Well, since the CFB season starts on Saturday, time to roll out my traditional Top 11. It is based off the version I wrote back in August, before conferences started pulling the plug on games and the season. The only real change is downgrading Oklahoma and Texas, both of which I had in the Top 10, and moving PSU out. I was highly skeptical of LSU even before the early season struggles. Anyway.
Highly thought of teams I am do not highly think of and why:
the Pennsylvania State University - Can the PSU replace the as the Big However Many’s top dog? I have my doubts. The Big Red Dog of a QB is a game manager who voids mistakes rather than a top level quarterback, the O Line has potential but gave up an awful lot of sacks and most of PSU’s offense came in three games against putrid defenses. Defensively, they struggled against the pass, despite an elite rush, and their best player is sitting out. They could wind up a Top 10 team, but I think they are a cut below the, and with only playing eight games that leaves them a cut below the top 10.
the Louisiana State University – That is a lot of talent to lose. A. Lot. It may take them some time to gel, and it would not surprise me to see them struggle early in the year. I do not know if they will ever get it entirely together, offensively or defensively.
Our Lady of the Perpetual Tie – What, are they being highly ranked again? They are in an actual conference, playing actual teams for a change. The South Atlantic League is mushy but there are a couple of teams I think have more talent than they do.
Auburn – Bo Nix.
Meatchicken – Because hate.
Pure Prairie League – I think they are out, especially at this point. Okie State may still sneak in, but they have not been impressive overall, and I think both Texas and Oklahoma will beat them. Which leaves the Conference with a bunch of two loss teams.
11. USC
SOMEONE is winning the PAWCP. I got two choices. One of these days USC will live up to my expectations, even if I think they made a mistake in keeping Helton. It is almost like they chose to keep him one more year to see if some former coach might get bored with being a studio host for Fox, or something. I like Slovis, and while I do not now who will get the nod at RB they have a lot of good options. They have some excellent receiving talent, including a guy named Amon-Ra and another named Bru which is something that appeals to me. Worry about the defense, though. It has issues in 2019 and they have a new D Coordinator, which could make the lack of early season games problematic. They actually benefit from the reduced schedule quite a bit – they had a game against Alabama cancelled.
10. Wisconsin.
SOMEONE is winning the West and losing to the in the Big However Many championship game. Why not them?
9. Oregon
SOMEONE is winning the PAWCP. I got two choices. Sure, they underachieved last year with Herbert at the QB, and there is a chance offensively they will slide into the Shough of Despond, but they have at least one stud on the O Line and some excellent skill players around the new QB. Most of their very good defense returns – I am loving the name Kayvon Thibodeaux. Their schedule does not have any real stud games – like USC, they had a game against a Top 5 team COVID out on them. I can see them unbeaten going into the PAWCP championship game against USC. Or losing twice if the offense does not click.
8. Georgia
I like their defense, as always, and they will have a running game. Their quarterback, Stetson Bennet IV, sounds like an attorney for a quarterback, not an actual quarterback. He has White, Cook, and Pickens around him, although the O Line needs to regroup, fast. Most of the Defensive talent returns from a top flight defense. If the offense can catch up to that defense, just a little, they could be special. The only problem: they have already lost to Alabama once, which leaves them zero room for error – and leaves them in the unenviable position of needing to beat Alabama in the God’s Conference Championship game to avoid a second loss. It is not Smart to bet on any Saban assistant beating him. Not Smart at all.
7. Florida
I guess Trask is the top returning QB in God’s Conference. That loss to TAMU will gut them, though. The Gator offense will be better than it has in past years. They need to beat Georgia, but even if they do that one loss means they will have to beat Alabama to make the playoffs.
6. Miami
They cannot stay on the same field as ClemSIN, but then, who in the South Atlantic League can? The senior transfer QB helps, but they still have an iffy run game, with a questionable offensive line. Schedule-wise, they still have some technically ranked team to play in front of them, but I think those teams being ranked are as much a function of them actually playing than their talent.
5. Texas A&M
I write these backwards, so here is where it starts to get sketchy. I have no real feeling about what team is going to wind up, functionally, fourth when the season is over. Some of the teams I had considered here, back before COVID upended everything, now have two, or will eventually have two, losses – Oklahoma, Texas, Georgia, Florida. Given that, my best guess is one of the teams that doesn’t play in the conference championship game – TAMU, Penn State – sneaks in, unless a PAWCP team runs the table. So, while I am not huge on them – hate their QB – TAMU is my placeholder.
4. Alabama
They are not #1 because unlike the two teams ahead of them they are replacing their quarterback. That is pretty much it. Jones will be good enough to lead them to a great season, but I do not know if he can elevate their season. They have the receiving group and running game to make a good quarterback great, but there will come a time in the season where they will need Jones to be the man. Defensively, they have pro level talent everywhere and while it may take some time for it all to jell – the lack of the opening game cupcake buffet could lead to some rough early games – but I think the God’s Conference West may be a little down this year – LSU lost a LOT and it would not surprise me to see them struggle early, Auburn has Bo Nix as a quarterback, the egregious Mike Leach has opted to coach in the only place arguably more God-forsaken than Pullman Washington and I expect him to sink that program, Arkansas and Missississippi remain, respectively Arkansas and Missississippi, so their biggest games are TAMU and Georgia in their first four games. TAMU is merely solid, with an iffy quarterback, and Georgia is good, and should be able to stay with Bama for a half, but after that…. Pencil them into the playoffs.
3. the ©
The Big However Many East is loaded, though the draws a weak cross conference schedule and are fortunate that the trip to PSU is likely to be in front of a sub-Maryland level of attendees, if any one. They have to replace Chase Young on defense, and both corners went in the first round of the NFL draft, but, with apologies to certain God’s Conference teams, the has been CB U for quite a few years now, and while Young’s disruption was unique, the Defensive line has experienced, talented players all across it. The loss I am most worried about, for the, is Dobbins the free elf. Master Teague has a great name but lacks vision, and he was hurt in the spring. They may wind up with Trey Sermon as the lead back. I think Dobbins was underappreciated last year – they were an open wheel rout to him away from plying LSU in the championship game last year. The biggest thing in the’s favor is the returning Quarterback, which is always a plus unless your quarterback is Bo Nix. They also return their best wideout in Olave and a lot of talented kids to work in. I like their chances to run the table in the Big However Many.
2. ClemSIN
They have the best returning talent, including the best quarterback in the country and odds on Heisman favorite (non-MSU Division) in Trevor Lawrence. They also got a break when the underrated Etienne returned. They do have to replace most of the O line, and the loss of Justyn Ross and Tee Higgins is an issue, but SWINEy has been paying, elite highschoolers a lot of money to come to Clemson recruiting a lot of high caliber talent, and with the best QB prospect since Baker Mayfield Andrew Luck throwing to them, the new guys should fit in well. Defenisvely, they lost Isaiah Simmons and 3/4 of their Defensive Backs, but they have probably the best Defensive Coordinator in the country, and as noted earlier, the paid recruits are there. The South Atlantic League is improving, but it is still from 2 through 14 (temporarily 15) behind God’s Conference and the Big Whatever among the major conferences – I expect the typical early season Our Lady of the Perpetual Tie hype, and the typical running headlong into the reality that they have been a first rate second tier program for a while - so ClemSIN should breeze.
1. Eventual 2020-202 National Champion Michigan State University
I have no idea what to expect from Coach Tucker’s first year. I don’t even know who our Quarterback will be, and as a result cannot tell you who the Eventual 2020 Heisman Trophy Winner will be. I am leaning to Theo Day, though Peyton Thorne has some appeal, if only from a name standpoint. If it is Lombardi I may self harm. There is a lot of experience on the O Line – because everyone was hurt at one time or another over the last couple of years, we have 10 OL who have started a game – which I guess is good in a “maybe they can use the experience to improve” sort of way. We do get what I presume is the last of the Allen brothers back. Cool. Elijah Collins is the top returning back, which has me all meh, and we are replacing our top three receivers which normally would be bad but in this case is likely an improvement. The offense has been moribund in the late Dantonio years. Maybe the fresh coaching can bring it back to life.
Defensively, I am concerned about the talent depth in the backfield. The Bangstick is back as a coach – hopefully he can rebuild the no fly zone, although it may take some recruiting cycles to get there. The Linebackers, led by Antjuan Simmons, and the D line, not led by Jacub Panasiuk, should be strong, even with few returning starters. Overall, realistically, 4 or 5 wins (and the plus one) would be a decent year, although there are only two games where I can say with certainty we should win. When have I ever been realistic? What the fuck is the fun in that? Unbeaten and into the CFB playoffs! Woooooo!
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