Yesterday, the US set a new high for 7-day average daily deaths from COVIID-19, at 2,263 (according to Worldometers), eclipsing the April 21st record of 2,259/day.
If we stayed at that level for the remainder of the year, we would get more than 124,000 more deaths before February 1st, putting us up over 400,000 for 2020.
Unfortunately, it is very unlikely to remain at that level, even with the certain drops that we will get around Christmas Day and Feb 1.
We've gone up by more than 1500 deaths a day since the same length of days ago as New Years is from now, which if mirrored going up would be about 3800 a day - averaging that and current yields 3,000+ per day, 165,000 more deaths, and 450,000+ total by the end of January.
But... the time from Oct. 12th to Nov. 7th was pretty flat. If our rate of deaths increases at the same rate as it has for the last 30 days, we would be looking at well over 8,000 dying per day by the end of December and a rate of about 5,000 per day on average for the next 55 days (today included), nearly doubling the current total deaths, for 550,000+ deaths by February 1.
I fear that latter figure. I don't think it will get there, but 6 months ago, I would not have thought we would hit anywhere near 300,000 by the end of the year, either, and it is very clearly headed at least that far and fast.