My Top 11:
11. Utah
The PAWCP South is a mess right now, which is an opportunity for a well-constructed, well coached team like Utah. I like their defense; even with a couple departures in the secondary, the core of the group remains, and should improve. Offensively, reasonable health for Huntley should help provide enough offense. They do not have a power conference OOC opponent, and miss out on both Oregon and Stanford. Weak schedule, mucked up South means Utah should be in the PAWCP final.
10. Meatchicken
I think you all know how painful it was for me to even write that much.
9. Texas
Texas may be, for me, the team that replaces the Mark Richt era Georgia Bulldogs as the team I consistently overrate, year in, year out. Ehlinger couldn’t beat Lake Travis, sure, but he is a good college quarterback, and Herman is a fine coach who has been recruiting well. It may take them a while to get the defense sorted out, with only 2 returning starters. Fortunately, defense is irrelevant in the Pure Prairie League. Unfortunately, they have LSU in week 2. They look to be the second best team in the PPL.
8. Louisiana State University
Amazing what a merely competent quarterback can do for an offense. After years of watching stellar defenses lose out on glory because of the inability to achieve mere competence at One. Specific. Position., Just OK Joe Burrow is just OK enough to win any time LSU is not playing a team whose name rhymes with Malabama. They have some holes to fill on Defense, including replacing 2019 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Greedy Williams, but they have a lot of depth to replace anyone with. I just don’t think they get over Sabin Mountain.
7. Oregon
Someone is winning the PAWCP, and missing the Playoffs. I like Washington’s coach, and new portal quarterback, but do not trust them to make good on the defensive losses. Herbert did not impress me when I saw them, albeit a lot of that was against one of the NCAA’s better defenses in the most snooze inducing bowl game of last winter, but he has all the tools, and good running backs and line to lean on. Defensively, they have a good but not great defense, but it should be enough. They have to survive Auburn early, and Washington on the road, to be a CFP team, and I do not think they do that.
6. Alabama
Because I have them losing to Georgia and being the best team not in the CFP. They lost a lof of talent in the draft, sure, but they are strong and deep everywhere. Alabama is one of the handful of “reload” teams in CFB, so even if I did not know who was taking Quinnen Williams’s place (Phidarian Mathis? D J Dale?) I know it is a talent. Yhere is two, three deep talent all through the defense. Taglovailoa is one of the top returning quarterbacks, Najee Harris and Trey Sanders should become the top RB options without missing a beat, and Judge Jeudy gives Taglovailoa the top target in the NCAA. So why do I Have them missing the playoffs? Is it because the odds against Bama/ClemSIN V make me want to keep one out, and it isn’t going to be the only really good team in the South Atlantic League? Is it because I actually hate Nick Satan that much? Is it a hunch? Was Alabama tails? I’ll never tell.
5. Oklahoma
Nine starters return on Defense, which is only kind of good news. They could not stop the running game, and had an even worse pass defense. Part of it is the culture of the Pure Prairie League, where every team tries to out-offense each other, and offense wins championships. But without improvements, they are not going to get through Alaborgia or ClemSIN. Offensively, Hurts has a lot of the skills Murray had, but Murray was a better controlled passer. Still, there is so much talent on the line and receiving that Hurts should be able to come close to the Heisman level performance Oklahoma has had for years.
4. the Ohio State
If Alabama gets in over a conference champ – in addition to the PAWCP – it is here. The Buckeyes have one of their periodic “between home and home” cupcake OOC schedules – the best team they play is Cinci - but there are a handful of games that they could lose on their schedule. The Big Whatever’s West may lack a stellar team, but it is deep and OSU has three of the contenders on its schedule, in addition to whoever wins in the Big Whatever championship game. They get two of the three strong East teams – PSU, MSU – at home, and get to suck the life out of Jim “OSU’s Your Daddy” Harbaugh in Ann Arbor. I do not think the Committee would put a one loss non-champ in against a one loss conference champ, but they sure as hell are willing to put a one loss non-champ in over a two loss champ, particularly if the one loss non champ is Alabama. I am putting some trust in tOSU’s ability to restock after losses, and for New Guy QB to be able to seamlessly integrate into the offense, run by New Guy Head Coach, but the returning talent is strong on both sides of the ball, everywhere.
3. Georgia
Because Jake Fromm, a strong offensive line – one of the nation’s best – a bevy of running backs and a supremely talented defense that only needs to get a little better against the run. The schedule is tough – the OOC includes Our Lady of the Perpetual Tie and while God’s Conference East is still the weaker half, they draw Auburn on the road and TAMU – but doable.
2. ClemSIN
Trevor Lawrence may have Jennifer Lawrence’s hair, but he also has Justin Ross, Travis Etienne and 4/5 of last year’s great o line to support him. Defensively, you’d think losing your entire defensive line to the NFL would indicate that there is some work to be done, but they have experienced depth waiting to come in. The South Atlantic League is weak again, but ClemSIN does have a tough OOC game against TAMU. Still, the toughest league game looks like an early season matchup with the Cuse, and in the old days the chance that they would Clemson away an easy win would always be there. I think they are past that. Only one team has ever repeated since the BCS era started, but there is no reason that they cannot be the second.
1. EVENTUAL 2019-2020 NATIONAL CHAMPION MICHIGAN STATE!
Well, we should have a tough defense that can keep us in every game – 8 returning starters including potential first round choice Kenny Willekes, who heads up one of the better D Lines in the country. Bachie and Scott are also possible All Americans. We can hold any offense in check, for a while at least. I am placing a lot of trust in the idea that the arm injury to Eventual 2019 Heisman Trophy Winner Brian Lewerke, and not regression to the mean, was the reason he was so much worse in 2018 than 2017. We also have to figure out the running back position, and need improvement on the O Line. The schedule has a really tough stretch – OSU, Wisky on the road, PSU at home, and then at Michigan (granted, with two off days – three if you count Illinois – mixed in). But revenge against the Fightin’ Edwards’s in East Lansing highlights a very doable OOC schedule. I am thinking this year is like 2013, where we followed up a 7-6 year that featured some very close losses with a Rose Bowl win.
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