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Reports of protests are overblown. A few incidents around the country, but nothing major.

5 (45.5%)

A few major incidents in capitals, but nothing much in DC.

5 (45.5%)

A major incident in DC, but nothing much around the country.

0 (0%)

More than 10 capitals have major upheavals, but nothing much in DC.

0 (0%)

A major incident in DC plus more than 10 capitals with significant upheavals.

1 (9.1%)

More than half the capitals around the country have problems with protesters, but DC is quiet.

0 (0%)

DC has major problems, while more than half the capitals around the country also have considerable trouble with protesters.

0 (0%)

Huge disruption to the day.

0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 9

Voting closed: January 19, 2021, 10:49:21 PM

[bodiddley]

The latest poll, conducted Aug. 31-Sept. 13, finds 56% of Americans disapproving of the job Trump is doing, consistent with his disapproval scores since June.

Views of Trump have also held firm by political party. He continues to enjoy solid support from fellow Republicans, at 92% approval now versus 90% in August, while earning relatively low approval from independents (36% now, 39% in August) and barely any from Democrats (4% now and 5% in August).

https://news.gallup.com/poll/320303/trump-stuck-42-job-approval.aspx

[Hairy Lime]

Though I suspect RedStateJimm is more interested in the removal of Confederate statues, despite those removals being done to change who we honor, not erase history.

Really?

Changing who we honor IS erasing history even history we do not like. But

So Red when the people of Hungary took down all the Stalinist era statues were they erasing history or saying, "this is not who we are"?

[LarryBnDC]

This is really pretty fucked up.



https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-court-orders-dozens-of-palestinians-out-of-jerusalem-homes-to-make-way-for-settlers-1.9157320

[NeedsAdjustments]

I'd hate to burst the self-imposed bubble you've been jerking off in, but I seem to remember Rasmussen predicting the final Gen Election tally within 1% in 2016 while every other major pollster was WAAAAY off. 

Well then you remember wrong.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/polls.html

This is your cue to double down

Sure, I'll take that cue, as there is nothing in that link that is surprising to me, nor does it contradict what I said.  Poll averages were about a point off the final tally.  While Rasmussen happened to get the final percentage of the overall vote right, it isn't because it was some kind of outlier, with other polling being way off.  Just isn't the case. 

And certainly does not make the case that Rasmussen is so reliably on-point that it is worth using its polls exclusively while ignoring the others.

Yesterday's Trump approvals:

Gallup 42% Approve, 56 % Disapprove
Reuters  42% Approve, 56% Disapprove
Politico/Morning Consult  38% Approve, 60% Disapprove
Economist/YouGove 45% Approve, 54% Disapprove

Rasmussen 52% Approve, 46% Disapprove

Rasmussen was so great in 2016 that it justifies that kind of outlier?  No.  Thats a myth, often repeated here by kiidcarter8, despite it being pointed out to him that there is no evidence to support it.

And for more recent evidence, look at 2018, when Rasmussen not only failed to predict the Blue Wave, they had Republicans up:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

Unquestionably the worst performing poll that year.  Personally, I think their polls are garbage.  If you wan't to include them as part of an average of other polling, ok, suit yourself. 

But if you are using their polls to the exclusion of all others, you are doing so because you aren't actually interested in knowing what is going on, but looking for info that makes you feel good.

[kiidcarter8]

Needs

Methodology for Rasmussen

For tracking surveys such as the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, the automated technology ensures that every respondent hears exactly the same question, from the exact same voice, asked with the exact same inflection every single time.



https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us/methodology


https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_scott_rasmussen/comparing_approval_ratings_from_different_polling_firms

[NeedsAdjustments]

Needs

Methodology for Rasmussen

For tracking surveys such as the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, the automated technology ensures that every respondent hears exactly the same question, from the exact same voice, asked with the exact same inflection every single time.



https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us/methodology

Its funny that you think this is a relevant retort. 

Their polling was garbage in 2018, off by almost 10 points.  And they have been consistently off on Trump polling now.

Put simply, If Trump really had 52% approval, we wouldn't be seeing state level polling that puts North Carolina and Georgia in play.

[kiidcarter8]

The new survey finds Trump with 80% support among Republicans and a nine-point lead among voters not affiliated with either major party. Biden has 80% of the Democrat vote.

[NeedsAdjustments]

The new survey finds Trump with 80% support among Republicans and a nine-point lead among voters not affiliated with either major party. Biden has 80% of the Democrat vote.

Led by the nose.

[kiidcarter8]

But if you are using their polls to the exclusion of all others, you are doing so because you aren't actually interested in knowing what is going on, but looking for info that makes you feel good.



As they point out over at Rasmussen, DIRECTION OF THE POLLING is what is important

Different methodologies explain differences in hard numbers (and pollsters need to live with their eventual misses) but if all polls are better for Trump today than last week/month, that is telling.

So, REALPOLITICS is down to 6.2?  Where had it been?

They are at 49.3 for Biden, averaged out?  Hadn't you just touted that they have been above 50% for so long?  Again - telling.  Joe is just not impressing those on the fence.

[NeedsAdjustments]

As they point out over at Rasmussen, DIRECTION OF THE POLLING is what is important

We should listen to Rasmussen when they tell us why Rasmussen polling is relevant despite Rasmussen polling being consistently wrong.

Led by the nose.

[NeedsAdjustments]

So, REALPOLITICS is down to 6.2?  Where had it been?

Real Clear Politics uses Rasmussen't polling as part of their average.  So when Rasmussen releases a poll that has Trump up by one, Biden's average lead is going to go down.  This is like the eighth time the concept of an "average" has been explained to you.

No other poll has shown significant improvement in Trump's standing, while the averages are about the same as they have been since early August.  And yes Joe has continued to get 50% or better in most recent polling.

[NeedsAdjustments]

After Trump questioned the effectiveness of masks on ABC, his press secretary, Kayleigh McEnany, told reporters on Wednesday that the President has "always supported mask-wearing."

These people truly have zero shame.

[Yankguy1]

For somebody who spends a lot of time discussing polling (okay a lot of time discussing one poll) it's amazing how little Kid appears to know about polling.

[kiidcarter8]

So, REALPOLITICS is down to 6.2?  Where had it been?

Real Clear Politics uses Rasmussen't polling as part of their average.  So when Rasmussen releases a poll that has Trump up by one, Biden's average lead is going to go down.  This is like the eighth time the concept of an "average" has been explained to you.

No other poll has shown significant improvement in Trump's standing, while the averages are about the same as they have been since early August.  And yes Joe has continued to get 50% or better in most recent polling.

RCP just went from 6.2 to 5.8

[NeedsAdjustments]

So, REALPOLITICS is down to 6.2?  Where had it been?

Real Clear Politics uses Rasmussen't polling as part of their average.  So when Rasmussen releases a poll that has Trump up by one, Biden's average lead is going to go down.  This is like the eighth time the concept of an "average" has been explained to you.

No other poll has shown significant improvement in Trump's standing, while the averages are about the same as they have been since early August.  And yes Joe has continued to get 50% or better in most recent polling.

RCP just went from 6.2 to 5.8

LOL.