It looks as if today (4/4) will see the US hit 200,000+ cases (they know of) and tomorrow (4/5) we'll hit 10,000+ deaths. A month before, we were at 12. On March 31st, we were at 4,053 deaths.
I know Kid hates these projections, but... they feel important. OTOH, if you want to skip them, I cannot blame you. They're ugly and I did not even put the really ugly numbers up.
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For the month of March (March 2 through 31), the rate of increase in deaths ran at an average increase of 24% per day, compounded daily. (6*1.25
29). The month of April has started more slowly than that, by what looks like a small amount - 22% intead of 25%, but which delivers a difference of 1.7 million deaths. Still, it needs to slow a lot more for that figure to fall into the window that we've been told:
An average of 12%, which is a very sharp drop from where we've been, would give a figure of ~121,000. 15% brings the deaths to over 268,000.
"Following the guidelines for the next 30 days is a matter of life and death"
“This is going to be one of the roughest 2 or 3 weeks we’ve ever had in our country [...] We’re going to lose thousands of people.”
Projections: 100,000 - 240,000 total deaths in the US from COVID-19 [video segment] (down from 1.5 - 2.2 million deaths without mitigation: social distancing, staying home, washing hands). But if guidelines are followed perfectly by everyone, then the numbers can be lower, or even significantly lower
Assuming full mitigation: peak of 2,214 daily deaths on April 15
We're set to pass that number on Monday or at the latest Tuesday, more than a week ahead of their projected peak. That should tell you how far from peak mitigation we are. Even if we cut the growth rate by more than half, down to 10%, we'll pass that so-called peak sometime on April 9th.
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