Projecting 200,000 deaths by October:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html
What an unmitigated disaster. Total American Carnage. And Trump and co truly could not give a shit while they watch the stock market and their own polling.
Disgusting.
The mildly good news is that IHME shifted from being consistently low in their projections to being consistently high in their projections.
Their projection requires an average of 768 deaths per day between now and October 1. They predict a low of 638 per day as of July 24. We're at 747 as of today, down from 1000+ a mere two weeks ago. They see the rate of decline slowing, then building back up - hitting the current rate about September 1 and back up over 1000 two weeks later.
The bad news... (a) Their forecast is already lower than reality, again. Not much, but less than a week since the model the article is about was released it's 6/day low. If the gap continues to grow, that's not good. (b) This is their baseline projection. They could see as few as 171,550 deaths or as many as 269,351. Their low end is not low; if we don't reach at least that figure I'd be surprised. 500/day hits the lower figure by Oct. 1. (c) They're projection has us up over 1,400 deaths per day on October 1, with a range from 580 up to
3300!! Our peak thus far was under 2300.
At the bottom of their model's page is a simple explanation for their ever growing numbers of doom - the change in social distancing that they are observing and then projecting - I'd take a brief gander at that:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-americaThe real problem? The US is in the bottom right corner. (And we have about the same number of tests/million as Italy, and 3/4ths of Spain and the UK. It's not that we are testing more.)
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