An international group of statisticians from CTDS, Northwestern University and the University of Texas have released a paper investigating the predictive performance of the model developed by Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). The IHME model is is used to predict ventilator use, hospital bed requirements and other resourcing for US states response to COVID-19.
The key findings are:
* Over 70 percent of US states had death rates that were inconsistent with IHME predictions
* Ability of IHME model to make accurate predictions decreases with increasing amount of data
* Improved predictive modelling needed for adequate provision of ventilators, PPE, medical staff at a local level
So much for the experts at IHME.
The result has been quite alarming.
Hospitals relying on IHME predictions have shut down elective surgeries thus denying treatments for a variety of procedures that improve the quality of life.
The shut down has not been necessary because the IMHE corona virus predictions have been wrong.
Writing in the New York Times
Dr. Harlan Krumholz, a professor of medicine at Yale and director of the Yale New Haven Hospital Center for Outcomes Research and Evaluation, describes a decline in the demand for medical services:
We canceled elective procedures, though many of those patients never needed hospitalization. We are now providing care at home through telemedicine, but those services are for stable outpatients, not for those who are acutely ill.
What is striking is that many of the emergencies have disappeared. Heart attack and stroke teams, always poised to rush in and save lives, are mostly idle. This is not just at my hospital. My fellow cardiologists have shared with me that their cardiology consultations have shrunk, except those related to Covid-19. In an informal Twitter poll by @angioplastyorg, an online community of cardiologists, almost half of the respondents reported that they are seeing a 40 percent to 60 percent reduction in admissions for heart attacks; about 20 percent reported more than a 60 percent reduction.
The results are not good for patients who suffer through both painful treatable conditions and potentially life threatening emergencies.
Economically the hospitals are forced to layoff personnel.
So here is the non-medical advice from economist Scott Grannis who told the Wall Street Journal
Pray for a speedy re-opening of the economy. .....,
the shutdown will prove to be the most expensive self-inflicted injury in the history of mankind.
Poll
5 (45.5%)