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Russia will gain eastern Ukraine territories and hold them, as it has Crimea

5 (45.5%)

Russia will temporarily gain eastern Ukraine territories before being forced out of them

2 (18.2%)

Efforts to confront the Russian forces and get them out of Ukraine will lead to Putin's escalating and attacking NATO countries directly with missiles or other destructive measures

0 (0%)

The NATO/World response will be so mild that Putin will go ahead and take the rest of Ukraine

3 (27.3%)

Today Ukraine, tomorrow Moldova and who knows where else

1 (9.1%)

Total Members Voted: 10

Voting closed: March 01, 2022, 01:18:43 PM

[facilitatorn]

If Russia stopped right now in exchange for formalizing Crimea and Ukrainian security via some arrangement outside of NATO, they could call it a win. Every day they keep the fight up there is a growing risk Russia does not get that much of a settlement.

By conservative estimates Russia has lost in those killed, captured, disabled, and deserted at least 25 thousand of their 200 thousand strong fighting force in the region, if that number doubles or triples over the next month or months, not only will they appear weaker, but they will stress their other occupation forces trying to assemble a new Russian empire.

[josh]

If Russia stopped right now in exchange for formalizing Crimea and Ukrainian security via some arrangement outside of NATO, they could call it a win. Every day they keep the fight up there is a growing risk Russia does not get that much of a settlement.

By conservative estimates Russia has lost in those killed, captured, disabled, and deserted at least 25 thousand of their 200 thousand strong fighting force in the region, if that number doubles or triples over the next month or months, not only will they appear weaker, but they will stress their other occupation forces trying to assemble a new Russian empire.

Ukraine is not at this time prepared to cede Crimea. They have already said they are willing to be neutral and to not join NATO.

But Putin rightly is concerned that he (they) won't be able to keep Crimea without an agreement.

What he fails to understand is that there is absolutely no reason for Ukraine to honor such an agreement, even if they were to make one! Contracts signed under duress (such as a gun held to your head) are non-binding in any court that is not rigged.

So, Ukraine could say "okay, you can keep Crimea," and after the troops are gone say "we changed our minds, just like you did when you took it to start with and when you invaded us and when you bombed our civilians and our hospitals."

[LarryBnDC]

If Russia stopped right now in exchange for formalizing Crimea and Ukrainian security via some arrangement outside of NATO, they could call it a win. Every day they keep the fight up there is a growing risk Russia does not get that much of a settlement.

By conservative estimates Russia has lost in those killed, captured, disabled, and deserted at least 25 thousand of their 200 thousand strong fighting force in the region, if that number doubles or triples over the next month or months, not only will they appear weaker, but they will stress their other occupation forces trying to assemble a new Russian empire.

Ukraine is not at this time prepared to cede Crimea. They have already said they are willing to be neutral and to not join NATO.

But Putin rightly is concerned that he (they) won't be able to keep Crimea without an agreement.

What he fails to understand is that there is absolutely no reason for Ukraine to honor such an agreement, even if they were to make one! Contracts signed under duress (such as a gun held to your head) are non-binding in any court that is not rigged.

So, Ukraine could say "okay, you can keep Crimea," and after the troops are gone say "we changed our minds, just like you did when you took it to start with and when you invaded us and when you bombed our civilians and our hospitals."

When a war is in a stalemate it gives openings for negotiation.

The longer this goes on the more the civilians in Ukraine will suffer and the more certain Putin loses power.

[LarryBnDC]

The EU needs to prioritize aid to Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Moldova to cope with refugees pouring out of Ukraine.

[bambu.]

The EU needs to prioritize aid to Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Moldova to cope with refugees pouring out of Ukraine.

The EU needs to get its butt into gear and work out ways
to get all the people out of Ukraine and into their countries ...yesterday, as soon there'll be nothing much worthwhile left in Ukraine.
Bombings are every 10 minutes now.

[josh]

More stupid "you made us do it" bs from Russia. This time they are blaming Japan's reaction to the invasion of Ukraine for why they are going to stop negotiations over the Northern Territory of Japan (Kiril Islands to Russia) - It seems that Russia and Japan have not yet declared peace from World War II!

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/21/asia/russia-halts-japan-war-peace-talks-intl-hnk/index.html

[bambu.]

After what's happened in Ukraine it sure seems that all alliances, pacts, agreements are not worth the paper they're written on, in reality, and were only ever "maybe"s.

The 64 dollar question is:
If Putin/Russia, having basically turned Ukraine into rubble, decides it's time to take Poland and invades it by air, land, and by sea from the North, ...will Biden/US, Boris/UK, and the other NATO countries get into a full blown war with nuke-armed Russia (Putin threatening to use nukes)...or will appeasement still rule?

[facilitatorn]

[facilitatorn]

After what's happened in Ukraine it sure seems that all alliances, pacts, agreements are not worth the paper they're written on, in reality, and were only ever "maybe"s.

The 64 dollar question is:
If Putin/Russia, having basically turned Ukraine into rubble, decides it's time to take Poland and invades it by air, land, and by sea from the North, ...will Biden/US, Boris/UK, and the other NATO countries get into a full blown war with nuke-armed Russia (Putin threatening to use nukes)...or will appeasement still rule?

The 64 dollar question is:
Since all Australians have drowned, been eaten by mice, or been enslaved by the Chinese, where is freaky deaky Bambu actually posting from?

[LarryBnDC]

More stupid "you made us do it" bs from Russia. This time they are blaming Japan's reaction to the invasion of Ukraine for why they are going to stop negotiations over the Northern Territory of Japan (Kiril Islands to Russia) - It seems that Russia and Japan have not yet declared peace from World War II!

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/21/asia/russia-halts-japan-war-peace-talks-intl-hnk/index.html

Russia still salty after Japan kicked their ass in 1905.

[josh]

After what's happened in Ukraine it sure seems that all alliances, pacts, agreements are not worth the paper they're written on, in reality, and were only ever "maybe"s.

How do you come to that conclusion?

And that has always been the case - it took you until Ukraine to figure this out?

The US has never signed a treaty with the Native Americans that it kept.

[bambu.]

After what's happened in Ukraine it sure seems that all alliances, pacts, agreements are not worth the paper they're written on, in reality, and were only ever "maybe"s.

How do you come to that conclusion?

And that has always been the case - it took you until Ukraine to figure this out?

The US has never signed a treaty with the Native Americans that it kept.

I can be a bit slow on the uptake sometimes.

Ukraine ditched in nukes after being promised security?
That promised security has not eventuated.

Yes, promise promises.

[josh]

https://archive.ph/koIbz

30 years ago, this past Feb 5. Ukraine gave up the nuclear missiles.

NYT article.

[facilitatorn]

http://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/3/22/2087501/-Ukraine-update-Ukraine-threatens-to-encircle-Russian-troops-Biden-heads-to-Europe

[bambu.]

https://archive.ph/koIbz

30 years ago, this past Feb 5. Ukraine gave up the nuclear missiles.

NYT article.

"Never trust anyone" - bambu [and no doubt many before him]
"Look after yourself first in this world, son...because nobody else will" - my first boss.

from the link;
When the Soviet Union collapsed, Ukraine turned over thousands of atomic weapons in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the United States and other countries.

Ukraine trusted...now it's getting blown to bits.