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Reports of protests are overblown. A few incidents around the country, but nothing major.

5 (45.5%)

A few major incidents in capitals, but nothing much in DC.

5 (45.5%)

A major incident in DC, but nothing much around the country.

0 (0%)

More than 10 capitals have major upheavals, but nothing much in DC.

0 (0%)

A major incident in DC plus more than 10 capitals with significant upheavals.

1 (9.1%)

More than half the capitals around the country have problems with protesters, but DC is quiet.

0 (0%)

DC has major problems, while more than half the capitals around the country also have considerable trouble with protesters.

0 (0%)

Huge disruption to the day.

0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 9

Voting closed: January 19, 2021, 10:49:21 PM

[kiidcarter8]

Trump and his people never saw an agreement that they wouldn't break if they felt like it.

Before their Michigan rally (two days before the announcement of Trump's being covid-positive), they signed an agreement with their host city to keep it to 250 people.

When it blew past that, the city notified the campaign it was in violation and requested that the campaign fixt that.

They got no response and the campaign did nothing. Ultimately, it was estimated there were 2,500 people there.

Business as usual for Trump and is team.

The "law and order" president is full of shit.

Stopp..........

[josh]

The New York City Police Department said Sunday that an officer was suspended without pay after being recorded on video apparently using his squad car speaker to say "Trump 2020” and endorse the president’s reelection bid.


My guess is he gets the pay restored.. quietly, of course

Because you, too, believe that "law and order" only applies to folks opposed to Trump.

Yes, we know.

[josh]

Trump and his people never saw an agreement that they wouldn't break if they felt like it.

Before their Michigan rally (two days before the announcement of Trump's being covid-positive), they signed an agreement with their host city to keep it to 250 people.

When it blew past that, the city notified the campaign it was in violation and requested that the campaign fixt that.

They got no response and the campaign did nothing. Ultimately, it was estimated there were 2,500 people there.

Business as usual for Trump and is team.

The "law and order" president is full of shit.

Stopp..........

That's what the Trump campaign was told to do, but they refused.

You've been told to stop trolling, but you refuse, too.

[kiidcarter8]

https://www.investors.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Poll_110816_alldays.jpg


So....

Clinton led by 4 on 10/29, trailed by 2 on election day per IBD  and subsequently lost.

So be careful.....

[facilitatorn]

Trump is using the tail end of his campaign to admit to the press and the superspreader crowds he gathers that he has spent the last year of his administration sitting in the corner sucking his thumb. He stands at the podium openly calling out “mommy, mommy, take me home!” to his dead mother.

Rarely has a nation done so much to provide therapy for one man.

[josh]

https://www.investors.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Poll_110816_alldays.jpg


So....

Clinton led by 4 on 10/29, trailed by 2 on election day per IBD  and subsequently lost.

So be careful.....

(a) Yes, their final "-2" was wrong. She finished roughly +3% in popular vote, which is what polls are estimating. She lost, but the IBD/TIPP poll was 5% wrong.

(b) If there were such a 6% shift this year, equally across the country, Biden wins.

(c) Note that in 2016, Trump on Oct. 29th had 41% of the vote. He got all the way up to 45% of the vote. Clinton had 45% and dropped to 43%. Biden is over 50% and would drop to 49.6% in the four-way.

(d) Roughly 14% were voting for others or unsure on the 29th. By election day, that had shrunk, with much of it shifting to Trump at the end. This year, the numbers are 10% lower, at roughly 4% - and they are breaking for Biden.

So, sure. "be careful," as if what I do to be or not be careful makes a shred of difference.

But you might try getting your faux-analytical head out of your Trump-stained ass.

I know the election is not in the bag. But I know that it will take more than a Comey letter and some misogyny to change this election's likely result.

[josh]

https://www.unionleader.com/opinion/editorials/our-choice-is-joe-biden/article_e2053388-cc66-59f4-9e7f-8e01a1ea11df.html

First time they've endorsed a Democrat for president in 100 years!

Our choice is Joe Biden*

Mr. Trump rightly points out that the COVID-19 crisis isn’t his fault, but a true leader must own any situation that happens on their watch. We may be turning a corner with this virus, but the corner we turned is down a dark alley of record infections and deaths. Mr. Trump is a self-proclaimed expert on a wide variety of topics, but when pushed on basic topics he doesn’t want to discuss, he very quickly feigns ignorance.

vs.

Building this country up sits squarely within the skill set of Joseph Biden. We have found Mr. Biden to be a caring, compassionate and professional public servant. He has repeatedly expressed his desire to be a president for all of America, and we take him at his word. Joe Biden may not be the president we want, but in 2020 he is the president we desperately need. He will be a president to bring people together and right the ship of state.

[Kam]

Votes are already in.  Polling doesn’t matter anymore.  Stop posting polls.

[facilitatorn]

Lewindowski On MTP has staked trump’s entire re-election hopes on Florida.

[barton]

The only high level certainty I have is that "tucking in his shirt" will have entered the lexicon of political prevarication. 

[josh]

Votes are already in.  Polling doesn’t matter anymore.  Stop posting polls.

Less than half the votes are in and many of the polls include info about the votes in or about who is left to vote in various places.

If we got no posts from the outliars at Rasmussen, that would be fine. The IBD/TIPP posts are interesting, overall.

[josh]

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/10/25/trump-campaign-maine-crowd-no-mask-reiner-nr-vpx.cnn

No mask + close proximity equals superspreader event.

Which illustrates how Trump denies science.

[facilitatorn]

The only high level certainty I have is that "tucking in his shirt" will have entered the lexicon of political prevarication.

It has a place in those annals as prime as the one reserved for “this Abraham Lincoln over here” in the annals of labeling your loser opposition candidate.

[josh]

About that Sudan-Israel deal...

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/24/sudans-political-parties-reject-israeli-normalisation-deal

Sudan's government may not have the authority to sign it.

[josh]

The 2016 campaign, on the other hand, was in great flux at this time. Among a bunch of factors, the James Comey letter "investigating emails on Anthony Weiner's laptop that were potentially related to a probe of Hillary Clinton's use of a private server" had just been published by this point in the 2016 campaign. No such bombshells of that magnitude have come out this year.

Clinton's advantage was down to only about 4 points in the national average 9 days from Election Day 2016. Her advantage had been as high as 7 points with about 21 days to go. Clinton's 45% vote share was low enough that it left Trump with a lot of room in the final week of the campaign to corral voters who favored neither candidate at this point.

All Biden really needs to do right now to win is hold onto the voters that he has.

But the differences go beyond the national horse race polls. An ABC News/Ipsos poll taken after the final debate between Biden and Trump and published on Sunday found that Trump's net favorability (favorable - unfavorable) rating is a very weak -22 points.

The fact that Trump has a deeply negative net favorability rating is nothing new. It's been the norm during his presidency and was true during his 2016 bid for the White House as well.

The more interesting nugget in the poll is that Biden's net favorability was +1 point. A positive net favorability rating is the norm for Biden these days.

Clinton, however, had almost universally negative net favorability ratings in the final month and nine days of the 2016 election. That is, she was more disliked than liked.

To pull off a win in 2016, Clinton had to win over voters who disliked both Trump and her. Clinton ended up losing the 18% of the electorate who had an unfavorable view of Trump and her by 17 points.

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