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The vaccine for the novel coronavirus should be

available to all Americans
- 4 (100%)
available only to Americans who can afford $3000 or whose insurance covers it
- 0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 4

Voting closed: March 04, 2020, 12:32:27 PM


Pages: 1 ... 1993 1994 [1995] 1996 1997 ... 2027

Author Topic: Trump Administration  (Read 287197 times)

josh

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Re: Trump Administration
« Reply #29910 on: March 27, 2020, 03:17:26 AM »

The length of time that a COVID-19 patient will need a ventilator is up to 11 days versus the 3 or maybe 4 days for a regular flu patient. That means that while one ventilator might have served 3 flu patients, it won't do it for COVID-19.

One emergency solution is to use one ventilator for multiple patients at the same time.  I don't know the logistics and dangers of that.  But NY Presbyterian Hospital got a waiver to be allowed to do so.  And has started trial operations.  Another hospital was testing out a system to allow one ventilator to supply 4 patients with mechanical breathing.

In emergencies, and shortages, one has to get creative.

But that doesn't change what the need is, merely provides a workaround because the need is not met.

See also: scarves instead of masks.
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The day Richard Nixon failed to answer that subpoena is the day he was subject to impeachment because he took the power from Congress over the impeachment process away from Congress, and he became the judge and jury." ~Lindsey Graham

josh

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Re: Trump Administration
« Reply #29911 on: March 27, 2020, 03:19:50 AM »

I still think an important question is:
Why have more Americans been infected than Chinese?

And the followup:
Why will more people likely die in America than China?

We are more mobile and our government is less... disciplined than theirs, our people less responsive to discipline than theirs.

Can you imagine a random religious leader on a local level defying Beijing to hold a 1000 person religious event or a regional governor telling the Premier that they're going to continue having their beach parties for the time being?
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The day Richard Nixon failed to answer that subpoena is the day he was subject to impeachment because he took the power from Congress over the impeachment process away from Congress, and he became the judge and jury." ~Lindsey Graham

josh

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Re: Trump Administration
« Reply #29912 on: March 27, 2020, 03:34:13 AM »

Who says it's bogus, Ward?

EVERYBODY who cares about the truth:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/politics/fact-check-trump-coronavirus-briefing/index.html
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The day Richard Nixon failed to answer that subpoena is the day he was subject to impeachment because he took the power from Congress over the impeachment process away from Congress, and he became the judge and jury." ~Lindsey Graham

josh

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Re: Trump Administration
« Reply #29913 on: March 27, 2020, 03:49:19 AM »

We're not returning to normal in April says Bill Gates:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A71lfXrQlxU&fbclid=IwAR0HCGcV7afLjm07VCMFT35x6lTYg7FH7P1MOvjVNKirFBD_vgBll6uSlJ0

Presented only because you used Bill Gates to try to support something that Bill Gates didn't actually agree with, Kid.
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The day Richard Nixon failed to answer that subpoena is the day he was subject to impeachment because he took the power from Congress over the impeachment process away from Congress, and he became the judge and jury." ~Lindsey Graham

bodiddley

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Re: Trump Administration
« Reply #29914 on: March 27, 2020, 04:39:53 AM »

We are more mobile and our government is less... disciplined than theirs, our people less responsive to discipline than theirs.

As for mobility, the virus started spreading in China right before Chinese New Year's, which is the largest human migration on the planet where roughly the population of the United States (330M) head off to their hometown and then reverse course 10 days later.  China has huge numbers of people working outside of their hometowns and away from their families, while hometown attachment means more to people here (shared local sub-dialects; family history going back centuries; all official gov't matters have to be processed through your official hometown, etc).

The government is more centralized in China, though in an emergency the US Federal gov't has enormous powers if they choose to use them.

Quote
Can you imagine a random religious leader on a local level defying Beijing to hold a 1000 person religious event or a regional governor telling the Premier that they're going to continue having their beach parties for the time being?

Religion not a useful example for China, since the gov't is always keeping a close eye on and repressing religious activities.

In South Korea and Iran religious gatherings accelerated the spread of the virus.  Iranian officials were very reluctant to close down shrines, where people touch and kiss venerated objects.  [for those keeping score at home, the Shiites are more akin to Catholics and Orthodox Christians in terms of worshiping ancestors -- saints in Christianity -- while the Sunnis are more like Protestants in their disdain for images.  All stemming from how one interprets the commandment Thou shall not worship graven images]

In South Korea, I was wondering if the larger number of virus cases was the result of the virus spreading at one or two large Christian religious gatherings in Daegu, where I'm assuming more women would attend than men.

As for a large religious gathering in Louisiana, it's just a failure of leadership.  Trump waffling on how serious the virus is.  The LA Guv not enforcing quarantine laws.  The simplest thing is not to allow the meeting place to open on whatever scheduled day.  Or you threaten to arrest anyone calling for such a gathering.  Very irresponsible, especially since New Orleans has a significant outbreak related to the Mardi Gras gatherings.

I was in Valletta, the capital of Malta for about 5 days of Mardi Gras there (there were two floats that featured Donald Trump, one with Putin as his sidekick, the other he was riding with Uncle Sam).  And there were crowds lining the parade routes and lots of people in a fairly small historic area in public, and it was a bit jolting after I had just experienced two weeks of lockdown in Shanghai.  The last few days we were in Malta, the viral outbreak in Italy was becoming big news, and you'd look at the Mardi Gras parades and hope the virus wasn't among us.  From Italy, from China, etc.  The Maltese Carnivale attracts tourists from all over Europe.
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josh

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Re: Trump Administration
« Reply #29915 on: March 27, 2020, 08:39:25 AM »

Quote
Can you imagine a random religious leader on a local level defying Beijing to hold a 1000 person religious event or a regional governor telling the Premier that they're going to continue having their beach parties for the time being?

Religion not a useful example for China, since the gov't is always keeping a close eye on and repressing religious activities.
...
...
As for a large religious gathering in Louisiana, it's just a failure of leadership.  Trump waffling on how serious the virus is.  The LA Guv not enforcing quarantine laws.  The simplest thing is not to allow the meeting place to open on whatever scheduled day.  Or you threaten to arrest anyone calling for such a gathering.  Very irresponsible, especially since New Orleans has a significant outbreak related to the Mardi Gras gatherings.

Actually, it is exactly because of the government's position on religion that I chose it. People would not be allowed to be disruptive in that way. Ditto my comparison of a regional political leader's doing something of the sort that the Louisiana (and other places') "leadership" did.

It is a failure of leadership at every level.
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The day Richard Nixon failed to answer that subpoena is the day he was subject to impeachment because he took the power from Congress over the impeachment process away from Congress, and he became the judge and jury." ~Lindsey Graham

kiidcarter8

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Re: Trump Administration
« Reply #29916 on: March 27, 2020, 08:41:15 AM »

"Why. Isnt. Trump. Ordering. Companies. To. Make. The. Fucking. Ventilators?"


In time this can be judged.
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josh

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Re: Trump Administration
« Reply #29917 on: March 27, 2020, 08:54:13 AM »

This set of links provides a rosier outlook/projection than my most pessimistic numbers, positing total deaths in the US of a bit over 81,000. It looks at beds, ICU beds, and ventilator needs, shows what the shortages are, and also shows the range of each of those figures - as few deaths as 39,000 and as many as 162,000, if I am reading the graph correctly. Still more optimistic than my worst case scenarios, but see my comment below on their key assumption.

The first link is the visual display of the projections:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections?fbclid=IwAR0XnjBroFK4yNyIP6_s6ga5GSWhnB_y6gwfZmNj9xca5qfI_KL3WPrIGmg

The second link is the associated text with that display, including some of the methodology underlying it. I still don't understand some of their conclusions (like the April 14th peak for resource use, aligning with the "three weeks" mentioned 3 days ago), but it's more concrete to this mathhead than it was. The biggest problem with it, IMO, is "The projections assume the continuation of strong social distancing measures and other protective measures." I don't think that is a safe assumption. Regardless, here is the information:
http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

The third link provides a state by state projection, from the same source. (To select an individual state, click on Interact with the data visualization and a new window will open.)
http://www.healthdata.org/data-visualization/covid-19-us-state-state-projections
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The day Richard Nixon failed to answer that subpoena is the day he was subject to impeachment because he took the power from Congress over the impeachment process away from Congress, and he became the judge and jury." ~Lindsey Graham

LarryBnDC

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Re: Trump Administration
« Reply #29918 on: March 27, 2020, 08:58:37 AM »

"Why. Isnt. Trump. Ordering. Companies. To. Make. The. Fucking. Ventilators?"


In time this can be judged.

I guess the GOP efforts to dismantle the ACA can now be seen to be hypocritical and shortsighted.

The stimulus under Obama wasn’t big enough at the time because the GOP insisted on screaming about debt and deficits and they were full of shit.

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kiidcarter8

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Re: Trump Administration
« Reply #29919 on: March 27, 2020, 09:01:40 AM »

We're not returning to normal in April says Bill Gates:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A71lfXrQlxU&fbclid=IwAR0HCGcV7afLjm07VCMFT35x6lTYg7FH7P1MOvjVNKirFBD_vgBll6uSlJ0

Presented only because you used Bill Gates to try to support something that Bill Gates didn't actually agree with, Kid.

Overall - good to see Gates's optimism re:  how US can shut this down.  His one differing point is advising not to "open up" an area that has very few cases - due to the risk that cases "will double daily". 

Gates and I agree - as I have already posted that in time the US will be needed to help less fortunate (read:  poorer) nations who have not been able to use the same methods we did to combat the virus.

Thanks for the link.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 09:25:14 AM by kiidcarter8 »
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kiidcarter8

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Re: Trump Administration
« Reply #29920 on: March 27, 2020, 09:05:54 AM »

The length of time that a COVID-19 patient will need a ventilator is up to 11 days versus the 3 or maybe 4 days for a regular flu patient. That means that while one ventilator might have served 3 flu patients, it won't do it for COVID-19.

One emergency solution is to use one ventilator for multiple patients at the same time.  I don't know the logistics and dangers of that.  But NY Presbyterian Hospital got a waiver to be allowed to do so.  And has started trial operations.  Another hospital was testing out a system to allow one ventilator to supply 4 patients with mechanical breathing.

In emergencies, and shortages, one has to get creative.

But that doesn't change what the need is, merely provides a workaround because the need is not met.

See also: scarves instead of masks.

It would be instructive to have more info in the case of the nurse that died in NY.  The complaint is about not having proper PPE.  What PPE did he have?  What was he missing?  Nobody is saying.  What are the other variables in the case?  Who was he treating?  How many in the same PPE?  Etc.

I can appreciate the sendoff CNN (Chris Cuomo) gave Mr Kelly.  But more info could help shape the case/issue/fix.
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kiidcarter8

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Re: Trump Administration
« Reply #29921 on: March 27, 2020, 09:26:57 AM »

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bodiddley

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Re: Trump Administration
« Reply #29922 on: March 27, 2020, 09:42:07 AM »

Quote
“If we were to go on lockdown where nobody saw anybody else for 28 days — two times the incubation period — we are pretty sure we can stop the spread of the virus,” she said. “But, that’s not very reasonable, economically or socially,” said Dr. Catherine Troisi, an epidemiologist at University of Texas, Houston.

Why not?  Shut down the economy for one month and bounce right back with no cases, except maybe those seriously ill in ICU units.

But you don't need such extremes.  Lockdowns with exceptions for buying food, medicine, essentials.  Social distancing, face masks, temp checks.  Worked in China after 8 weeks.  And this was with a huge outbreak that had already spread.  Most cases in China were confined to Hubei Province.

So you do a serious mandatory lockdown in NYC and wherever there are significant outbreaks and do more voluntary lockdowns in lower risk areas.

Shanghai limited infections to 468 officially diagnosed cases and just 5 deaths with 129 unresolved cases.  In Shanghai, the buses and subway ran the whole time.  Food and drug stores stayed open.  About 1/4 of restaurants stayed open.  You could go out whenever you wanted, it's just most things were closed and there was a virus out there.

Basically we know how to stop and limit the virus and it's a disgrace the US didn't implement measures about a month earlier, instead of waiting for lareg outbreaks to get a foothold.
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NeedsAdjustments

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Re: Trump Administration
« Reply #29923 on: March 27, 2020, 09:48:11 AM »

I still think an important question is:
Why have more Americans been infected than Chinese?

And the followup:
Why will more people likely die in America than China?

These are the bottom line key questions.  And the Trump worshippers here don't have an answer.

Short answer from me is; Early February the Trump Administration thought COVID would be good for US jobs.

The implications of that, and where their heads were vs. where they needed to be to prepare for this crisis, speaks volumes.
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"When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done."  -  The impeached "president" on Feb 27, 2020

bodiddley

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Re: Trump Administration
« Reply #29924 on: March 27, 2020, 09:51:47 AM »

When the economy was in freefall after the Bush Crash, the Recovery Act, Obama's stimulus measure passed 246-183 in the House without a single Republican vote  the Senate by a vote of 60-38 with all Democrats and only three Republicans in support.

Obama was unable to get the amount over $1T which is what many advisers were calling for (roughly $1.2T).  Obama had to reduce the bill to under $800B in order to get the necessary GOP support to break a threatened filibuster, and was forced to include fairly useless tax breaks as over 1/3 of the bill.  McConnell led the opposition to the stimulus bill.  And most GOPers derided the notion that Gov't spending could resuscitate the economy and denied that govt money could have a multiplier effect.

That was how bipartisan the GOP was in an emergency when there was a DEM president (and the GOP crashed the economy).  Flash forward to today and you get unanimous votes in the Senate and just one jackass GOP thwarting things in the House.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 10:56:22 AM by bodiddley »
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