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Poll

When do yo think the MLB regular season will start?

On time
- 1 (33.3%)
Late, but on or before April 15th
- 0 (0%)
April 16th through April 30th
- 0 (0%)
May 1st through May 15th
- 2 (66.7%)
May 16th through May 31st
- 0 (0%)
Jun1st through June 15th
- 0 (0%)
June 16th through June 30th
- 0 (0%)
After June 30th
- 0 (0%)
No Season
- 0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 3

Voting closed: February 13, 2022, 10:41:25 PM


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Author Topic: Major League Baseball  (Read 395972 times)

josh

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Re: Major League Baseball
« Reply #1830 on: April 22, 2019, 02:27:45 PM »
Quote from: kiidcarter8 on April 22, 2019, 02:19:49 PM
System says take Red Sox, Pirates and Astros.

0-4 Chris Sale says take Tigers, and I would have if I were betting against the Red Sox, but I hate betting against the Red Sox!

I also agree with Banks and have not been only taking favorites since this started. But of course the hard part is figuring out which "not favorites" to take.
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The day Richard Nixon failed to answer that subpoena is the day he was subject to impeachment because he took the power from Congress over the impeachment process away from Congress, and he became the judge and jury." ~Lindsey Graham

kiidcarter8

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Re: Major League Baseball
« Reply #1831 on: April 22, 2019, 02:31:39 PM »
Regression and progression to mean for Boyd and Sale, respectively

System pick is based on DET record over last ten.
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bankshot1

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Re: Major League Baseball
« Reply #1832 on: April 22, 2019, 05:01:36 PM »
Quote from: kiidcarter8 on April 22, 2019, 02:13:03 PM
9-13 week using system

Backing off it for this week

Monday 4/22

Royals
Angels
Astros
Rangers

Bank's right - cant just pick faves.

betting money line favorites is stacked against the average bettor, and the payouts reflect the public's tendency to bet favorites

to break even you need to be right about 55-60% of the time.

You anywhere near 60%?

My analysis says you "can" win $ by betting value heavy underdogs, but you need to play a porfolio of them and be willing to bankroll the losers.
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josh

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Re: Major League Baseball
« Reply #1833 on: April 22, 2019, 05:47:36 PM »
Quote from: bankshot1 on April 22, 2019, 05:01:36 PM
Quote from: kiidcarter8 on April 22, 2019, 02:13:03 PM
9-13 week using system

Backing off it for this week

Monday 4/22

Royals
Angels
Astros
Rangers

Bank's right - cant just pick faves.

betting money line favorites is stacked against the average bettor, and the payouts reflect the public's tendency to bet favorites

to break even you need to be right about 55-60% of the time.

You anywhere near 60%?

My analysis says you "can" win $ by betting value heavy underdogs, but you need to play a porfolio of them and be willing to bankroll the losers.

9-13 suggests that he is not near 60% for the week. Down more than $2,000 for the 24 days so far (though Kiiid has not provided the tally in his weekly update, yet) suggests he is not near 60% for the season. Or, rather, not near 60% in wins for the season.

I'm, not, either, though I have not tallied my W-L total, yet, just my $$.
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The day Richard Nixon failed to answer that subpoena is the day he was subject to impeachment because he took the power from Congress over the impeachment process away from Congress, and he became the judge and jury." ~Lindsey Graham

bankshot1

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Re: Major League Baseball
« Reply #1834 on: April 22, 2019, 06:29:44 PM »
The point is to roughly break-even betting mostly favorites (which from eyeballing kid's picks appears to be his strategy) you have to be correct 60% (depending upon the ML) of the time. I'd rather try to win $ by only having to be correct 40-45% by picking underdogs. 
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kiidcarter8

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Re: Major League Baseball
« Reply #1835 on: April 22, 2019, 07:56:35 PM »
Seems it has to be closer to 66% if you are betting solely faves, especially if a portion of them are BIG faves.

This is my first time working with baseball betting models.  Seeing what works and doesnt.  In real world of course parlays and betting with runs comes into play.
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bankshot1

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Re: Major League Baseball
« Reply #1836 on: April 22, 2019, 08:09:09 PM »
Quote from: kiidcarter8 on April 22, 2019, 07:56:35 PM
Seems it has to be closer to 66% if you are betting solely faves, especially if a portion of them are BIG faves.

This is my first time working with baseball betting models.  Seeing what works and doesnt.  In real world of course parlays and betting with runs comes into play.

nope. Historically MLB favrites win around 55-60% of the time.

If you are betting heavy favs -170 and higher, the breakeven is somewhere in the 60-70% neighborhood.

As I recall you were touting some model last year, but were very quiet about giving any details when asked about it.
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kiidcarter8

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Re: Major League Baseball
« Reply #1837 on: April 22, 2019, 08:43:27 PM »
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josh

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Re: Major League Baseball
« Reply #1838 on: April 23, 2019, 01:19:01 AM »
Quote from: josh on April 22, 2019, 01:49:07 PM
Predictions for 4/22:

http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/las-vegas/

Pirates
Brewers
Nationals
Rangers

-400

So much for the system - Pirates and Houston lost. Good thing for the Red Sox that they didn't play!
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The day Richard Nixon failed to answer that subpoena is the day he was subject to impeachment because he took the power from Congress over the impeachment process away from Congress, and he became the judge and jury." ~Lindsey Graham

josh

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Re: Major League Baseball
« Reply #1839 on: April 23, 2019, 01:20:29 AM »
Quote from: kiidcarter8 on April 22, 2019, 02:13:03 PM
9-13 week using system

Backing off it for this week

Monday 4/22

Royals
Angels
Astros
Rangers

Bank's right - cant just pick faves.

You've still got one game to go - you might not go 0-4, too, yet.

ETA: Chapman blows the save in the bottom of the 12th after hitting the 8th batter, a .111 hitter. You live to the 13th! 2am here. I can manage another inning or two, right?

ETAA: Bottom of the 14th, the Angels bring up a pitcher to pinch hit for their pitcher. He struck out. The winning run got on base on an error following a strikeout, when Lucroy soft tossed the ball over the first baseman. We're both 0-4 to start the week, Kiiid, despite your backing off the system.
« Last Edit: April 23, 2019, 02:47:34 AM by josh »
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The day Richard Nixon failed to answer that subpoena is the day he was subject to impeachment because he took the power from Congress over the impeachment process away from Congress, and he became the judge and jury." ~Lindsey Graham

kiidcarter8

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Re: Major League Baseball
« Reply #1840 on: April 23, 2019, 09:23:07 AM »
System - 0-2

Me - 0-4

http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/las-vegas/

4/23

System picks Red Sox Game 1 - and if they win - again in Game 2.

Also - Cubs, Rockies, Indians

My picks are -

Mets, Brewers, Atlanta, Oakland, Minnesota

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bankshot1

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Re: Major League Baseball
« Reply #1841 on: April 23, 2019, 12:07:53 PM »
kid

lets try this again.

Can you describe the system and how it selects winners? What variables does it primarily target?

How does it differ from your insights?
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kiidcarter8

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Re: Major League Baseball
« Reply #1842 on: April 23, 2019, 01:35:45 PM »
Sorry, Bank...... had you on Iggy on this computer.  You're off now.

SYSTEM is basically choosing

- all home teams
- hot teams or teams playing cold road teams

Doesnt factor in

- odds
- pitchers

When I pick I like to consider the pitchers - and will now also consider best values (was ignoring that earlier)
For instance - I like Sale today - but what is the value?  Will only pay about 40 bucks, risking 100.  My Minnesota pick today I think is at $127.
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josh

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Re: Major League Baseball
« Reply #1843 on: April 23, 2019, 06:59:34 PM »
Quote from: kiidcarter8 on April 23, 2019, 09:23:07 AM
System - 0-2

Me - 0-4

http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/las-vegas/

4/23

System picks Red Sox Game 1 - and if they win - again in Game 2.

Also - Cubs, Rockies, Indians

My picks are -

Mets, Brewers, Atlanta, Oakland, Minnesota

The system is silly if it doesn't consider pitchers.

But I would pick the Rockies, too.

Rockies
Dodgers
Rays
Astros
Rangers
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The day Richard Nixon failed to answer that subpoena is the day he was subject to impeachment because he took the power from Congress over the impeachment process away from Congress, and he became the judge and jury." ~Lindsey Graham

josh

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Re: Major League Baseball
« Reply #1844 on: April 23, 2019, 10:16:25 PM »
Quote from: josh on April 23, 2019, 06:59:34 PM
Quote from: kiidcarter8 on April 23, 2019, 09:23:07 AM
System - 0-2

Me - 0-4

http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/las-vegas/

4/23

System picks Red Sox Game 1 - and if they win - again in Game 2.

Also - Cubs, Rockies, Indians

My picks are -

Mets, Brewers, Atlanta, Oakland, Minnesota

The system is silly if it doesn't consider pitchers.

But I would pick the Rockies, too.

Rockies  -100
Dodgers -100
Rays     + 54.06
Astros   + 66.67
Rangers -100

- 189.27 for today
- 400.00 yesterday
- 496.60 after Sunday's games
-1085.87 going into Wednesday for me.

I suppose since Kiiid has stopped sharing his numbers, I will update them.

No O-fer for me tonight! (If I win more than one, I will be pleased, but at least the shutout is avoided.)

Looks like you'll have the same record as me for the 2nd night in a row, Kiiid, but score a loss of about $27 fewer dollars.

The system did worse than both of us.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2019, 01:37:08 AM by josh »
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The day Richard Nixon failed to answer that subpoena is the day he was subject to impeachment because he took the power from Congress over the impeachment process away from Congress, and he became the judge and jury." ~Lindsey Graham
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