I wrote the below post on March 23rd.
We saw, Kid. We did not manage to make it more like the flu.
We did not manage to keep deaths down to a 'mere' 1,631 deaths per day. We're at an average of more than 5,700 per day. The world blew past that 128,808 figure almost a month ago (April 14th). 23 days later, we're more than double that.
The United States,
alone averages substantially more than that 1,600 figure. Yesterday was 50% more, though the average is closer to 25% above the former world number.
https://imgur.com/t/the_more_you_know/jfeONpT?fbclid=IwAR21chTDB1M5EpNsmtDF9iM3DMfIuoiFX9eQbAU6Ix-4v8xk19HVdV8kYFw
Exactly
As Trump said today - "it's like nothing anyone has ever seen"
But as Oz said - "maybe we can get it to act more like the flu"
We'll see starting this week.
I edited my post with this analysis:
It stops for COVID-19 on March 18th.
Going into 3/23, we're at 14,638 dead, which is Day 82 to Day 83. The Swine Flu of 2009-2010 doesn't hit that many dead until Day 138 (14,571).
Day 138 for us is going to be May 17th.
So, Kid...
Do you want to bet whether COVID-19 still ahead of the Swine Flu pace by the end of May, when it's Day 152 and the SF was up to 23,129 dead?
The end of June (Day 182), when the SF was up to 43,628?
Day 213 (what will be the end of July for us) saw that the Swine Flu had tapered off - a mere 59,367 had died.
Day 244 (our end of August) was at 83,472, having picked up again, with a vengeance.
Day 274 (our end of September) was at 125,881.
Day 305 (our end of October) was at 185,851, a staggering 60,000 more dead in just a month.
Day 335 (Our end of November) was at ~225,500.
Yesterday, the world saw 1,631 new deaths. If we (society) can keep it from killing more people per day, that would see a 'mere' 48,930 people die per month. Day 70, the end of May, we'd have 128,808 dead... three months ahead of the Swine Flu.
If we have the proportion of new dead to cases stay constant, it's much worse.