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Reports of protests are overblown. A few incidents around the country, but nothing major.

5 (45.5%)

A few major incidents in capitals, but nothing much in DC.

5 (45.5%)

A major incident in DC, but nothing much around the country.

0 (0%)

More than 10 capitals have major upheavals, but nothing much in DC.

0 (0%)

A major incident in DC plus more than 10 capitals with significant upheavals.

1 (9.1%)

More than half the capitals around the country have problems with protesters, but DC is quiet.

0 (0%)

DC has major problems, while more than half the capitals around the country also have considerable trouble with protesters.

0 (0%)

Huge disruption to the day.

0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 9

Voting closed: January 19, 2021, 10:49:21 PM

[NeedsAdjustments]

The funny thing about all this is it's been well-known that Trump downplayed the virus.  Saying that there were 15 cases and it would be down to zero soon, or that it would go away on its own in April, etc.

The revelation isn't that he downplayed the virus.  You're right, we all knew he was doing it.  The revelation is that he did it while being clear-eyed about what the dangers were.

Trump gets a lot of benefit from being stupid.  The low expectations excuse a lot of what he does.  When he says things that make no sense regarding testing or masks, we all think well, he's an idiot who doesn't read, doesn't pay attention to briefings, just generally isn't interested in making decisions based on facts.

But we now know that he knew the facts.  Had at least enough grasp on the situation to have made the right decisions from the start.  But consciously chose to throw Americans into the fire to save the markets and his reelection prospects.

Trump tells Woodward on Feb 7 that the virus travels by air.  After that he held another month and a half of rallies with people packed close together.  What the fuck?

Republicans held two years of hearings over Benghazi(!) because they wanted to argue that Obama misrepresented a single terrorist attack that killed four people in order to avoid a political embarrassment.  Trump has misrepresented a virus in order to avoid political pain and as a result has killed 200,000 but Republicans are like "Meh, you know, didn't want a panic."

Just so atrocious, there aren't words for it any more.

[NeedsAdjustments]

So Gov. Brown of Oregon revealed yesterday that she still hasn't talked to the White House about the fires because they haven't yet returned his call.  The State is current'y facing the prospect of mass evacuations, with no coordination from the Executive Branch.

But you know, Oregon is a Blue State.  And only Trump's friends should expect aid when they need it:

https://www.npr.org/2019/08/01/747196568/russia-says-trump-offered-to-help-putin-fight-forest-fires-in-siberia

Never mind that he was elected to be President of the United States.

[NeedsAdjustments]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-leads-but-plurality-thinks-trump-will-win-election-poll

The Monmouth University survey released on Thursday also suggests that a majority of voters believes there are so-called secret Trump voters in their communities who keep their preference to themselves.




yep

I can't imagine a less interesting finding than one about what voters think other voters are thinking.  And what does it say about your "president" that people want to keep their support of him secret?

A few points; I'll say it again...the 2016 national polling was accurate.  There were issues with state level polling, and this may have been part of the reason, but pollsters learned from that experience.  And if Biden ends up with over 50 percent of the vote and beats Trump by 7 points nationally and still loses, well, that would be really something.

Also, I think a President's approval polling is less susceptible to the "secret voters" issue.  I could be wrong about this, but I think it makes sense that someone would feel less identified with TRUMO 2020(!) if they didn't have to say they were going to vote for him.  And those opinion polls have been remarkable consistent over these three and a half years, and historically the vote percentage for an incumbent President isn't more than a point or two off from that.

Don't forget that 2018 happened.  There was a very real backlash from real not secret voters, when Trump thought he could drum up his voters from out of the swamps with talk of Caravans(!) and that didn't happen.

[NeedsAdjustments]

I agree with that. My biggest fear.

I could be wrong, you could be right, who knows.

But with Kanye, the discrediting of mail-in-ballots, the sabotaging of the Post Office, the welcoming of Russian Disinfo, the talk of delaying the election, the refusal to say that he will concede...

Trump doesn't seem as confident that these secret voters exist.

[NeedsAdjustments]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-leads-but-plurality-thinks-trump-will-win-election-poll

The Monmouth University survey released on Thursday also suggests that a majority of voters believes there are so-called secret Trump voters in their communities who keep their preference to themselves.




yep

I can't imagine a less interesting finding than one about what voters think other voters are thinking.  And what does it say about your "president" that people want to keep their support of him secret?

A few points; I'll say it again...the 2016 national polling was accurate.  There were issues with state level polling, and this may have been part of the reason, but pollsters learned from that experience.  And if Biden ends up with over 50 percent of the vote and beats Trump by 7 points nationally and still loses, well, that would be really something.

Also, I think a President's approval polling is less susceptible to the "secret voters" issue.  I could be wrong about this, but I think it makes sense that someone would feel less identified with TRUMO 2020(!) if they didn't have to say they were going to vote for him.  And those opinion polls have been remarkable consistent over these three and a half years, and historically the vote percentage for an incumbent President isn't more than a point or two off from that.

Don't forget that 2018 happened.  There was a very real backlash from real not secret voters, when Trump thought he could drum up his voters from out of the swamps with talk of Caravans(!) and that didn't happen.

Here is an actually interesting finding from that same Monmouth poll:

81% are certain about their choice
11% made a choice, but could change their mind
8% undecided

Compare this with Aug 2016:

66% are certain
16% could change their mind
18% undecided

The above is why there was so much movement in the last months of the 2016 election, particularly re: Comey's EMAIL(!) investigations.

And it why we should expect far less movement this time, and a (hopefully) limited effect of whatever October surprise Trump and Barr and Johnson have cooking up.

[Yankguy1]

I agree with that. My biggest fear.

I could be wrong, you could be right, who knows.

But with Kanye, the discrediting of mail-in-ballots, the sabotaging of the Post Office, the welcoming of Russian Disinfo, the talk of delaying the election, the refusal to say that he will concede...

Trump doesn't seem as confident that these secret voters exist.

We'll see.  I hope to be really wrong.  My "knowledge" of secret Trump voters is hardly based on any scientific analysis but rather on the large group of people I know who quietly claim to not like Trump personally and do not even think he's done that great a job, but plan to vote for him anyway.  Extrapolated to larger-sized groups and this is a big problem.  One that I'm not certain polling can take into account.  Not everybody is as obnoxious and obvious about their upcoming Trump vote as is Kid.

[kiidcarter8]

I agree with that. My biggest fear.

I could be wrong, you could be right, who knows.

But with Kanye, the discrediting of mail-in-ballots, the sabotaging of the Post Office, the welcoming of Russian Disinfo, the talk of delaying the election, the refusal to say that he will concede...

Trump doesn't seem as confident that these secret voters exist.

Leaving nothing to chance - go for the knockout - and take the decision.

Then it's back to work for the American people.

[Yankguy1]

You're still here?

[kiidcarter8]

The Woodward book -- not even out yet -- has consumed a week of press attention, refocusing the political convo on the virus and forcing Trump on the defensive and boosting Biden.

Another great week for Trump!

Trump's numbers are getting better re:  the virus, not worse.

[kiidcarter8]

You're still here?

Yeah - there are still a few of you I am not ignoring

[NeedsAdjustments]

I agree with that. My biggest fear.

I could be wrong, you could be right, who knows.

But with Kanye, the discrediting of mail-in-ballots, the sabotaging of the Post Office, the welcoming of Russian Disinfo, the talk of delaying the election, the refusal to say that he will concede...

Trump doesn't seem as confident that these secret voters exist.

Leaving nothing to chance - go for the knockout - and take the decision.

Then it's back to work for the American people.

Love that this is how you describe voter suppression and deception.

A Trumpist, through and through.

[NeedsAdjustments]

The Woodward book -- not even out yet -- has consumed a week of press attention, refocusing the political convo on the virus and forcing Trump on the defensive and boosting Biden.

Another great week for Trump!

Trump's numbers are getting better re:  the virus, not worse.

Post the polling.

[NeedsAdjustments]

I agree with that. My biggest fear.

I could be wrong, you could be right, who knows.

But with Kanye, the discrediting of mail-in-ballots, the sabotaging of the Post Office, the welcoming of Russian Disinfo, the talk of delaying the election, the refusal to say that he will concede...

Trump doesn't seem as confident that these secret voters exist.

Leaving nothing to chance - go for the knockout - and take the decision.

Then it's back to work for the American people.

Love that this is how you describe voter suppression and deception.

A Trumpist, through and through.

A credible Administration wouldn't resort to these tactics at all of course, but allying with enemies to discredit and disrupt the elections and crippling the post office is a "just in case" scenario for Trump?

You fuckers are too much.

[kiidcarter8]

I agree with that. My biggest fear.

I could be wrong, you could be right, who knows.

But with Kanye, the discrediting of mail-in-ballots, the sabotaging of the Post Office, the welcoming of Russian Disinfo, the talk of delaying the election, the refusal to say that he will concede...

Trump doesn't seem as confident that these secret voters exist.

Leaving nothing to chance - go for the knockout - and take the decision.

Then it's back to work for the American people.

Love that this is how you describe voter suppression and deception.

A Trumpist, through and through.

Both sides are doing what the can to get every vote (see Dems' Wisconsin shenanigans)

[kiidcarter8]

A few points; I'll say it again...the 2016 national polling was accurate.  There were issues with state level polling, and this may have been part of the reason, but pollsters learned from that experience.  And if Biden ends up with over 50 percent of the vote and beats Trump by 7 points nationally and still loses, well, that would be really something.


Well said

Surely Trump needs to cut into the current Biden polling advantage

Hillary was ahead by almost as much at similar juncture - and races do almost always TIGHTEN as the day approaches