegged as the easy mark.
Sexton a potential bust.
And Knox was seen as high risk/high reward.  Too young to have a game yet, but good physical tools.   So far La Bamba and Knox are the weak links


I dont recall any negativity here re:  Knox.


I like Mo Bamba.  Playing behind a pretty good talent right now in Vucevic.  Will he need another locale to blossom?  We'll see.

[kiidcarter8]

OK, lets have some fun with analytics

From that 2018 Knox draft

Give me the top ten in WIN SHARES per 48 minutes, career

Then give me a bottom ten using just first rounders.


I will start you off

BEST is in fact our Mitchell Robinson    .230
WORST is Jacob Evans of the Warriors/moved to Wolves      -.047


Other first rounders were:

Ayton, Bagley, Doncic, Jar Jackson, T Young, Bamba, W Carter, Secton, Knox, Bridges (PHX), Shae Gilg, Bridges (CHA), J Robinson, Porter, T Brown, Z Smith, DiVincenzo, L Walker, Huerter, Okoge, G Allen, Hutchison, A Holiday, Simons, Wagner, Shamet, R Williams, Evans, Musa, Spellman.

[kiidcarter8]

re:  draft

"Teams put players in tiers or buckets at the start of the process," an Eastern Conference executive says. "The tiers aren't going to change. How players usually move up—the interviews, the one-on-one time with the GM, the private workouts—that's gone."

It's not as if the top-rated talent—prospects such as Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball and James Wiseman—won't still be among the first half-dozen players taken, but the exact order at the top, along with decisions made throughout the draft, could be based more on actual performance than perceived potential this year.

"This is a basketball person's draft, based on actual basketball play," the front-office executive says. "The high-ranking decision-makers who have been working all year aren't going to miss a beat. It's going to expose the GMs who were flying around with their teams staying in Four Seasons rather than going [to scout] in Dayton, Ohio, and staying at the Courtyard Marriott. If there are no more data points coming in, they're screwed."





https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2883250-the-2020-draft-has-nba-guessing

[bodiddley]

I dont recall any negativity here re:  Knox.

I was a bit surprised the Knix went for the young unformed potential of Knox.
I thought they'd play it safer with one of the Bridges.  I kind of liked the Knox gamble.  Hoped they knew what they were doing.