For those seeking some time frame and assurance.
Here's the experience of Shanghai, the little town I call home.
SH Summary: 2 month lockdown; 3-4 week expected easing and return to normal
Roughly a 7 week long voluntary lockdown, which is starting to ease up now, with more gathering spots, more people going to the office, etc. Things haven't returned to normal in Week 8 -- schools still closed, half the folks working form home, probably 2/3rds of small shops closed -- but are trending that way. I expect a roughly 3-4 week easing period, while making sure there isn't a 2nd wave of cases, or any outbreaks in or around Shanghai/China.
More details:
To give you the timeframe in Shanghai. The scope and spread of the virus form Wuhan to all of Hubei Province occurred mostly in late Dec and early- mid-Jan. Concerns about the virus really kicked in during the week of Chinese New Year, which sees an annual mass migration of roughly the population of the US (335M) moving throughout China. Which was obviously dangerous for spreading the virus nationwide (and beyond)
CNY was officially scheduled from FRI Jan 24 - Jan 30. In SH, the govt extended the holiday a full week to avoid a returning crush -- as most people in Shanghai have family in other provinces and SH largely empties out during CNY. So SH's holiday closures went on for two weeks until Feb 9. Generally most things in SH close during the holiday anyway (think the week between XMAS and New Year's in the West). SH is usually a ghost town during the week of CNY.
So that's two weeks of holiday lockdown. During that time, the city gov't started restricting shops and all gathering places closed down (schools, theaters, gyms, etc). About half the restaurants stayed open. Food stores, drug stores and essential services such as banks, buses, subways stayed open.
This was followed by a 3 week FEB voluntary lockdown. The Feb 10 return to work primarily meant folks worked from home as much as possible. Everybody wore masks in public. Food stores and office buildings did a digital temp check before allowing anyone in anywhere. Guards were posted at community alley entrances and at apt building entrances, checking temps, recording outsiders who came and went in case contact tracing became necessary.
I managed to fit in a 2 week Euro vacation to the Mediterranean from Feb 19 - March 3. Late Feb and early March saw more folks returning to offices, but still lots of folks working from home (including teachers).
This week, starting gradually from Mon March 16 saw a decided easing, with more shops open (say 1/3), more people on the street (masked), more going to offices. The pet market reopened this week, some basketball gyms, including hoops in the park reopened as well, midweek -- Tuesday or Wednesday.
So basically Shanghai experienced a pretty strong voluntary lockdown for 7 weeks. There was a week before CNY when folks started wearing masks and precautions were getting in place. And schools are closedstill , large gatherings are out, but things are starting to return towards normal in Week 8.
Shanghai has officially tallied 357 cases and 4 deaths over the last 10 weeks. The Hubei outbreak is something akin to a huge Kansas/Missouri (if they had a population of 60M), with Shanghai perched along the eastern seaboard where WASH DC is. Though in terms of the economy and domestic tourism, SH is much more akin to NYC.
A lot of factors can go into this, but Shanghai experience a 7 week voluntary lockdown, with a lot of precautions and checks. I expect things will gradually trend to normal over the next 4 weeks. Depending of course on new cases or any outbreaks. People and the gov't still vigilant, but more people out, more places open, and fewer temp checks, etc.
Hope that helps.
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