How short - and how do you arrive at this conclusion?
All I can base things on are my experiences in China and what I read about South Korea, Japan, Singapore, HK, etc. An 8 week lockdown, with most places closed, masks worn by everyone in public, temp checks, testing and contact tracing has worked effectively, so far, in Shanghai and most of these other Asian areas hit early by the virus. Doesn't mean a 2nd wave of infection or that small or large outbreaks can't still occur. But this week (Week 9), we've been given the Almost Clear sign and most of us are scurrying out of our dens.
With good prophylaxis and compliance, 6-10 weeks of social/economic disruption and self-isolation should do the trick. Hopefully the school and sports closures and deaths, and the lockdowns will encourage or force Americans to comply. A high compliance rate is critical.
Unfortunately the number of test-confirmed cases in the US is very low since testing is only beginning to be ramped up (very late in the spread), so I think US folks have had a false sense of security. Multiply the official US case tallies by at least a factor of 10 to have a more realistic idea of the true number of infections.
I'd note a key response difference is the use of masks. In Shanghai/China, everyone you see is wearing a surgical mask or heavier-duty masks in public, and it jolts you and forces you to take it seriously.
If my 10x (or more) the number of reported Americans are infected that's a lot of infected folks walking around undetected who should be wearing masks (and you should be wearing masks to protect against).
And if you don't believe me about the true number of cases, NY just doubled its confirmed cases as a result of more testing. One US health official said to multiply the official numbers by 5-10 times, which I thought was very conservative. A health official in Ohio estimated there might be 50k cases in that state already! I can source that info if anyone wants. I think my 10x the official count estimation is likely too low, but at least gets you in the right ballpark.
Hope I'm wrong, but it's
possible the large spreads in Europe v. the relative containment in Asia are related to mask wearing. Yes, the aging population in Europe doesn't help, but Japan has the very oldest population. Then there's the social convention of air kiss greetings and even handshakes in Euroland. And Asian conformity likely comes in handy when dealing with an epidemic. But face masks are one of the big differences between eastern and western precautions. Good luck.
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