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Reports of protests are overblown. A few incidents around the country, but nothing major.

5 (45.5%)

A few major incidents in capitals, but nothing much in DC.

5 (45.5%)

A major incident in DC, but nothing much around the country.

0 (0%)

More than 10 capitals have major upheavals, but nothing much in DC.

0 (0%)

A major incident in DC plus more than 10 capitals with significant upheavals.

1 (9.1%)

More than half the capitals around the country have problems with protesters, but DC is quiet.

0 (0%)

DC has major problems, while more than half the capitals around the country also have considerable trouble with protesters.

0 (0%)

Huge disruption to the day.

0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 9

Voting closed: January 19, 2021, 10:49:21 PM

[Hairy Lime]

At this point, Lyndon Johnson was never going to win reelection, in fact he realized it in a pretty certain way. Jimmy Carter was never going to win reelection.


Wasn't Carter leading most of the way?

There was a big shift in the polls at the end of 1980 to Regan.

[kiidcarter8]

Rich nations care for the old and genetically challenged: that's banging the dinner gong for novel and opportunistic pathogens.   Then add in that our wealth also means we (or a significant percentage of us)  can afford to travel great distances,  go overseas,  most of it in cramped hermetically sealed tubes.   This is why meaningful comparisons of mortality between countries require some similarities in living standards,  mobility, and methods of data gathering by health workers.   I wanted to stop and comment on this,  because it will be something to bear in mind as the popular media continues to bombard us with statistics,  often poorly contextualized.



Been sayin that all along

[kiidcarter8]

Anyway...

The US has now surpassed 100,000 deaths due to Covid-19 (though we know it is likely many more than that.)

Despite that, It is going to be a rough GREAT summer.

Fixed

[Yankguy1]

This is a good analysis of Joe's progressive agenda, for those interested:

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/26/21257648/joe-biden-climate-economy-tax-plans

If he is too middle-of-the-road for you ("uninspired") I don't necessarily disagree, but if your top priority is the removal of Trump, his candidacy is not at cross-purposes with that priority.

The argument is not that he's toov uninspired  and middle-of- the road for me; the argument is that he's too middle-of-the-road for for lots of people whose votes are needed.

[LarryBnDC]

Lyndon Johnson was never going to win reelection. Jimmy Carter was never going to win reelection.

Carter was 8 points up in the polls in October.  Who was saying five months before the election that he had no chance? 

And yeah, naturally Johnson wasn't going to win reelection.  As I said already, its Republicans who should be embarrassed that Trump is on the ballot.

Carter wasn't 8 points up in October.

 Carter was behind but gaining as the hostage release appeared imminent in September... until Bill Casey gummed up shit behind the scenes.

[LarryBnDC]

Sure Trump is more embarrassing, but I find Biden to be a hack and certainly an uninspired choice.  What has Biden ever been right on?  He was for the Iraq War, for full-on globalization, against the Bin Laden raid, a long time corporate shill, especially for the banks, but also for all the mega-corps registered in race-to-the-bottom Delaware.  Family corruption, likely of the sort that wasn't illegal, but certainly unethical.  Biden is well-known for mis-speaking and gaffe prone utterances.  Biden was all-in on the Clinton New Democrat path, making Dems more like Rockefeller Repubs by getting tough on crime, cracking down on welfare and coddling big business.  And Biden is already making noises about being bipartisan and compromising, the mostly failed Obama pathway.

Best thing is to get rid of Trump and hope Biden lasts only one term (or less).

 Christ almighty!

Read the room!

How do you think Biden got here?

Why do you think black people are demanding a BW running mate?

[kiidcarter8]

Trump can't do anything to hurt China

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/21/investing/china-stocks-delist-nasdaq/index.html

[LarryBnDC]

Sure Trump is more embarrassing, but I find Biden to be a hack and certainly an uninspired choice.  What has Biden ever been right on?  He was for the Iraq War, for full-on globalization, against the Bin Laden raid, a long time corporate shill, especially for the banks, but also for all the mega-corps registered in race-to-the-bottom Delaware.  Family corruption, likely of the sort that wasn't illegal, but certainly unethical.  Biden is well-known for mis-speaking and gaffe prone utterances.  Biden was all-in on the Clinton New Democrat path, making Dems more like Rockefeller Repubs by getting tough on crime, cracking down on welfare and coddling big business.  And Biden is already making noises about being bipartisan and compromising, the mostly failed Obama pathway.

Best thing is to get rid of Trump and hope Biden lasts only one term (or less).

Uninspired?

Bluntly, black people pivked Biden because cannot trust white people to do more than bitch about their lack of choice because they didn’t vote in numbers to win.

Democrats always depend on the black vote to win national elections but don’t wanna pay for it
They wanna chase the unicorn of the mythical Midwest white working class voters who vote GOP in droves.

Progressives and young white people had golden opportunities to change society in 2010 and 2014 but did not show up.

Then when they lose white people bitch about low black turnout.

[LarryBnDC]

I think Biden wins this election only with a massive turnout. My embarrassment lies with  a belief that "well he's not Trump" is enough to get that turnout.

So you think Trump should be a shoe-in to lose because he can't get out of his own way, but think it is embarrassing that people will turn out to vote against him...

Sorry, not following.

For what its worth, here is one poll that shows Biden voters more enthusiastic to vote in 2020 than Trump supporters:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/499077-fox-news-poll-biden-leads-trump-by-8-points-nationally

You could argue that what they are really enthusiastic about is voting against Trump, if you like.  But again I don't know how that supports your argument.

I have no problems voting against Trump. I don't believe that enough people feel that way to win the election for Biden. I believe a better candidate would be a shoo-in.

So because you think Trump might win, Democrats should be embarrassed.  Good argument.

I'll leave you with the points I already made:

Biden is in a historically strong position in the polling compared to others who tried to unseat an incumbent (and is arguably in a better position right now than any other Democratic candidate would be)

There is nothing to be embarrassed about in having Biden as a candidate, even if he wasn't your personal preference.

The party that should be embarrassed by Trump is the party that chose him to represent them, and the party that happily sits by and watches our democratic norms be shredded so that he might be reelected.

In terms of electibility maybe you are right at THIS TIME - that Biden wins easier than Sanders or Klobuchar or whoever.  Longtime Joe backers being the reason.

This doesnt mean he will be a better president than they would have.

A potted plant would be a better president than the one we have now,

[LarryBnDC]

This is a good analysis of Joe's progressive agenda, for those interested:

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/26/21257648/joe-biden-climate-economy-tax-plans

If he is too middle-of-the-road for you ("uninspired") I don't necessarily disagree, but if your top priority is the removal of Trump, his candidacy is not at cross-purposes with that priority.

How confident are you that when the third quarter economy blooms and rallies start back up that we are not suddenly back in a dead heat?

Old dead white Republican  people have family and friends and they gonna feel as if those victims were expendable under Trump and they ain’t gonna fall for the GOP trying blame Cuomo for the nursing home disasters.

[LarryBnDC]

I think Biden wins this election only with a massive turnout. My embarrassment lies with  a belief that "well he's not Trump" is enough to get that turnout.

So you think Trump should be a shoe-in to lose because he can't get out of his own way, but think it is embarrassing that people will turn out to vote against him...

Sorry, not following.

For what its worth, here is one poll that shows Biden voters more enthusiastic to vote in 2020 than Trump supporters:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/499077-fox-news-poll-biden-leads-trump-by-8-points-nationally

You could argue that what they are really enthusiastic about is voting against Trump, if you like.  But again I don't know how that supports your argument.

I have no problems voting against Trump. I don't believe that enough people feel that way to win the election for Biden. I believe a better candidate would be a shoo-in.

I have always thought of Biden as the Willy Loman of the national Democratic Party.

Except attention has been paid to VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES affectionately known as Uncle Joe, Wingman to the coolest motherfucker on the planet for 8 years.

It’s not about Biden it’s who we put around him.

Regardless what you think about Democrats I don’t see anyone 8n leadership as venal as ALL the GOP.

[josh]

It's been awhile since Kid has happily updated us with even Rasmussen's numbers.

Democrats should remain embarrassed that there's even a chance that Trump will be re-elected.  He is incapable of getting out of his own way.

Democrats?

How about white people?

Do I get to criticize those black folks (by the color of their skins) that are going to vote for Trump?

When it gets down to a mere 20% of white people, go ahead.

I complained about the 11% of democratic-identifying men who admitted that they want to not see a woman president in their lifetimes.

[josh]

Democrats should remain embarrassed that there's even a chance that Trump will be re-elected.

He is an incumbent.  Of course there is a chance.

Republicans should be embarrassed that he is on the ballot.  In 2016, and now, after they looked the other way from clearly impeachable conduct.

Incumbency does have advantages. At the same time history is replete with incumbents far more competent than Trump who lost AND never had a chance.

This is an odd argument.  Why isn't Trump definitely going to lose 5 months before the election as compared to people we know lost because those elections already happened?

Maybe you could point to polling that shows that Trump is not in a historically perilous position for an incumbent.  Because the polling I see indicates he is.  Which is the only historical comparison that one can make at this point.

At this point, Lyndon Johnson was never going to win reelection, in fact he realized it in a pretty certain way. Jimmy Carter was never going to win reelection.

Carter to this day maintains that had he brought the marines home before the election he'd have won.

I think he's delusional.

[josh]

Lyndon Johnson was never going to win reelection. Jimmy Carter was never going to win reelection.

Carter was 8 points up in the polls in October.  Who was saying five months before the election that he had no chance? 

And yeah, naturally Johnson wasn't going to win reelection.  As I said already, its Republicans who should be embarrassed that Trump is on the ballot.

Carter wasn't 8 points up in October.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/09/27/election_1980-style_115600.html

This disagrees with you, Yank.

[josh]

I think Biden wins this election only with a massive turnout. My embarrassment lies with  a belief that "well he's not Trump" is enough to get that turnout.

So you think Trump should be a shoe-in to lose because he can't get out of his own way, but think it is embarrassing that people will turn out to vote against him...

Sorry, not following.

For what its worth, here is one poll that shows Biden voters more enthusiastic to vote in 2020 than Trump supporters:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/499077-fox-news-poll-biden-leads-trump-by-8-points-nationally

You could argue that what they are really enthusiastic about is voting against Trump, if you like.  But again I don't know how that supports your argument.

I have no problems voting against Trump. I don't believe that enough people feel that way to win the election for Biden. I believe a better candidate would be a shoo-in.

So because you think Trump might win, Democrats should be embarrassed.  Good argument.

I'll leave you with the points I already made:

Biden is in a historically strong position in the polling compared to others who tried to unseat an incumbent (and is arguably in a better position right now than any other Democratic candidate would be)

There is nothing to be embarrassed about in having Biden as a candidate, even if he wasn't your personal preference.

The party that should be embarrassed by Trump is the party that chose him to represent them, and the party that happily sits by and watches our democratic norms be shredded so that he might be reelected.

In terms of electibility maybe you are right at THIS TIME - that Biden wins easier than Sanders or Klobuchar or whoever.  Longtime Joe backers being the reason.

This doesnt mean he will be a better president than they would have.

I agree.

But Viscount Bryce dedicated a chapter to Why Great Men do not Become President in his book on The American Commonwealth.

Also... one must get elected. Failing that, almost nobody has a chance to become a better president.