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Total Members Voted: 3

Voting closed: February 13, 2022, 10:41:25 PM

[kidcarter8]

So...

are White Sox too young to give Astros a go?

Is it all on the pitching - LYNN wearing the goat horns Game 1?

I figured this for 5 - but the way McCullers threw the ball looks almost like CHI had better win three straight now

If they win the next game, it's back to Chi-town tied. Which is usually the goal.

Goals count more than goats after GAME ONE.

Right

At which point they would then have to win the next 2 - given how McCullers looked.  What I said

Not that Lance is '86 Mike Scott - but quite impressive, yes. 

[bankshot1]

We do assume that they would have had two shots at getting him in from third rather than one shot at getting Stanton in from 2nd.


Right

But assuming a high success rate is the folly.

Stat guys (FanGraph) have a matrix with 24 outcomes (0,1,2 outs, different bases occupied) and have estimated 1st and 3rd 1 out has a run expectancy of 1.14 runs.

Nevin owns this folly.

[Hamilton Samuels]

So...

are White Sox too young to give Astros a go?

Is it all on the pitching - LYNN wearing the goat horns Game 1?

I figured this for 5 - but the way McCullers threw the ball looks almost like CHI had better win three straight now

If they win the next game, it's back to Chi-town tied. Which is usually the goal.

Goals count more than goats after GAME ONE.

Right

At which point they would then have to win the next 2 - given how McCullers looked.  What I said

Not that Lance is '86 Mike Scott - but quite impressive, yes.

That's not how it works. You plan for all the games, but you only play one game at a time. Adjustments get made constantly, depending on who is hitting, what pitches are being mastered, and a whole host of other factors.

It's not the NBA, where most outcomes are easy to predict. Ask Aura and Mystique, back in 2001. Turned out they were just strippers.

0-1 count, man on, 0 outs, Rivera pitching, up by a run.What happened? The bunt was put down, and Rivera had it in plenty of time to go to second, but he let one sail past Jeter that he couldn't knock down and went into center, making it 2 on and 0 outs. On the next bunt, Rivera was quick to get the ball to Brosius at third, and he STILL had time to get a DP at first, but he never threw the ball. So, instead of 2 out and a man on 2nd, it was 1 out and first and second. The greatest closer of all time then gave up a 2-2  double to Tony Womack, game was then tied, and still only one out. Craig Counsell, came up, and both infield and outfield now playing in. And the GOAT Closer hit Counsell. Which brought Luis Gonzales up who then hits the flare just over the head of the drawn-in Jeter at short. If you recall AZ won the first two games of that 7 game series, LOST the next 3, and won that one in the ninth.


That GOAT was THE goat, that night.

Let the games unfold, kid.

[kidcarter8]

McCullers for the year

185 K
122 hits allowed

McCullers career

750 K
566 hits allowed

Select stats indicator of dominance

[kidcarter8]

0-1 count, man on, 0 outs, Rivera pitching, up by a run.What happened? The bunt was put down, and Rivera had it in plenty of time to go to second, but he let one sail past Jeter that he couldn't knock down and went into center, making it 2 on and 0 outs. On the next bunt, Rivera was quick to get the ball to Brosius at third, and he STILL had time to get a DP at first, but he never threw the ball. So, instead of 2 out and a man on 2nd, it was 1 out and first and second. The greatest closer of all time then gave up a 2-2  double to Tony Womack, game was then tied, and still only one out. Craig Counsell, came up, and both infield and outfield now playing in. And the GOAT Closer hit Counsell. Which brought Luis Gonzales up who then hits the flare just over the head of the drawn-in Jeter at short. If you recall AZ won the first two games of that 7 game series, LOST the next 3, and won that one in the ninth.


Have you ever heard Jeter talk about that bunt play?  I'd love his take on it.

[kidcarter8]

I side with the notion that your team is on the road, down in the score, in an elimination game, and needs to put pressure on the other pitcher and to silence the crowd, and first and third with one out is better than 2nd with 2 outs and a crowd screaming because you just gave them an out at home plate. Risk/reward is greater with holding Judge up than sending him. All of that should have been considered by Nevin PRIOR TO THE GAME. He should know what he's going to do in that situation well before Stanton comes up.


Exactly as Nevin said - your analysis is outcome-based.

[kidcarter8]

Judge acted poorly

You havent commented on this - and I guess see no need to.

[kidcarter8]

That GOAT was THE goat, that night.

Let the games unfold, kid

Oh...I always do

But my guess if you'd lay 3-1 that Astros win a  game 5 with the current McCullers at home.

Best that Chisox avoid those odds.

[josh]

We do assume that they would have had two shots at getting him in from third rather than one shot at getting Stanton in from 2nd.


Right

But assuming a high success rate is the folly.

50% success rate was the stated statistical basis for the assumption that it would have been wiser in that situation.

Are you disagreeing with the stats!?

[Hamilton Samuels]

I side with the notion that your team is on the road, down in the score, in an elimination game, and needs to put pressure on the other pitcher and to silence the crowd, and first and third with one out is better than 2nd with 2 outs and a crowd screaming because you just gave them an out at home plate. Risk/reward is greater with holding Judge up than sending him. All of that should have been considered by Nevin PRIOR TO THE GAME. He should know what he's going to do in that situation well before Stanton comes up.


Exactly as Nevin said - your analysis is outcome-based.

Of course it is, and his isn't? As I said, all of that should have been considered by Nevin PRIOR TO THE GAME. That was not the case

[Hamilton Samuels]

Judge acted poorly

You havent commented on this - and I guess see no need to.

How did Judge act poorly? Explain and I will comment as necessary.

[kidcarter8]

You've played the game.

Find the video and see for yourself.

[josh]

You've played the game.

Find the video and see for yourself.

Sez the poster who wished he could see something that Ham posted about, rather than finding the video himself.

[Hamilton Samuels]

Geez, kid, do you ever answer directly a question that comes your way?

You want to criticize the way he slid? Yeah, maybe feet first is better, but he's still going to be out. Remember, you can't do the Pete Rose play anymore, thanks to that Buster Pussy.

You want to say he should have been off on contact? That wouldn't be wise.

Maybe you'd like to critique his position coming down the third base line, running too far wide of the baseline?

I did see he hit the bag with the wrong foot, and that does take you outside the line, so there's that. But that is not why he's out. he's out because Nevin sent him when he shouldn't have. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUyiWhQoifc

Go to this video, stop it at 2:09.

You will see that Boegarts is catching the ball as Judge hits the bag (with the wrong foot). From there he is a dead duck, but your boy Phil is waving him home.

[kiidcarter8]

Actually the slide almost made him safe, which is why I laugh at those who say it wasn't close.  Poor jump, hesitation around second, wide path second to third, hesitation at third.  Still almost safe.