Yeah gauging the elusive species that is the LV is so tricky. This poll shows the massive gender gap in registered voters (Roe, misogyny, MSG rally, and so on)...
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4953612-harvard-institute-poll-gender-gap-harris-trump/but it's hard to tell, except in some specific places, how politically activated all these younger women are. Similar lack of clarity with Latinos and how much blowback from the island of garbage routine. One hopes these all translate to motivation towards the polling station.
Then there are reports of half-empty Trump rallies with audience members leaving after just 5 minutes - this could be erosion from the base or just the normal attention span of MAGA cultists. And Nick Fuentes has denounced MAGA as a cult, so that's potential loss, too.
MSG rally was unpleasantly redolent of the infamous German American Bund Nazi rally held there in 1939, and that could motivate those who remember their history or heard a pundit who pointed it out for them.
I may just have to black out news for a couple days. But I won't because I have a penchant for watching through my fingers. And my new hand lotion smells great.