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Reports of protests are overblown. A few incidents around the country, but nothing major.

5 (45.5%)

A few major incidents in capitals, but nothing much in DC.

5 (45.5%)

A major incident in DC, but nothing much around the country.

0 (0%)

More than 10 capitals have major upheavals, but nothing much in DC.

0 (0%)

A major incident in DC plus more than 10 capitals with significant upheavals.

1 (9.1%)

More than half the capitals around the country have problems with protesters, but DC is quiet.

0 (0%)

DC has major problems, while more than half the capitals around the country also have considerable trouble with protesters.

0 (0%)

Huge disruption to the day.

0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 9

Voting closed: January 19, 2021, 10:49:21 PM

[barton]

How long - take a guess - before the Biden RCP lead shrinks to 4+?

And why do you suppose it is shrinking?

Answers only, please.

Polls tighten towards November.   For naive undecideds,  bullshit and scare tactics will always pull some towards the "tough" talker.   Also,  naive voters are often less likely to do factchecking.

Like you,  Sparky.

[NeedsAdjustments]

National polling at +7 for Biden since the start of August, going +1/-1 from there since then.  If there has been any real tightening in the race it has been slight, at best.  And there is state polling that is moving in the opposite direction.

If kiidcarter8 wanted to ask an intelligent question about the polling trends, he might ask why the damaging revelations re: Trump's crude dismissal of our nation's Troops or his lying about the threat of COVID have not taken a bite out of his support.

My answer to that would be that Trump supporters already knew the man they were supporting.  They already know he doesn't look out for the interests of the country, but support him because they think he is looking out for their interests.  Its a cult of people who see in Trump a defender against changing demographics, of the vision of this country that they want to see.  So there isn't anything left to learn about the guy, however disgusting, that will shake their support of him.

Are there enough of those deplorables to win the election for him?  I don't think so.  I don't think Trump thinks so either.  Which is why he is doing everything he can to suppress Democratic turnout, and cast doubt on the results. 

[kiidcarter8]

57-30 on "patriotic education"


https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/lifestyle/education/most_agree_with_trump_on_need_for_patriotic_education

[kiidcarter8]

We got more brothers this year


Interestingly, 22 percent of surveyed blacks said they are voting for Trump. In 2016, Trump received 8.4 percent of the black vote. Imagine if he was to double or triple that percentage. Black voters are part of the traditional Democrat base, and Trump is chipping away at them.





https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_brian_joondeph/beyond_the_polls_trump_is_sitting_pretty

[NeedsAdjustments]

57-30 on "patriotic education"


https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/lifestyle/education/most_agree_with_trump_on_need_for_patriotic_education

How would you define "patriotic education" kiidcarter8?

Describe it one to two sentences.

[NeedsAdjustments]

We got more brothers this year


Interestingly, 22 percent of surveyed blacks said they are voting for Trump. In 2016, Trump received 8.4 percent of the black vote. Imagine if he was to double or triple that percentage. Black voters are part of the traditional Democrat base, and Trump is chipping away at them.





https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_brian_joondeph/beyond_the_polls_trump_is_sitting_pretty

Led by the nose.

[kiidcarter8]

Some of Needs' buddies pissing him off, no doubt.

[kiidcarter8]

Trump strong approval up to FORTY-FOUR per cent!


https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

[barton]

Some of Needs' buddies pissing him off, no doubt.

It helps to read that whole commentary you linked,  so you learn the author is not with Rasmussen,  and is a freelance writer with no expertise in politics.  The article is heavily biased,  contains false statements,  and its sole factual basis is a poll done of blacks who have landlines,  blacks being a demographic group which is notably below the average rate of landline subscription in the cohort under age 55.   This would make "weighting" nearly impossible,  given the obvious question of which blacks would be willing to talk to Rasmussen,  and their likelihood to vote.   

This paragraph  from the linked article....

   Many view public opinion polls with well-deserved skepticism. Most polls aim to influence rather than reflect public opinion. Instead of surveying likely voters, many query whoever answers the phone, whether or not they are registered or likely voters. Many polls over-sample Democrats, skewing poll results in favor of the Democrat candidate...

...lacks any supporting evidence.   The aim of polls,  reputable ones like Gallup or Harris,  is to sample public opinion.   On what basis do they "over-sample" democrats?   And which ones survey whoever answers the phone (and how does this apply to cellphones??)  without screening?   

[barton]

Another problem with "likely to vote" is that some pollsters will use the criterion of having voted in the previous election as a way to determine likelihood.  A couple problems with this....

First,  1.4 million ex felons in Florida did not vote previously due to being banned from voting.   Even with the unconstitutional "legal fees" roadblock,  that still leaves something like 700,000 ex felons who can now vote.   That's a big chunk to be filtered out by a likely voter algorithm, simply on the basis that they didn't vote before.

Second,  18 year olds,  voting for the first time (and by all reports,  unusually energized this year) would also get filtered out by that algorithm.

Third,  look at how bad governance, endless lying,  and overt racism mobilized a congressional Blue Wave in 2018.  How many of those votes came from previously apathetic "unlikely" voters?

[barton]

Finally,  and I hope to see this discussed here,  how does covid actually affect voting among the elderly?   Here we have our most vulnerable demographic,  most likely to avoid polling stations and place their trust in...USPS.   And how do the elderly vote,  compared to the population as a whole?   I have to wonder if Trump has really thought this one through.

[bankshot1]

This political forum has gone from "Bush" to Obama to Trump to anti-Trump and now back to Bush.

Why?

is it 41 or 43?

and can we go the Biden ASAP?

as these Rs Presidents in general (41 was tolerable, and 43 just a nice guy Cheney puppet) have kind of suck for the country.

Thanks

and carry on

[josh]

https://apnews.com/afdfa0b3454d5a7fdf544158ee1f5e1f?fbclid=IwAR10GpddO2YppCFIOcsqa1dIh_u5-479DJ3TlCrtrQwQE44y-hk8_8-lpts

Trump downplays legacy of slavery in appeal to white voters

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump intensified efforts to appeal to his core base of white voters on Thursday by downplaying the historical legacy of slavery in the United States and blasting efforts to address systemic racism as divisive.

The president’s comments marking the 233rd anniversary of the signing of the Constitution amounted to a defense of white culture and a denunciation of Democrats, the media and others who he accused of trying to indoctrinate school children and shame their parents’ “whiteness.”

[josh]

This political forum has gone from "Bush" to Obama to Trump to anti-Trump and now back to Bush.

Why?

Somebody said I should get rid of "Anti-Trump" and put it back to what it was originally.

So, I did. Then I waited for somebody to ask why!

And how about if I create a separate "topic" just for Rasmussen posts?!

[bankshot1]

This political forum has gone from "Bush" to Obama to Trump to anti-Trump and now back to Bush.

Why?

Somebody said I should get rid of "Anti-Trump" and put it back to what it was originally.

So, I did. Then I waited for somebody to ask why!

And how about if I create a separate "topic" just for Rasmussen posts?!

I thought anti-Trump was an excess of editorial oversight, but Trump seemed to be a neutral moniker for a wide spectrum of political views.

To quote De Caprio from Wolf of Wall St. "I never been a fan of the Bush"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=icMm7sRUl1A