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Reports of protests are overblown. A few incidents around the country, but nothing major.

5 (45.5%)

A few major incidents in capitals, but nothing much in DC.

5 (45.5%)

A major incident in DC, but nothing much around the country.

0 (0%)

More than 10 capitals have major upheavals, but nothing much in DC.

0 (0%)

A major incident in DC plus more than 10 capitals with significant upheavals.

1 (9.1%)

More than half the capitals around the country have problems with protesters, but DC is quiet.

0 (0%)

DC has major problems, while more than half the capitals around the country also have considerable trouble with protesters.

0 (0%)

Huge disruption to the day.

0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 9

Voting closed: January 19, 2021, 10:49:21 PM

[bodiddley]

The PRC gov't was providing daily updates via fairly universal phone apps.
Rumors flew around about cases in Shanghai.  I heard from 3 friends that there was a pregnant Wuhan woman who tested positive at the Maternity Hospital directly across the street from me (actually in a different district since my street is the dividing line).  Another case was supposedly detected at my nearby subway station.  No idea if these were accurate reports, but they were passed on in real time.  Though some mentioned that they were unconfirmed rumors.  There was also a case identified transiting at Shanghai airport the day before I flew out.  Again, unconfirmed.

I'd be skeptical of the Wuhan and Hubei numbers, but a fair amount of that doubt is because of the lack of testing and in Wuhan the limit of medical help at times.

Taiwan has a total of 440 reported cases.  And just 7 deaths.
Does that raise the same suspicions?
How about Hong Kong 1048 infections and 4 deaths?

China's 16K cases outside of Hubei compares with Japan, and China took stronger measures but had an internal outbreak to contend with.

It isn't a hard virus to stop if you take sufficient measures and especially implement them early.  We're hearing that a 2-week earlier lockdown in the US -- roughly March 2, when I was calling for mask wearing, would have reduced deaths by 90%.  2 weeks.  If the US took the measures China did on March 2, the virus impact would have been sharply limited and the economy could have begun reopening by now (China did a 9 week economic lockdown).

[bankshot1]

Bo

I've no idea if the Chinese CV stats are legit or not. And unless you're privy to Chinese government data, I suspect you don't either.

But i think you're missing the obvious point.

Given everything we know, have seen from this new virus, how contagious it is, its incubation period, etc. a virus that made its worldwide debut during flu season, and could easily in the earliest stages be confused with the flu in its various forms, the Chinese gov. actions to shutdown the country and isolate Wuhan, were almost prescient, as if they knew in the earliest days, as this virus spread, exactly what they were dealing with.

And with a new virus there were no widespread tests to ID victims. Yet China shutdown Wuhan immediately.

You ascribe their effectivness to being extraordinarily proactive.

Maybe, I don't know.

it just seems there waa insufficient time to really understand the threat.

And it leads to observations and questions, and maybe connecting dots that may or may not be connected. I don't know.

[josh]

it just seems there waa insufficient time to really understand the threat.

And it leads to observations and questions, and maybe connecting dots that may or may not be connected. I don't know.

I disagree.

You keep skipping past Bo's point about SARS, but it's an important one.

They got to learn from past mistakes, theirs and others. And they did.

The US, once upon a time, had done the same. But this time around, we ignored the lessons - not everywhere, but a lot.

There are places in the US where the local health folks went to full measures almost immediately. There are places like New Zealand that did, as well.

The Chinese didn't act quite as quickly as you seem to be thinking, Banks. They didn't batten down all their hatches for weeks after their first cases. Had they acted as quickly as you think, their numbers, too, would be smaller.

[Yankguy1]

I think Bank's point, and the point that I was trying to make yesterday, is that the Chinese government has never been particularly honest.  Why are we supposed to believe any numbers they release?

[josh]

I think Bank's point, and the point that I was trying to make yesterday, is that the Chinese government has never been particularly honest.  Why are we supposed to believe any numbers they release?

No, I think his point is that it is as if they knew what was coming... as in, they did know, possibly.

I could be wrong, but that is what I thought he meant.

[josh]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/13/politics/cnn-poll-2020/index.html

[bankshot1]

it just seems there waa insufficient time to really understand the threat.

And it leads to observations and questions, and maybe connecting dots that may or may not be connected. I don't know.

I disagree.

You keep skipping past Bo's point about SARS, but it's an important one.

They got to learn from past mistakes, theirs and others. And they did.

The US, once upon a time, had done the same. But this time around, we ignored the lessons - not everywhere, but a lot.

There are places in the US where the local health folks went to full measures almost immediately. There are places like New Zealand that did, as well.

The Chinese didn't act quite as quickly as you seem to be thinking, Banks. They didn't batten down all their hatches for weeks after their first cases. Had they acted as quickly as you think, their numbers, too, would be smaller.

The Chinese acted quickly enough to isolate Wuhan and stop travel between two of its largest cities, a city of 10M and a city of 24M, in the earliest days, when little was known about the disease.

There is too much I don't know and I generally don't accept impausible explanations at face value.

I suspect but don't know that China knew more than they are letting on,

And I strongly believe the US lagging insufficient response has lead to needless death and a likely economic depression.

Both my suspicions and beliefs can be true.

[bankshot1]

I think Bank's point, and the point that I was trying to make yesterday, is that the Chinese government has never been particularly honest.  Why are we supposed to believe any numbers they release?

No, I think his point is that it is as if they knew what was coming... as in, they did know, possibly.

I could be wrong, but that is what I thought he meant.

A flu-like disease, and one that in its earliest days would have likely been IDed as a flu attacks Wuhan. Why in the absence of testing did China quarantine a city of 10M?

Maybe the lessons of Sars almost 2-daceades earlier led to a ounce of prevention.

or they knew it wasn't the flu.

And no I do not take at face value the stats or public proouncements of an authoritarian regime partiularly when it comes to their possible role in not adequately warning the world of its coming. And who may own a big slug of responsibility.

And this is the same regime that jailed the doctor who issued warnings of CV.

I'm not a conspiracy guy, but this one has some interesting moving parts.

[bodiddley]

But i think you're missing the obvious point.

Given everything we know, have seen from this new virus, how contagious it is, its incubation period, etc. a virus that made its worldwide debut during flu season, and could easily in the earliest stages be confused with the flu in its various forms, the Chinese gov. actions to shutdown the country and isolate Wuhan, were almost prescient, as if they knew in the earliest days, as this virus spread, exactly what they were dealing with.

And with a new virus there were no widespread tests to ID victims. Yet China shutdown Wuhan immediately.

I think you've missed a lot of the reports about the early stages of the virus in China.  The virus turned up in December in Wuhan.  Doctors noticed that some flu patients were developing severe pneumonia.  They ran tests and discovered that it wasn't any kind of normal flu.  Ran more tests and found it was a novel coronavirus.  Word was passed up official channels, and the national gov't didn't want this to get out.  I think they expected this to be pretty containable like SARS in 2003 (8K total infections).  Late December, a few doctors in Wuhan and others tried to get word out about the new coronavirus and possibility of an epidemic and they were silenced/punished.

China actually knew it was a novel coronavirus and dawdled with that info for 3 or 4 weeks.  At the time they didn't know it was highly contagious, and apparently believed it was just linked to one outbreak at a fish market and could be controlled with contact tracing and isolation and medical treatment of a few hundred.  They also apparently hoped that it related to animal transmission and human-to-human transmission would be rare.

A couple of things forced China's hand.  One a case turned up in Thailand circa Jan 12, with links to Wuhan making it clear that this was contagious and had already spread pretty far.  And Chinese New Year was set to begin when roughly 300M Chinese travel all over the nation and abroad. 

That's only when the gov't kicked into high gear with lockdowns and such, around Jan 23, after they had known about the novel coronavirus for nearly one month.  China acted too late in Wuhan and Hubei which is why there were over 60K cases there.  The PRC did take strong controllability measures after that -- contact tracing, isolation, quarantine, treatment, masks -- which are pretty standard practice.

Here's some timeline:
mid-Dec 2019 -- a new type of pneumonia is reported in Wuhan
Dec 31 China reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) cases of pneumonia in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, caused by a novel coronavirus
Jan 3  CDC Director Redfield spoke with China's CFDA
Jan 7  China sequences the COVID-19 virus genome
Jan 10  China shares the novel coronavirus genome with the WHO
Jan 11  1st COVID-19 death (in Wuhan)
Jan 11  CDC has the genome and begins preparing its (bungled) test
Jan 13  1st case outside China (Thailand)
Jan 16  German Co. has a COVID-19 test that the WHO adopts
Jan 20  the national PRC Gov't takes over
Jan 23 Wuhan is locked down

Basically, China wasted 3 weeks between when they knew it was a novel coronavirus and when they implemented a lockdown.  Which is why they wound up with around 60K cases in Hubei (nearly 50K of those in Wuhan).
Much like the US, if they had acted just a few weeks earlier, they could have stopped most of the transmission.  China delayed and dawdled and wound up with a big outbreak in Wuhan only contained by pretty drastic measures.

[bodiddley]

Let me simplify.

From when China knew that it was a novel coronavirus (at least Dec 31) to the lockdown of Wuhan (Jan 23) more than 3 weeks passed by.  Much like what happened in the US later.

During those 3 or 4 weeks, transmissions occurred unchecked.
Leading to a huge outbreak in Wuhan, and a lesser one throughout Hubei.
If it weren't for Europe and the US doing a terrible job, China's outbreak would look large and preventable.

The main difference is after China dawdled for 3 weeks, the gov't took very strong measures to control the outbreak in Wuhan, extended that to Hubei and then various lockdowns were implemented throughout China during the Chinese New Year.  Measures taken in Europe and the US were late and weak.  Transmissions weren't controlled.   Infections soared.  Wasn't until April the US even considered face masks useful/necessary.

[LarryBnDC]

Meanwhile this pandemic rages through the black and brown communities...

[facilitatorn]

Meanwhile this pandemic rages through the black and brown communities...

It probably has something to do with why trump thinks he can get away with this. Among some of his most ardent supporters, victimizing black and brown communities through either active measures or through profound neglect is the #1 policy goal.

As their relatives start to die, they’ll join the rest of us in understanding the colossal failures of trump and his broken GOP.
 
http://www.vox.com/2020/5/13/21255221/trump-coronavirus-plan-covid-reopening-lockdown-liberate

[REDSTATEWARD]

News Item-AP


Acting Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell has released a list of names of Obama administration officials who purportedly requested to "unmask" the identity of Michael Flynn during the presidential transition period.

The list features top figures including then-Vice President Joe Biden, then-FBI Director James Comey and intelligence chiefs John Brennan and James Clapper. It also included Obama's then-chief of staff.
Acting Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell has released a list of names of Obama administration officials who purportedly requested to "unmask" the identity of Michael Flynn during the presidential transition period.

The list features top figures including then-Vice President Joe Biden, then-FBI Director James Comey and intelligence chiefs John Brennan and James Clapper.

[LarryBnDC]

Meanwhile this pandemic rages through the black and brown communities...

It probably has something to do with why trump thinks he can get away with this. Among some of his most ardent supporters, victimizing black and brown communities through either active measures or through profound neglect is the #1 policy goal.

As their relatives start to die, they’ll join the rest of us in understanding the colossal failures of trump and his broken GOP.
 
http://www.vox.com/2020/5/13/21255221/trump-coronavirus-plan-covid-reopening-lockdown-liberate

[LarryBnDC]

News Item-AP


Acting Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell has released a list of names of Obama administration officials who purportedly requested to "unmask" the identity of Michael Flynn during the presidential transition period.

The list features top figures including then-Vice President Joe Biden, then-FBI Director James Comey and intelligence chiefs John Brennan and James Clapper. It also included Obama's then-chief of staff.
Acting Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell has released a list of names of Obama administration officials who purportedly requested to "unmask" the identity of Michael Flynn during the presidential transition period.

The list features top figures including then-Vice President Joe Biden, then-FBI Director James Comey and intelligence chiefs John Brennan and James Clapper.

Yeah.

So?