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Warriors

1 (33.3%)

Celtics

2 (66.7%)

Total Members Voted: 3

Voting closed: June 13, 2022, 11:38:11 PM

[thebizneverloses]

If we offer DeAndre the mid-level ($9 mil) will he take it?

I think we keep one of DeAndre or Noah.

We won't have the MLE as we'll be under the cap, but we will have the room and BAE.

For the sake of argument, say the Knicks, sign Durant and Kyrie. There will be something like $5-6m or so in cap space, depending on where we draft and presuming we waive all of IsoZo, Ellenson and Jenkins. If we can move Lance Thomas we can create an extra million in space. Additionally, there will be the room exception ($4.5 m) and the biannual exception (a bit over $3m).

If the Knicks trade for Davis after having signed KD and Kyrie, everyone on the roster including the 2019 draft pick but not Durant and Kyrie has to go; I suppose KD and Kyrie could take tiny discounts to allow Mitch and Dotson to stay or slightly bigger ones to allow one of DSJ, Knox or Ntilikina to stay. If the Knicks want to, say, trade for Beal, they have the flexibility to keep all the young guys save for two of Knox/Ntilikina/DSJ/draft pick.

IsoZo, Ellenson and Jenkins need to be either traded by 29 June, or waived, or we're not expecting to use all of our cap space and they will be retained. I'm guessing the Knicks will roll the dice. They can always be brought back once free agency shakes out.

Two guys to whom I wouldn't get too attached: Mudiay and DSJ. If the Knicks sign either Kemba or Kyrie, they're both gone for fit reasons. If the Knicks trade for Davis, they're both gone for cap reasons. If the Knicks sign KD and some all star who isn't a point guard, likely one stays while the Knicks pursue a Pat Beverley type for the other lead guard position and either trade DSJ or let Mudiay walk. If the Knicks completely strike out in free agency, I can see both coming back, but only on deal for Mudiay that is closer to the room exception than the MLE in terms of value. Similarly, there aren't too many scenarios where Vonleh (or Hezonja, for that matter) come back next year.

The one guy you can feel free to love: Mitch Robinson. He's cheap, he doesn't need the ball, he plays a game that's friendly next to superstars. Of all the Knicks yutes, he's the most likely to be on the team in 12 months. Caveat: the Pels will fight hard to get the New Orleans native included in any Davis deal.

[thebizneverloses]

I will add -----

if we have to deal 2-3 of the 7 picks to get someone we really desire - fine - as long as it is not next year's #1 and any pick has proper (top 10ish) protection.

That might get you Beal, but if you're acquiring Davis and pairing him with Durant and/or Kyrie, I'm not too worried about protection next year.

If the Knicks win the lottery though, will we have to give up a lot of picks? Zion + DSJ with just one first rounder is still better than the Lakers offer, and if the Celtics don't include Tatum it beats whatever the Celtics can conjure.

[thebizneverloses]

If we offer DeAndre the mid-level ($9 mil) will he take it?

I think we keep one of DeAndre or Noah.

We won't have the MLE as we'll be under the cap, but we will have the room and BAE.

For the sake of argument, say the Knicks, sign Durant and Kyrie. There will be something like $5-6m or so in cap space, depending on where we draft and presuming we waive all of IsoZo, Ellenson and Jenkins. If we can move Lance Thomas we can create an extra million in space. Additionally, there will be the room exception ($4.5 m) and the biannual exception (a bit over $3m).

If the Knicks trade for Davis after having signed KD and Kyrie, everyone on the roster including the 2019 draft pick but not Durant and Kyrie has to go; I suppose KD and Kyrie could take tiny discounts to allow Mitch and Dotson to stay or slightly bigger ones to allow one of DSJ, Knox or Ntilikina to stay. If the Knicks want to, say, trade for Beal, they have the flexibility to keep all the young guys save for two of Knox/Ntilikina/DSJ/draft pick.

Extending the Davis/Durant/Kyrie fantasy: I think it's reasonable to expect a tiny discount to at least keep Mitch. Perhaps Dot as well. That would mean you have those five players on your roster and nobody else, and then $4.5m and $3.5m exceptions to fill out the roster before asking players to take vet minimums. A lot of good vets are going to consider those exceptions, especially given the playing time and exposure. The types of players I see in play are Taj Gibson, Jeremy Lin, Cory Joseph, Iman Shumpert, Mike Muscala....DeAndre Jordan and Noah Vonleh would be nice but they might be just too pricey. Emmanual Mudiay wouldn't be the best fit, as much as a back-up PG would be a priority given Kyrie's injury history.

There's a clear championship contender in there, by the way, but this is of course presuming a lottery win, a few landmark defections in free agency, and a couple different players agreeing to leave varying degrees of money on the table to play at MSG.

[facilitatorn]

If we give Lance his guaranteed million to go away and renounce Mudiay, we can QO Kornet and pick up all the options on Jenkins, Ellison, and Trier and still be under 33 million committed. We’ll have about 75 mil in cap space that way, 10 mil less if we get Zion though the odds are better it will be in the 7-5 mil range + 1.5 for the second rounder. Kornet and Trier give or take Jenkins lets you absorb the pick and keep the 75. They might have to go depending on the pick. I’d like to keep Trier and Ellison.

Mitch
Ellison
Knox
Dotson Trier
DJS Frank

Adding Zion to that group would be nice, but I’m warming up to DeAndre Hunter at UVA, especially if picking him means taking him at a spot where his salary lets us keep Zo.

[thebizneverloses]

If we give Lance his guaranteed million to go away and renounce Mudiay, we can QO Kornet and pick up all the options on Jenkins, Ellison, and Trier and still be under 33 million committed. We’ll have about 75 mil in cap space that way, 10 mil less if we get Zion though the odds are better it will be in the 7-5 mil range + 1.5 for the second rounder. Kornet and Trier give or take Jenkins lets you absorb the pick and keep the 75. They might have to go depending on the pick. I’d like to keep Trier and Ellison.

Mitch
Ellison
Knox
Dotson Trier
DJS Frank

Adding Zion to that group would be nice, but I’m warming up to DeAndre Hunter at UVA, especially if picking him means taking him at a spot where his salary lets us keep Zo.

Cost in millions:


Frank 4.9
DSJ 4.5
Knox 4.4
IsoZo 3.5 (my error, this is the biannual exception, which means we don't have it for anyone else)
Ellenson 1.7 (guaranteed on 29 June)
Dot 1.6 (guaranteed on 15 July)
Mitch 1.6
Jenkins 1.7

Rookie contract: 6.8/6.1/5.5/4.9/4.5/4.0 (depending on where we draft...so Zion costs 6.8, RJ 6.1, etc)
Noah 6.4 dead cap
Lance 1.0 guaranteed (7.6 otherwise)

Kornet cap hold = 2.1
Mudiay cap hold = 12.9
Second rounder cap hold = 0
Roster charges = 900k per spot

Max spot for 10 yr vets (eg Durant) 38.2 (presuming 109m cap)
Max spot for 7-9 yr vets (eg Kyrie, Kemba) 32.7


So, in your scenario (note we don't pay for the second rounder until after our cap space is used), assuming we pick second overall, we actually have ~67.8 million left over by my math, once you factor in all the various forms of dead money. Maybe you get Durant/KD with that, but that means they're leaving three million on the table. Casting aside Jenkins and Ellenson saves, total, 1.5 million (because we'd still have to pay for their roster spots), and trading Lance saves us a million (which should be doable if we simply pay the cash to do it).

But that doesn't leave any money for DeAndre or Vonleh or anyone else, unless one of them is coming for the room exception. And it means Mudiay is gone.

[kiidcarter8]

Knicks would TRADE Dennis Smith, not just let him go - and Kyrie or Kemba coming - or a deal for Conley are the only scenarios I see this would happen.

Have to have something to show for KP in terms of talent (not just relief and picks)

My guess is he stays next year as starter or second unit PG.  If we strike out on a lot of guys, Mudiay has a chance to return as a combo guard.

[Kam]

Bottom line:  Knick FO had to know that the Knick fans reaction to the trade would be massively unfavorable. 

So you only do such a thing if you:

A) Are crazy/hate NYC/are ready to get fired
B) Know something

Game theory suggests that the Knicks know something

C) The hubris to believe these moves will lead to success without any assurance

There are no assurances in any path.  You take the path that has the brightest outlook.

What assurance did we have that a supposedly less than thrilled KP and $27mil in cap would lead us past Philly Toronto Boston Milwaukee Indiana

That spells out a middling team to me unless we struck GOLD with the draft picks.

Two max guys... or the right max guy and a trio of very good players AND two more picks....that's an opportunity to raise the ceiling on this teams' potential.

They were MORE sure of this path leading to greater opportunity than hitching the wagon to the Unicorn with a Broken leg.

Best laid plans and all.

[Kam]

Ellison is getting a Jenkins style contract. We should still have him next year.

Smart moves.  Rather than pickup some minimum contract vets in the summer, you build some continuity from this roster to the next. Trier Jenkins and Ellenson get an extended look.  But we will have decisions to make come next year.

[kiidcarter8]

Bottom line:  Knick FO had to know that the Knick fans reaction to the trade would be massively unfavorable. 

So you only do such a thing if you:

A) Are crazy/hate NYC/are ready to get fired
B) Know something

Game theory suggests that the Knicks know something

C) The hubris to believe these moves will lead to success without any assurance

There are no assurances in any path.  You take the path that has the brightest outlook.

What assurance did we have that a supposedly less than thrilled KP and $27mil in cap would lead us past Philly Toronto Boston Milwaukee Indiana

That spells out a middling team to me unless we struck GOLD with the draft picks.

Two max guys... or the right max guy and a trio of very good players AND two more picks....that's an opportunity to raise the ceiling on this teams' potential.

They were MORE sure of this path leading to greater opportunity than hitching the wagon to the Unicorn with a Broken leg.

Best laid plans and all.

I think KP and Mitch would have been nice together defensively.  KP, Mudiay and Tim effective at the other end.

[Kam]

There's a clear championship contender in there, by the way, but this is of course presuming a lottery win, a few landmark defections in free agency, and a couple different players agreeing to leave varying degrees of money on the table to play at MSG.

The fact that you can say that there is a clear path to a championship NOW ....  that was the point of the KP trade.

There was no clear path before unless injured unhappy KP became the best player in the League AND we got value from the $27 mil AND landed a Zion.

[Kam]

Bottom line:  Knick FO had to know that the Knick fans reaction to the trade would be massively unfavorable. 

So you only do such a thing if you:

A) Are crazy/hate NYC/are ready to get fired
B) Know something

Game theory suggests that the Knicks know something

C) The hubris to believe these moves will lead to success without any assurance

There are no assurances in any path.  You take the path that has the brightest outlook.

What assurance did we have that a supposedly less than thrilled KP and $27mil in cap would lead us past Philly Toronto Boston Milwaukee Indiana

That spells out a middling team to me unless we struck GOLD with the draft picks.

Two max guys... or the right max guy and a trio of very good players AND two more picks....that's an opportunity to raise the ceiling on this teams' potential.

They were MORE sure of this path leading to greater opportunity than hitching the wagon to the Unicorn with a Broken leg.

Best laid plans and all.

I think KP and Mitch would have been nice together defensively.  KP, Mudiay and Tim effective at the other end.

Sure. I'd go along with that.  But does "nice defensively" and "effective offensively" get you to a Finals? Let alone winning one?

The beauty of the Durant plan is it hurts the team we would meet in the Finals.

And if that secondary player is a Kawhi or a Butler you hurt a team in your way to the finals.

[kiidcarter8]

Never know who GS adds should they lose KD and Klay

[Kam]

The one guy you can feel free to love: Mitch Robinson. He's cheap, he doesn't need the ball, he plays a game that's friendly next to superstars. Of all the Knicks yutes, he's the most likely to be on the team in 12 months. Caveat: the Pels will fight hard to get the New Orleans native included in any Davis deal.

One for One!   Straight up.

[Kam]

The one guy you can feel free to love: Mitch Robinson. He's cheap, he doesn't need the ball, he plays a game that's friendly next to superstars. Of all the Knicks yutes, he's the most likely to be on the team in 12 months. Caveat: the Pels will fight hard to get the New Orleans native included in any Davis deal.

One for One!   Straight up.

Don't wanna hear Les say we gave up EIGHT starters, lol, for AD.

[Kam]

Never know who GS adds should they lose KD and Klay

Trade for Love?