Per Trump's "Liddle'" Tweet:
There have been two main arguments re: the political effect of impeachment. One camp says that Trump is a historically unpopular President seen as unfit for office and saying that impeaching him will make him more popular is absurd. The other camp says that impeachment doesn't poll well, Democrats will be painted as circumventing the democratic process, and look at all the money the GOP is banking off of this!
I see both arguments. I think I know where I stand on it, but that's not the point. What is missing from this discussion is how Trump himself will react to impeachment, and how that might tip public opinion.
His reaction will certainly be to get more extreme and divisive, brood in the shadows, rail against his perceived enemies in the press and the IC, spout whacky conspiracy theories, and more and more just seem off his rocker. Already, two days into this, he has implied that the whistleblower and those that talked to him should be killed, put in a desultory and unremarked on appearance at the UN Assembly, and posted a series of tweets that even by his standards are batshit.
None of this goes over well with independents. Its exactly the kind of shit that has kept his approval ratings down despite a (once) thriving economy. If Trump pivoted toward the middle and moderated his language he could try to look like a sympathetic figure who has been unfairly attacked. But there is NO WAY he will do this. Just the opposite.
Which is all only one more reason I think impeachment does not carry the political risk some says it does.