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Reports of protests are overblown. A few incidents around the country, but nothing major.

5 (45.5%)

A few major incidents in capitals, but nothing much in DC.

5 (45.5%)

A major incident in DC, but nothing much around the country.

0 (0%)

More than 10 capitals have major upheavals, but nothing much in DC.

0 (0%)

A major incident in DC plus more than 10 capitals with significant upheavals.

1 (9.1%)

More than half the capitals around the country have problems with protesters, but DC is quiet.

0 (0%)

DC has major problems, while more than half the capitals around the country also have considerable trouble with protesters.

0 (0%)

Huge disruption to the day.

0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 9

Voting closed: January 19, 2021, 10:49:21 PM

[josh]

MSNBC still had Biden as locked-in winner of Michigan's 16 electorals

Real Clear puts it back in tossup.

Biden would still need to win at least 2 other tossups, with PA - to get over the hump

Of course they do. They cook their books - like dropping the poll that finished on 10/30, while keeping the one that finished on 10/29. But even so:
319   Biden/Harris vs. Trump/Pence   219 according to RCP.

[luee]

Sent it by mail weeks ago, I take c-19 seriously.

[facilitatorn]

I also think Trump wins Texas by at least the combined 400K votes he beat Clinton, Stein and Johnson by, when you combine their totals.



Pay better attention

There is no upside for anyone paying attention to what you think.

[LarryBnDC]

Are any of you voting in person tomorrow?

Please report back your experience.

Not I.

We dropped off our ballots on Saturday.

[bambu.]

US cities being boarded up.
Seems riots/violence expected no matter who wins.
The wise will have stocked up on everything and will be staying home indoors.
Good idea to never tell anyone for whom you vote.

[josh]

Texas


If Texas voters adhere to their party affiliations, the early voting there could indicate that President Trump is on track to meet or exceed his 9 point win over Hillary Clinton in 2016, meaning the polls are understating support for Trump by an average of about 7%. If that does end up being the case, it could mean two things: political polling has gotten worse since 2016; and Texas isn’t turning blue anytime soon.

Kid cites a conservative Republican to convince us of his Texas position.

He writes as if Texas registrations are party-based, but they are not. There is no record of how many members of each party there are in Texas.

In other words, he is lying through his fingers.

He'd fit in right well with you, Kid, and Ward!

[kiidcarter8]

I don't think there is more than a smidgen of a chance Trump loses any of the states I have him winning to get to 258

If you want to claim a 280-258 win for Biden I won't quibble with you.

[josh]

Do you know of any reason or see any indication, or anecdotal event, that might lead voters this year to not vote their party affiliation?


I think there are quite a few crossover voters this year - going both ways

I also think Trump wins Texas by at least the combined 400K votes he beat Clinton, Stein and Johnson by, when you combine their totals.

And you "think" this because?

Scroll back

Then add this

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_biden-6818.html#polls

This, too, supports the notion that Trump might win Texas:
https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/texas/

But not by 9 points or 6 points - and within the margin of error.

The recent COVID issues in Texas may be affecting how the late voters feel.

And if Texas is within the range that RCP and 270 think or even 100% greater a loss than that, Trump is in for a long couple days.

[Kam]

My PA friends are planning to vote in-person.  She has a conceal-carry permit and will be carrying it because she thinks "anything can happen".  He will be there supporting her right to bear arms while trying not to get caught in the crossfire.

[josh]

Are any of you voting in person tomorrow?

Please report back your experience.

I'll be outside to poll, promoting the Ranked Choice Voting measure in MA.

[josh]

Hanen is known as a very conservative judge.


Your concern should be with the next step - though of course the 177K votes won't matter anyway.

I have no concern with the next stage - I doubt the GOP even appeals, Kid, because standing is a pretty tough position to overturn. And given that all that would happen is they would disagree and send it back down for a rehearing, whereupon Hanen would turn it down on merits, it isn't going to make a difference.

As you have said.

p.s. 127,000, not 177,000.

[josh]

I don't think there is more than a smidgen of a chance Trump loses any of the states I have him winning to get to 258

If you want to claim a 280-258 win for Biden I won't quibble with you.

Kid, you never think there is a chance you are wrong about this shit.

You may be wrong, but you're always certain!

I'll take a 280-258 win. My guess is that 290 is more likely than 280, adding in AZ and losing ME-2, and 291 likelier still. I think there is more than a small chance of NC or GA going blue this election. But we'll see.

[josh]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/01/opinions/puerto-rican-vote-florida-trump-election-reina/index.html

While rallying in Florida last month, President Donald Trump made what some may consider an unwonted call to Puerto Ricans. "You better vote for me, Puerto Rico," he vaunted, after falsely claiming he's "the best thing that ever happened to Puerto Rico." Although Puerto Ricans on the island, a US territory since 1898, cannot vote, there are over 850,000 of them who can in the Sunshine State. Boricuas hold 27% of the state's share of the Latino electorate in the 2020 election -- only second to Cubans who represent 29%. And the Trump campaign is very aware.

[facilitatorn]

Trump is floating in the 180-220 EV range. It’s much more support than his tenure merits. He’ll do that well because some voters, like New Jersey’s state idiot, are through great effort studiously misinformed about very nearly everything.

[barton]

My PA friends are planning to vote in-person.  She has a conceal-carry permit and will be carrying it because she thinks "anything can happen".  He will be there supporting her right to bear arms while trying not to get caught in the crossfire.

If it warms up,  that will support the right to bare arms.   

In case anyone has butterflies over the election,  here's a pleasant distraction....

Whale catches Train

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54780430