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Russia will gain eastern Ukraine territories and hold them, as it has Crimea

5 (45.5%)

Russia will temporarily gain eastern Ukraine territories before being forced out of them

2 (18.2%)

Efforts to confront the Russian forces and get them out of Ukraine will lead to Putin's escalating and attacking NATO countries directly with missiles or other destructive measures

0 (0%)

The NATO/World response will be so mild that Putin will go ahead and take the rest of Ukraine

3 (27.3%)

Today Ukraine, tomorrow Moldova and who knows where else

1 (9.1%)

Total Members Voted: 10

Voting closed: March 01, 2022, 01:18:43 PM

[Holly Martins]

BoDiddley,

Two thought provoking posts, thanks.  Curran's (now three day old) analysis (with fascinating Welsh bits) raises the question of how economically strapped Russia is willing to be.  Does anyone there think Ukraine has enough mineral and fossil fuel riches to somehow recoup their (Russia's) losses from sanctions?  Is the Ukraine grain belt also a factor? I was getting the sense they think China might pick up some of the slack, buying more stuff from them when Western markets shut them out.

I had noted a few days back that EU and US shrugged at the Crimea grab in 2014, and then underwhelming response to growing cyber warfare from Russia in the following years.  Yes, when did everybody just start accepting a murderous autocrat thug as if only a mild nuisance?  And then came Trump in 2016, and the ass kissing really ratchets up.   

[Holly Martins]

I guess I should have been able to figure it all out since those typos are similar to mine.
In any event the purpose of sanctions is to bring severe economic pain and to stop aggression, they cannot be symbolic or incremental.
When Russian Oligarchs start hurting so will the common folk. See the decade of 1980 to remember what happened to the USSR.

I am wondering if sanctions will work and if Putin thinks he has China to pick up the economic slack when western markets turn their backs.  Not sure he has the best advisors on these matters.

I have heard the SWIFT sanction proposal has some downsides - detailed here:

https://apnews.com/article/what-is-swift-russia-financial-system-083a5935002c9d06ffd6ac39c13d3ce4

And some sanctions only work if Germans and other pipeline nations are really willing to put on sweaters and lower thermostats.  As well as restart their three remaining nuke plants in Germany.

[Hairy Lime]

A case can be made that the USA should have imposed sanctions 6a lot sooner.
The sanctions could have been imposed earlier.
Yet there are signs they are causing pain in Russia .

No, I think making sure Putin had an off ramp before the invasion was the right move. Even if he did not take it.

[Hairy Lime]

I guess I should have been able to figure it all out since those typos are similar to mine.
In any event the purpose of sanctions is to bring severe economic pain and to stop aggression, they cannot be symbolic or incremental.
When Russian Oligarchs start hurting so will the common folk. See the decade of 1980 to remember what happened to the USSR.

I am wondering if sanctions will work and if Putin thinks he has China to pick up the economic slack when western markets turn their backs.  Not sure he has the best advisors on these matters.

I have heard the SWIFT sanction proposal has some downsides - detailed here:

https://apnews.com/article/what-is-swift-russia-financial-system-083a5935002c9d06ffd6ac39c13d3ce4

And some sanctions only work if Germans and other pipeline nations are really willing to put on sweaters and lower thermostats.  As well as restart their three remaining nuke plants in Germany.

We do need to make sure the sanctions are targeted for the maximum impact on Russia and the minimum on western economies. I would - did, it is the post Red was replying to - make the same point about the harm to the Russian people, though I am aware that the inevitable nature of structures like oligarchs is that the economic pain is never felt most at the top.

[Holly Martins]

Yeah, pain will be everywhere.  I saw VW closed down two factories which depend on parts shipped from Ukraine.  Multiply that sort of disruption by a thousand, across the globe. 

Surgical precision with Putin and oligarch cronies is very difficult.  The EU is freezing the assets of Lavrov and Putin, that might be an approach other nations could follow, expanding to others in Putin's circle. 

Tony wants to bring in Silvio Berlusconi.  I'm sure he would have some terrific ideas. 

[bambu.]

 The people of Ukraine are going to fight to the death.
Ridiculous idea.
They should've surrendered on the first day.
With the world just watching them get massacred, they're never going to win.

[kiidcarter8]

2800 dead Russians.  That is just today.

[Hairy Lime]

The people of Ukraine are going to fight to the death.
Ridiculous idea.
They should've surrendered on the first day.
With the world just watching them get massacred, they're never going to win.

Thank you for your input Marshal Petain.

[Hairy Lime]

Personally the Snake Island attitude seems apt.

[LarryBnDC]

Personally the Snake Island attitude seems apt.

Will probably enter the Ukrainian war culture with same resonance as Remember the Alamo!

[kiidcarter8]

Fuckin war going on but you can still count on idiocy from my Elba brethren.

Prayers for Ukraine getting through this rough night.

[facilitatorn]

We have to pull the plug on anything with right wing Russia connections immediately here in the United States.

All part of the war effort.

[Holly Martins]

Personally the Snake Island attitude seems apt.

Will probably enter the Ukrainian war culture with same resonance as Remember the Alamo!

[Holly Martins]

My prayer would be no young man has to be slaughtered in order to settle political conflicts brought by old men with adequacy issues. 

[bambu.]

The people of Ukraine are going to fight to the death.
Ridiculous idea.
They should've surrendered on the first day.
With the world just watching them get massacred, they're never going to win.

Thank you for your input Marshal Petain.

Surely you don't believe Ukraine can beat Russia.