Turnout will be important.
Especially getting Bernie backers to vote for Biden (assuming Biden wins).
I wouldn't take any voting block for granted.
But the focus will be on WI, OH, MI, VA, FLA and secondarily NC, PA.
I haven't looked at an electoral map ina while, but there aren't that many states in play, and the midwest is key, where Trump broke through (by slim margins).
I was very disappointed with the news that Bloomberg has scaled back his plans from his prior commitment.
Bloomberg will dip into his vast fortune to pay for field offices in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, campaign aides said on Thursday. It will be done through some type of independent expenditure committee that will not be able to coordinate with any campaign, though aides are still figuring out the legal details and what the name and budget of the organisation will be.
I don't know why he didn't include New Hampshire - I doubt it's budget!
But his emphasis almost aligns with yours, Bo, missing only VA and OH, while adding AZ to the mix. I think he sees VA as secure for the Dems if they are winning at all and OH as out of reach, compared to AZ. FL and NC have both shown they are within reach, as well.
270towin.com has AZ, WI, PA, NC, and FL as toss-up states, with MI leaning blue, but having gone red last time. I suspect the same factors that made that the default are behind his choices, though my prior thought on NH stands.
NH, NV, MN, and 1 electoral vote in ME are the other leaning blue places, each of which went blue last time. A total of 37 blue places are leaners.
GA, OH, and IA, plus 1 electoral vote in ME are the other leaning red places, each of which went red last time. A total of 41 blue places are leaners.
Besides the toss-up states mentioned above, NE's got 1 congressional district electoral vote in that category. A total of 86 EVs are in the toss-up places. The safe and likely blue places are 210 EVs. The safe and likely red places are 163 EVs.