Some teams I toyed with putting in my Top 11 but did not: Texas A&M is showing up on a lot of Top 10, but I am skeptical. Mond was the world for their offense for a long time, and they are also replacing the bulk of their line. Our Lady of the Perpetual Tie is replacing a book with the sound of one hand clapping, along with eventual NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year JOK. More importantly, tough schedule for a team that I think gets consistently overrated. Meatchicken… well, fuck them. They are not rated as if they have gotten over Mount OSU until they actually do it. They look to be at best the third best team in the Big However Many East. LSU looked like their National Championship was the product of the right QB in the right system. They may well be Top 10 eventually, but right now I am skeptical. I almost put University of California* in, but I keep expecting more of them than they deliver and there is just something about the Helton era that makes me say, naw, not fooling me this time. Maybe when they join the Big However Many West it will get better. I think the Pennsylvania State University is the second best team in the Big However Many East, but I do not have enough confidence in the Big Red Dog or the O Line. While Cincinnati is kind of a sexy pick for a possible Top 10, they have two tough Power (soon to be) 4 teams on their schedule. They could be the best Gang of (soon to be) 6 team, but that even one loss will knock them out of consideration, given the inherently weak schedule. I had Florida in and out like a yoyo, but they are replacing their QB, have defensive issues against the pass, and, well, the schedule maker put both LSU and Alabama on their cross conference schedule. Indiana… remains Indiana, and Texas, even replacing the head coach, is in “shame on me” territory until they prove otherwise.
11. North Carolina
They have the potential #1 pick in the NFL draft in Sam Howell, and return all five of their starters on the O Line – which was shaky a bit last year, but are a year better. While running back remains a concern, it is a repeat of some of the defensive breakdowns from last year that is more troubling. Schedule wise, the South Atlantic League remains atop heavy league, and UNC avoids ClemSIN . The only daunting road game is Our Lady of the Perpetual Tie, and the only even interesting OOC game they have is against Wake Forrest, a concept I am still trying to get my head around. I doubt that they will not be, thanks to the schedule and Howell, “Thurston” for a Coastal Division title.
10. the Louisiana State University
So I wrote the intro before I finalized this Top 11. My qualms still reman, but of all the teams that I had issues putting in, I had the least issues with them. I still wonder whether their National Championship team was a perfect storm, but it came down to them or Florida for this spot, and in the end I went with the team I think will win that game. I think they are settled on a QB, and I think they have too much talent to be as inconsistent – and as poor running the ball – as they were last year. But the real issue the team had in its post-championship collapse was the defense. Getting rid of Faux Pelini should help. Maybe I am thinking too much about tradition, but I do trust that LSU’s defense will live up to its past rep. At the very least, they take away a portion of the field in the passing game with Stingley.
9. Iowa State
Veteran returning quarterback who if not great is at least purdy good, a veteran line and a really good running back. They also return most of a defense that lead the Pure Prairie League against the run. Though given the league dynamic, being good against the run kind of misses the point. Still, I think that their secondary should be able to carry its weight against some advanced passing attacks. To me, the key is those first two interstate games. NIU may be FCS, but they are a high quality cupcake that ISU could choke on, and Iowa is a real good Big However Many West team. I am putting my money on their balanced offense.
8. Oregon
Someone is winning the PAWCP, right? They could always catch the napping – or unsettled – but it is in Columbus. Not a whole lot of wiggle room with that game on their schedule. I am not sure who their QB will be, but they have the other offensive skill position players to allow whoever it is to succeed. The line is experienced, if not top end. Defensively, they have one of the two or three top returning defensive player in Thibodeaux - shouldn’t he be at LSU? – and some strong line backers. They will need to run the table, and they have the ever tough Stoney Brook Brookstoners in a post-the trap game.
7. Wisconsin
Maybe this is reflexive; I usually peg Wisky for the top Big However Many West champ. Last year was a dud, especially with the absence of a stud runner, but I am not sure another top level team got his with the COVID issues quite like Wisconsin. They still have a huge O line, mertz looked good before he got sick, and the receivers who missed the bulk of last year are back. They are also brining back 8 starters from the nation’s best run defense. For some reason, they get all both of their tough cross conference games at home and their only hard OOC game is a neutral field. So, reflexive or not, they should be a one loss regular season team at worst before the traditional steam rolling in the Big However Many Conference championship game and the eventual bowl loss.
6. Georgia
I have had them anywhere from top (functionally) three to out of the rankings. Their offense was better once Daniels seized the QB spot, and I expect them to improve – although it looks like Pickens is out for a big chunk of – perhaps all of – the year. They return most of their O line and their top runners from last year – eventually - so I expect an offensive improvement. Defense has lost some talent, but they should be strong. Thanks to God’s Conference’s policy of scheduling lots of cupcakes and only 8 conference games, they miss out on the top three teams form the West this year. That first game is they key; if they beat ClemSIN they can be a playoff team. But I have them losing to ClemSIN and then, well, losing one more while, well, Clemsoning.
5. Oklahoma
Unlike the next three teams, Oklahoma has a very good returning QB in Rattler, and six other starters return from the Pure Prairie league’s top offense. They also have most of their returning defensive players back, and they had a good, improving defense last year. Schedule wise, except for the for me at least satisfying renewal of one of the great rivalries from my youth, their out of conference schedule are a bunch of non-entities, leaving the two or three better Pure Prairie League teams as their only real issue. I don’t think it will be a problem
4. the
The next three teams are all breaking in new quarterbacks for 2021, all replacing first round picks. the OSU is replacing their 2020 QB with someone who did not throw a pass for tOSU in 2020. No one but Fields did. Not nominal backup C J Stroud, not even on a trick play or fake punt. Yes, the tOSU – like ClemSIN and Alabama - are refitting rather than rebuilding, and there is a load of talent to choose from. I suspect they will figure it out before the Day goes too long, but they open against BHM West contender Minnesota and then Oregon, so there is a potential for an early season misstep. Anyway, whoever the QB (it’s Stroud) is will have stand out wide receivers, including two potential first round draft choices, and what should be a very good line. Running back is a concern; Master Teague is a heads down, hit the assigned hole come hell or high water kind of runner. Defensively, they struggled against the pass, after years of first round draft choices at corner back, their top CB stunk last year, and is gone. Replacing a lot of linebackers, and they still haven’t brought in a Chase Young/Bosa/Bosa kind of pass rusher… well, who the fuck has? Still, I expect them to be strong defensively, and win the Big However Many.
3. ClemSIN
Of the top 3, ClemSIN is bringing in the new QB with the most experience in the form of the world’s worst Scrabble tile set. But when he played, he looked real good, so I will probably have to learn his name. (As an aside, Uiagalelei’s backup – before he got hurt - is named Taisun Phommachanh. Seriously. What the fuck?) Travis Etienne is gone after his seven year career, and unlike QB there is no obvious successor, but my guess is that they will be fine. Good line, Ross is back as a receiver. Defensively, they return 9 starters from a very good defense. They open against Georgia, but they should be a heavy favorite in every other game this year. ClemSIN has missed the playoffs once, in its first year. Even if they lose to Georgia, they will be back.
2. Alabama
Sometimes the obvious answer is the best one. Sure, Alabama lost a ton of top players. They always do, every year. And they still are the only team to play in the CFB Playoffs every year.** I have in the past knocked them down because they were replacing a QB or a star wide receiver or defensive talent, but that is clearly become irrelevant. Mac Jones is gone? Next! Waddle and Smith are gone? Next! Harris is gone? Next! Surtain and Baramore? Next! Fuck it. It is not even worth recapping the changes. I hate them and their year in, year out excellence.
1. Michigan State University
No, I don’t know who our quarterback will be. I am hoping Payton Thorne, if only for the carry over to next year, but I am reading Russo is the likely guy. He throws, historically, a lot of picks, but that was with Temple. He will have better receivers to work with – I think it is the strength of the team. Our running game has been atrocious the last few years, but the addition of Walker and Joiner should be an upgrade. Actually, considering no running back scored a TD for us last year, it would be hard form them NOT to be a serious upgrade. The O Line returns all of its starters, which is the definition of mixed blessing, but I can always hope that the extra year in the system, and the extra year of development, can bring better play. If we can limit turnovers, we could have a successful season. Defensively, there is a lot of returning talent from a really bad defense. I worry most about the line, which may be OK against the run, but doesn’t really have anyone who can apply pressure. Only one D Back had an interception last year, and he’s gone. Last year was a disaster (Predictably, given the circumstances, with Dantonio leaving late in the coaching change cycle, the inability to practice extensively under the new staff for months, the initial cancellation of the season) but Tucker has been recruiting well both from high school and in the portal, so I see an upward trajectory. I see 5 tough games on the schedule (we avoid three of the top West teams) so win one of those, hold serve on the rest, and we can be 8 – 4, 7-5. Baby steps.
* Southern
** I somehow blanked on 2019. Sorry.
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