Below is my post from Feb 14.
The current projection still has us crossing 600,000 dead just before June 1, which seems right given the current decline in deaths we've seen, even in the last week, though it has slowed down. The increased cases plus the seeming greater mortality from one of the new variants gives me pause, but I doubt that we will see a significant bump in deaths (though still significant to those who die and those who have to deal with the deaths). Very unlikely that we would pass that number by May 1.
It remains a relief to see how steeply deaths have fallen, with our having been under 1,000 per day on average for weeks, now. That's still
way to many, yet so much better than it was.
Good news, then sobering news:
The number of daily new cases and daily deaths continue to drop. We're seeing the drop globally, too. Deaths are now back to pre-Christmas levels. And we've had new cases down below 100,000 on a couple occasions.
OTOH, on Monday or early Tuesday we will pass 500,000 dead from COVID-19, at a minimum (despite what liars like Ward say). And even with the reduced rate of deaths and assuming no uptick, we expect another 100,000 dead by June 1. (If it takes that long, I will consider us fortunate. I think we are more likely to cross the 600,000 level more than a month before that - but it beats our getting there by April 1, which was the trajectory we had been on!
I am very glad that the dip projected by folks like IHME, delayed though it was, has come to pass and that I was wrong about its happening at all if right that it wasn't in the cards at that time. May I be wrong on the continued rate, as well.