Ten of the twelve spots in the playoffs are definitely set, and one is probably set. Nine teams, Oregon, the Pennsylvania State, Texas, Georgia, Southern Methodist, Tennessee, the Ohio State, Indiana and Our Lady of the Perpetual Tie are all in regardless of what happens. Two slots will go to Conference champs, definitely the Pure Prairie League champ and probably the Mountain West champ. And there is a pretty set hierarchy as to the order of succession for that last spot. So in reality, only one game has the potential to change the make up of the playoffs. The Conference championship games, in order of importance.Southern Methodist 35, ClemSIN 30This is the only game that can change who gets in. A lot of teams would lose to LaNorris Sellers Cocks this year, so It is the Louisville loss that really sinks ClemSIN beyond the other three loss teams, that and the absence of a big win. The Ponies are playing at a better level right now, but ClemSIN has talent and is the only potential spanner left and this is a spanner in the works kind of year. A ClemSIN win gives the Atlantic [sic] Coast Conference two playoff teams, an SMU win pulls Alabama in its wake. A ClemSIN win would not surprise me, but I will not pick it. ClemSIN has just been too uninspiring all year. Anyway, it is great that this is in the late window. Keep the suspense as long as you can.
the Arizona State 28, the Iowa State 24The Pure Prairie League is a one bid league, and until Memphis beat Tulane stood a real danger of missing out entirely, so this is a winner is in loser out game. ASU is a couple of time zones or a national media magnet coach away from being the best CFB story of the year. ASU top receiver Jordyn Tyson is out for the duration, which is troubling, but ASU still has some weapons, including the Corgi legged Cam Skattebo. Iowa State is unspectacularly solid, as Campbell coached teams routinely are. Neither presents a particularly strong resume, as both have an embarrassing loss and no out of conference ranked wins. ISU has a middling rush defense, giving up over 170 rushing yards a game, which makes this a Skattebo play.
the Boise State 27, University of Nevada at Los Vegas 24This is essentially a win and you are in. The Committee put UNLV in at 20, with Army at 24, so if UNLV beats the 10 slotted Boise team, they should maintain that advantage. Anyway, I think BSU is the better team, though they needed a fourth quarter touchdown to win the last time the two met. UNLV did hold Jeanty to his lowest per rush average all year and they have a pretty good multi headed run game themselves. I think the game will be a good one. Pity its time slot competes with the Atlantic [sic] Coast and Big I Have Given Up Counting games.
Texas 17, Georgia 14This one only affects seeding, both teams are locks. One of the features of the God Apostrophe S Conference this year has been inexplicable losses, but Texas and Georgia both avoided that, albeit barely, twice, for Georgia. Georgia won their earlier meeting fairly comfortably, in large part because they took it to the Texas O Line with seven sacks. My problem with Georgia is they go long stretches where they just do not seem that good, the entire Kentucky game, most of last week, the first half against Alabama. They can beat any team, but they can play their way out of games. I have liked the Texas O line when I have seen them play, so I will chalk the prior game up to it happens and take the reversal of fortune.
Oregon 31, the Pennsylvania State 23This also only affects seeding, since both teams are locks, and the loser is going to be one of the home teams for round one. I actually really like the PSU, even though they lost to the only good team that they played and had some close games against bad opponents. Oregon has been consistent, no shit they are the only unbeaten team but they also have been consistent in how they have beaten teams. Anyway, keep an eye on how PSU does at getting to Gabriel, because I suspect that pressuring him is the path to victory for PSU.
Army 21, Tulane 20In a way, it is a shame Tulane lost to Memphis last week, because this game would be much more of a wild card since the committee had Tulane substantially ahead of UNLV. Now, the only possibility of either team getting in would be a blow out win by Army coupled with, well, a UNLV win and something else happening like Williams having his leg chewed off by an alligator and the committee treating them like they did the FSU last year. Anyway, I look for the magical Army season to continue and for Donald Trump to say their great season is because of him. Make Army Great Again!
So, based on all that, there are some interesting possibilities about how the Committee will operate. From what I have read, there is a possibility that the Committee could drop a team that loses a Conference Championship game, or at least the Committee has not disavowed such a move, but I doubt they will drop them out of the playoffs unless there are exigent circumstances, like a blow out loss or a key injury that puts the entirety of their resume in a different perspective. I doubt they want to incentivize declining to play. But I wonder if that extends to seeding for the loser. After all, with a loss Pennsylvania State becomes a two loss team, with one of the most obvious teams competing for seeding being a team that beat them and a has loss to a shared opponent by what is by necessity either the same spread or better. And how does a three loss Georgia compare to a two loss the Ohio State? It will be interesting, because this is the first year for this, and there is no real precedent to guide us. My best guess, based upon the wins I have picked:1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. SMU
4. the Boise State
5. Our Lady of the Perpetual Tie
6. the Pennsylvania State
7. Georgia
8. the Ohio State
9. Tennessee
10. Indiana
11. Alabama
12. The Arizona State
The primary reason I think the Committee will put Georgia ahead of the OSU is to avoid the rematch. It also has a virtue of separating The P and O SUs, which kind of negates the head to head. Some very interesting match ups, including two God Apostrophe S Teams traveling to play in cold weather sites. Anyway, there are three other Conference championship games, and I really do not have much to say about them.the Jacksonville State 19, Western Kentucky 17But not the good Jacksonville, with beach access. The crappy one.
Louisiana 35, Marshall 21From experience, Lafayette is a great place to get andouille which is a point in its favor, and boudin, which is not. Other than that, I got nothing.
Miami * 27, Ohio 21What, does the MAC still play football? Why? I guess this helps decide which bowl game each team will lose.
There are also the small school playoffs being conducted now. There is the FCS, fka D IA:South Dakota State 35, Montana 10
South Dakota 30, Tarleton State 7
North Dakota State 27, Abilene Christian 14You know who I am upset with? The University of North Dakota, for sucking. An all Dakota FCS final four would have been epic.
A couple DII games:Slippery Rock 27, California ** 18Cool, both teams are coming off one point wins in Round 1 of the D II playoffs. They are about equidistant north and south from what can only be ironically and mockingly referred to as Greater Pittsburgh.
Ferris State 35, Harding 21I had a high school friend who chose to go to Ferris State because quote my parents expect me to go to college
somewhere unquote, which is about right. It is in Big Rapids Michigan and if you Google it, you will be asked if you mean Grand Rapids. While one of the many girls who turned me down for dates, in her case the prom, also went there, Harding is named after a man who until quite recently was the second worst President in US history. *** Easy call.
And of course DIII:Mount Union 42, Carnegie Melon 10The Mount now has a tidy .945 winning percentage against John Carroll who they crushed Saturday. They have a 1.000 winning percentage against Carnegie Melon, which I assume is orange fleshed like the musk varietal, but they last played in 1912, despite being only a two hour drive apart.
Linfield 35, Mary Harding, Mary Harding BaylorMary won the Harding Measuring Contest last week, but this week they run into a Linfield team that held Texas Schismatic to less then 180 yards offense and threw for nearly 400 yards and six touchdowns.
* Ohio
** Eastern. Way, way eastern. Like, Pennsylvania eastern.
*** No it was not. It was named after a Christian minister and educator, not the guy who lost the White House china in a poker game and wrote letters to his mistress, who was allegedly a German spy, in which he referred to his penis as Jerry. **** And, Buchanon is probably still the worst even if he only acquiesced to, rather than fomented, an insurrection.
**** As in
Jerry, you recall Jerry, whose cards I once sent you to Europe, came in while I was pondering your notes in glad reflection, and we talked about it. He was strongly interested, and elated and clung to discussion. He told me to say that you are the best and darlingest in the world, and if he could have but one wish, it would be to be held in your darling embrace and be thrilled by your pink lips that convey the surpassing rapture of human touch and the unspeakable joy of love's surpassing embrace. I cordially agree with all he said. Perhaps it is not important maybe it is not even interesting, but he is devotedly, exclusively, for you.
And the wonderfully appropriate for the season,
Jerry sends Christmas greetings! He would come too, if I might, would he be welcomed cordially?
Poll
