Western Hemisphere threat assessment excerpted below...
https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/2019-ATA-SFR---SSCI.pdfSTATEMENT FOR THE RECORD
WORLDWIDE THREAT ASSESSMENT of the
US INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY
January 29, 2019
THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE
Flagging economies, migration flows, corruption, narcotics trafficking, and anti-US autocrats will present continuing challenges to US interests, as US adversaries and strategic competitors seek greater influence in the region. The hemisphere will see several presidential elections this year, including in Argentina,
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Bolivia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Panama, and Uruguay, providing opportunities for outside candidates to exploit public frustration with stagnant economic growth, high crime, and corruption. China and Russia will pursue efforts to gain economic and security influence in the region.
Mexico
Newly inaugurated Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador almost certainly will focus on meeting steep public expectations for improvements on anticorruption and security following his landslide electoral victory in July. He is likely to pursue mostly practical approaches to US cooperation that complement his ambitious domestic agenda. Lopez Obrador has promised to reduce violence, in part by addressing socioeconomic causes, but he has publicly conceded that Mexico’s military must keep up its public security role in the near term, despite his initial preference to end it. Lopez Obrador has supported the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade deal, probably hoping to reduce trade-related uncertainty, allowing him to focus on his domestic economic agenda. However, Mexico’s $1.15 trillion economy remains vulnerable to investor uncertainty that could weaken the export sector and slow economic growth, which was just 2 percent in 2017. Declining oil revenue will limit the Mexican Government’s ability to fund Lopez Obrador’s ambitious social programs and infrastructure projects.
Central America
We assess that high crime rates and weak job markets will spur additional US-bound migrants from the Northern Triangle—El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras—while a political crackdown in Nicaragua dims that country’s already bleak economic outlook. Illicit migration northward from the region shows no signs of abating, despite increased messaging by governments to dissuade potential migrants and stepped-up immigration enforcement by Mexico. Many migrants apparently perceive that traveling in caravans on the journey north affords a certain level of security, and the decision to do so appears to result from a combination of individual motivation, encouragement from social media postings, and politically motivated efforts by some individuals and organizations.
Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega’s refusal to heed calls for negotiation amid his political crackdown, which has left more than 300 people dead and contributed to allegations of human rights abuses, threatens to deepen a recession in one of the region’s weakest economies.
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Venezuela
Although the regime of Nicolas Maduro will continue to try to maintain power, he is facing persistent opposition. Falling oil production, economic mismanagement, and legal challenges almost certainly will compound the worsening economic pressure on the country. Living standards have collapsed, and hyperinflation and shortages in basic goods have gripped the country. Since 2014, the UN International Organization for Migration estimates that 2-3 million Venezuelans have left the country. Maduro continues to crack down on the political and military opposition after a failed assassination attempt against him in August 2018 and disrupted coup plots in the past 12 months, but the opposition has shown resilience, as indicated by its challenge to Maduro’s rule emerging in late January 2019.
Colombia
Colombian President Ivan Duque faces a fraying
peace accord with the former Revolutionary Armed
Forces of Colombia (FARC) while he is working to
stem violence in Colombia’s rural departments,
carry out his coca eradication ambitions, and
manage growing tensions with Caracas. Duque has
ordered increased security operations to curb common crime, threats from Colombia’s insurgent and criminal groups, and address coca cultivation and trafficking. Coca cultivation in Colombia was at a record 209,000 hectares in 2017, and crop substitution and eradication programs face coordination challenges and local resistance.
Cuba
Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel will adhere to former President Raul Castro’s blueprint for institutionalizing one-party rule and socialism in Cuba through constitutional reforms. Diaz-Canel has acknowledged that Raul Castro, who still commands the ruling Communist Party, remains the dominant voice on public policy.
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