Their best bet:
1. Atlanta Hawks — UNDER 35.5
I fully expected to be in on the Hawks this season. Trae Young was an All-NBA caliber player already last year, but the rest of Atlanta’s roster was a disaster. They had no backup point guard, no center, no defense, and no real talent other than half a season of John Collins. This year they’ll get more Collins and then add Clint Capela, Danilo Gallinari, and Bogdan Bogdanovic to the mix.
Even if you don’t think those guys are great, it’s a huge upgrade to turn over that many replacement-level minutes to rotation guys. The problem is we’re also overlooking just how terrible Atlanta was and how far they have to come. The defense is still terrible, and the Hawks played at a 24-win pace last year. This line means .500 ball, and that’s just a bridge too far for a young team we know little about.
I’m not even sure the Hawks are good enough to make the play-in games, and I don’t see them winning if they do get there. I’ve got Atlanta as my East 12-seed, ahead of only the Hornets, Knicks, and Cavs — and that’s after factoring in a significant 10-win improvement.
Sorry, Atlanta fans. Winning is hard
A very well-written piece.