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Reports of protests are overblown. A few incidents around the country, but nothing major.

5 (45.5%)

A few major incidents in capitals, but nothing much in DC.

5 (45.5%)

A major incident in DC, but nothing much around the country.

0 (0%)

More than 10 capitals have major upheavals, but nothing much in DC.

0 (0%)

A major incident in DC plus more than 10 capitals with significant upheavals.

1 (9.1%)

More than half the capitals around the country have problems with protesters, but DC is quiet.

0 (0%)

DC has major problems, while more than half the capitals around the country also have considerable trouble with protesters.

0 (0%)

Huge disruption to the day.

0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 9

Voting closed: January 19, 2021, 10:49:21 PM

[NeedsAdjustments]

Poll puts Trump down 14 points to Biden in general election showdown

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/poll-trump-down-14-points-to-biden-in-general-election-showdown

before everyone dies of c19 or police brutality

That poll - some would call it an outlier - should right itself next week

We shall see.  Things might just get worse for Donald. 

If by "righting itself" you mean Biden will settle into only a +8 lead nationally, that is probably the more likely scenario.

[kidcarter8]

Real Clear average currently Biden +8

You will forgive me for using IBD and Emerson, currently at +3 and +6 - as polling seemed skewed by 3-4 points toward Clinton in 2016, final numbers considered.

Is Trump buried?  I honestly don't think we can state this til at least mid September.

[kidcarter8]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

[kidcarter8]

Bear in mind that the profile of a "likely voter" may be changing,  so polls based on past years projections of a likely voter may be off.   Rasmussen deserves careful scrutiny in this regard.   Millions of Americans are waking up to the dire necessity of voting a demented sociopath bigot out of office, along with his Senate enablers.

Very true

Will they show up?  is the real unknown for 11/3.  It is arguable that in 2016 the answer for Democrats was mostly NO.

Was it apathy?  Candidate driven?

Can issues wear off over months?  Surely Biden would prefer that the election be tomorrow.

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I think "national polls" are irrelevant

Irrelevant?  No.  If the poll was showing Trump up or even with Biden, you would be saying Trump is a shoo-in.

Any single poll needs to be looked at with eyes open to its flaws, including this one that polls registered voters over likely voters.  But I don't think its meaningless, particularly that it shows Biden with well over 50% support. There aren't a lot of undecided voters in this race.  50% support for Biden, even at a national level, is a bad, bad sign for Trump.

Overall, polling is showing Trump in a uniquely bad polling position for an incumbent.  Considering the disaster his Administration has been (a historically unpopular "president" from day one) you could argue that it should be worse for him than it is.  But kiidcarter8 and REDSTATEWARD are daily reminders of how consuming state media and hyper partisanship puts the blinders on people. 

[Hamilton Samuels]

I think "national polls" are irrelevant

Agree. They make for headlines and help fundraising, but they're not necessarily representative of the electoral college. The Steve Kornacki maps of each state's counties is far more helpful. But I haven't seen one of those in a while. Wonder how cancelled Chris Matthews is doing, btw?

[NeedsAdjustments]

You will forgive me for using IBD and Emerson, currently at +3 and +6 - as polling seemed skewed by 3-4 points toward Clinton in 2016, final numbers considered.

Forgive you for picking out the two polls that make Trump's position look the least bad, for no other rational reason?  I forgive you, kiidcarter8.  Your bias is totally expected.

As I have pointed out to you before, national polling was largely correct in 2016.  National polling had Clinton up by 3 to 4 points, she won the national vote by over 2.  And even if it were "skewed" plus 4 points in 2016 you are talking about an election with far more undecideds and volatility created by FBI announcements on investigations right up until the end.

While no doubt Trump will do his best to create the later and Barr will comply, we don't have the former this year.

[Hamilton Samuels]

Rasmussen for Tuesday Jun 9

-17/-11


same as 5/20.  Equal to Jan 2019 number.

Trump has come back from such a low.  But is there time in this instance?

(Overall low was -26, during first year)

The only polls that matter are on November 3rd, if the GOP allows Americans to vote.

[NeedsAdjustments]

Is Trump buried?  I honestly don't think we can state this til at least mid September.

I honestly don't think anyone is stating that.  Yankguy still thinks Trump will win.

What we can state is that the polling landscape is very bad for Trump; approval headed below 40%, +9 generic ballot lead for Congressional Democrats, and of course national polling that puts Biden's position in line with that of a popular incumbent.

And while yes, 2016 demonstrated the limits of national polls in predicting the electoral college winner, and state polling has more noise, there are good signs there for Biden too.  He is leading in some polls in Georgia and Texas, for fucks sake.

The Trump Administration has been terrible and the polling reflects it.  But we know Trump will play dirty, and we know Republicans in Congress will stand behind him no matter what it means for our Democracy.  So yeah, there are unknowns.

[Hamilton Samuels]

But kiidcarter8 and REDSTATEWARD are daily reminders of how consuming state media and hyper partisanship puts the blinders on people

To be fair, "hyper-partisanship" is not exclusive to committed conservatives.

I think most people look for information that confirms their biases.

It's difficult to do, but I think that even when you're screaming to be heard, you still need to take time to listen.

That is what Biden's strength appears to be. And he should play that card every damn day. If he does, he wins in a landslide.

[Yankguy1]

Irrelevant?  No.  If the poll was showing Trump up or even with Biden, you would be saying Trump is a shoo-in.

Well at least you spelled "shoo-in" correctly this time.  And thank you for thinking enough of me to presume to know how I'm thinking. You've presumed wrongly, but it's nice to be considered.  There are 50 state elections. There isn't one national election.

[NeedsAdjustments]

To be fair, "hyper-partisanship" is not exclusive to committed conservatives.

I think most people look for information that confirms their biases.

I know this is a popular thing to say, but its untrue.  This is not a symmetrical phenomena.  Particularly when it comes to media.  Fox and OAN are not balanced opposites on the media spectrum from CNN and the NYTimes.

[Hamilton Samuels]

To be fair, "hyper-partisanship" is not exclusive to committed conservatives.

I think most people look for information that confirms their biases.

I know this is a popular thing to say, but its untrue.  This is not a symmetrical phenomena.  Particularly when it comes to media.  Fox and OAN are not balanced opposites on the media spectrum from CNN and the NYTimes.

So, people who are not conservatives don't look to confirm their biases?

I'm not arguing about the media presentation and who one thinks is more fair with their coverage. I'm discussing people and what they look for. Human beings want their opinions mirrored back to them.
Hell, just listening to sports talk radio would teach you that!

[NeedsAdjustments]

Irrelevant?  No.  If the poll was showing Trump up or even with Biden, you would be saying Trump is a shoo-in.

Well at least you spelled "shoo-in" correctly this time.  And thank you for thinking enough of me to presume to know how I'm thinking. You've presumed wrongly, but it's nice to be considered.  There are 50 state elections. There isn't one national election.

Oh so in our previous discussion we did not point to national level polling as an indicator of a candidate's shoo-in/non-shoo-in status?

My bad.

[NeedsAdjustments]

So, people who are not conservatives don't look to confirm their biases?

I'm not arguing about the media presentation and who one thinks is more fair with their coverage. I'm discussing people and what they look for. Human beings want their opinions mirrored back to them.
Hell, just listening to sports talk radio would teach you that!

Yes, naturally people to some degree seek out information that confirms their "biases."  But if the information that confirms said "bias" is factual, is it still a bias? 

Do I read more liberal opinion writers than conservative?  Absolutely.  But facts are facts, and in political discussions we no longer share them.  There is a vast conservative media landscape that seeks to present "alternative facts" that actually make their consumers less informed.  There are studies that confirm this.  And there is no equivalent to it on the Left.