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Reports of protests are overblown. A few incidents around the country, but nothing major.

5 (45.5%)

A few major incidents in capitals, but nothing much in DC.

5 (45.5%)

A major incident in DC, but nothing much around the country.

0 (0%)

More than 10 capitals have major upheavals, but nothing much in DC.

0 (0%)

A major incident in DC plus more than 10 capitals with significant upheavals.

1 (9.1%)

More than half the capitals around the country have problems with protesters, but DC is quiet.

0 (0%)

DC has major problems, while more than half the capitals around the country also have considerable trouble with protesters.

0 (0%)

Huge disruption to the day.

0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 9

Voting closed: January 19, 2021, 10:49:21 PM

[LarryBnDC]

Rasmussen for Tuesday Jun 9

-17/-11


same as 5/20.  Equal to Jan 2019 number.

Trump has come back from such a low.  But is there time in this instance?

(Overall low was -26, during first year)

Pandemic

Recession

Nationwide uprisings

Yep. Business as usual.

Where were you when I was trying to sell the only patch of land in Scotland Neck, NC that didn’t have pine trees?

[kiidcarter8]

I think "national polls" are irrelevant

How about a poll that has him down double digits in Michigan?

He also trails in Ohio, Arizona and Wisconsin.

Get 3 of those 4 and you probably win.

And you still have Florida and Pa..

[Yankguy1]

I think "national polls" are irrelevant

How about a poll that has him down double digits in Michigan?

He also trails in Ohio, Arizona and Wisconsin.

If polls have to be used, I prefer those.  As I said previously, I think lots of Trump support doesn't show up in polls.

[bodiddley]

http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/george-floyds-lawyer-asks-united-nations-to-intervene-in-case/ar-BB15cvRn?li=AAgfYrC&OCID=AVRES000

George Floyd's Lawyer Asks United Nations to Intervene in Case

Ben Crump, the attorney representing George Floyd's family, has called on the United Nations to intervene and investigate the circumstances around the middle-aged black man's death and to make recommendations about law enforcement reforms.

"The United States of America has a long pattern and practice of depriving Black citizens of the fundamental human right to life ...The United States government has consistently failed to hold police accountable and did not bring Federal criminal charges even in cases with irrefutable video evidence. When a group of people of any nation have been systemically deprived of their universal human right to life by its government for decades, it must appeal to the international community for its support and to the United Nations for its intervention," Crump said.

Here's a vid of Malcolm X on TV in 1965 (being called Mr. X by the white interviewers) calling for that exact same thing.  For the UN to investigate human rights abuses in America v. black people.

[Hairy Lime]

I think "national polls" are irrelevant

How about a poll that has him down double digits in Michigan?

He also trails in Ohio, Arizona and Wisconsin.

Get 3 of those 4 and you probably win.

And you still have Florida and Pa..

Given demographics, if Arizona is in play, Trump will lose. Not because.of.Arizona per se, but because it is that far past what needs to be the tipping point for.a Repo to win the electoral college. It would be.like Oregon being in play.

[bankshot1]

http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/george-floyds-lawyer-asks-united-nations-to-intervene-in-case/ar-BB15cvRn?li=AAgfYrC&OCID=AVRES000

George Floyd's Lawyer Asks United Nations to Intervene in Case

Ben Crump, the attorney representing George Floyd's family, has called on the United Nations to intervene and investigate the circumstances around the middle-aged black man's death and to make recommendations about law enforcement reforms.

"The United States of America has a long pattern and practice of depriving Black citizens of the fundamental human right to life ...The United States government has consistently failed to hold police accountable and did not bring Federal criminal charges even in cases with irrefutable video evidence. When a group of people of any nation have been systemically deprived of their universal human right to life by its government for decades, it must appeal to the international community for its support and to the United Nations for its intervention," Crump said.

Here's a vid of Malcolm X on TV in 1965 (being called Mr. X by the white interviewers) calling for that exact same thing.  For the UN to investigate human rights abuses in America v. black people.

I'd rather we have a "Kerner" style biparisan multi-racial commission than ask the Russians and Chinese to critique and provide solemn guidance and provide pointers to help us solve our racial problems, societal ills and the unfairness in our soceity.

But to borrow and paraphrase the musing of a wise man, "I'm sure they will mean well."

perhaps we can get North Korea's thoughts as well.

Mr Crump might be better served talking with the Biden camp than the Putin or Xi representatives.

[kiidcarter8]

I see what you are saying, YG

OHIO was actually even more tilted to Trump in 2016 than AZ.  But you are right - if that amount is being made up in those states - then nationally it should carry over


I think Biden should just hire Bruno and go for the 50-state sweep.

[LarryBnDC]

Real Clear average currently Biden +8

You will forgive me for using IBD and Emerson, currently at +3 and +6 - as polling seemed skewed by 3-4 points toward Clinton in 2016, final numbers considered.

Is Trump buried?  I honestly don't think we can state this til at least mid September.

Comey changed the game.

[bankshot1]

Real Clear average currently Biden +8

You will forgive me for using IBD and Emerson, currently at +3 and +6 - as polling seemed skewed by 3-4 points toward Clinton in 2016, final numbers considered.

Is Trump buried?  I honestly don't think we can state this til at least mid September.

Comey changed the game.

Yup

Trick or treat.

Perhpas if he felt as conflicted about informing the public that the FBI was investigating the Trump campaign's possible collusion with Russia as he was about telling us about  taking a 2nd look at some new e-mails...

[LarryBnDC]

I think "national polls" are irrelevant

Agree. They make for headlines and help fundraising, but they're not necessarily representative of the electoral college. The Steve Kornacki maps of each state's counties is far more helpful. But I haven't seen one of those in a while. Wonder how cancelled Chris Matthews is doing, btw?

He’s doing fine. He’s got a book coming out next year about his life in politics and he hopes to come back to tv soon.

[LarryBnDC]

Is Trump buried?  I honestly don't think we can state this til at least mid September.

I honestly don't think anyone is stating that.  Yankguy still thinks Trump will win.

What we can state is that the polling landscape is very bad for Trump; approval headed below 40%, +9 generic ballot lead for Congressional Democrats, and of course national polling that puts Biden's position in line with that of a popular incumbent.

And while yes, 2016 demonstrated the limits of national polls in predicting the electoral college winner, and state polling has more noise, there are good signs there for Biden too.  He is leading in some polls in Georgia and Texas, for fucks sake.

The Trump Administration has been terrible and the polling reflects it.  But we know Trump will play dirty, and we know Republicans in Congress will stand behind him no matter what it means for our Democracy.  So yeah, there are unknowns.

I think Trump is toast.

[LarryBnDC]

To be fair, "hyper-partisanship" is not exclusive to committed conservatives.

I think most people look for information that confirms their biases.

I know this is a popular thing to say, but its untrue.  This is not a symmetrical phenomena.  Particularly when it comes to media.  Fox and OAN are not balanced opposites on the media spectrum from CNN and the NYTimes.

So, people who are not conservatives don't look to confirm their biases?

I'm not arguing about the media presentation and who one thinks is more fair with their coverage. I'm discussing people and what they look for. Human beings want their opinions mirrored back to them.
Hell, just listening to sports talk radio would teach you that!

Without too much hyperbole conservatives operate on a different plane of reality.


https://exjournalistsunite.wordpress.com/2020/02/03/were-living-in-the-republican-partys-altered-states/

[LarryBnDC]

If you can find a major media source on the left that daily made a claim as outrageous as COVID being a hoax cooked up by Democrats, please post it.

I'll give you two examples off the top of my head. Judith Miller and Jason Blair. NYT.
Miller helped get Americans killed, btw.

Judith Miller was a mouthpiece for Dick Cheney

Jayson Blair was a skilled writer and a better liar.

He made the classic mistake of any amateur liar. He knew it wasn’t true.

Whereas folks on the far conservative spectrum don’t worry about being caught in a lie because they absolutely positively believe.

[facilitatorn]

If you can find a major media source on the left that daily made a claim as outrageous as COVID being a hoax cooked up by Democrats, please post it.

I'll give you two examples off the top of my head. Judith Miller and Jason Blair. NYT.
Miller helped get Americans killed, btw.

Remember that the substance of Miller’s bullshit was a false idea that the republican leadership at the time was not a pack of raving cannibals with no plan. The republican leadership at the time, as they are now, were raving cannibals. They’ve never had a plan or a clue. The Times is a center-right outlet.

[kiidcarter8]

Is Trump buried?  I honestly don't think we can state this til at least mid September.

I honestly don't think anyone is stating that.  Yankguy still thinks Trump will win.

What we can state is that the polling landscape is very bad for Trump; approval headed below 40%, +9 generic ballot lead for Congressional Democrats, and of course national polling that puts Biden's position in line with that of a popular incumbent.

And while yes, 2016 demonstrated the limits of national polls in predicting the electoral college winner, and state polling has more noise, there are good signs there for Biden too.  He is leading in some polls in Georgia and Texas, for fucks sake.

The Trump Administration has been terrible and the polling reflects it.  But we know Trump will play dirty, and we know Republicans in Congress will stand behind him no matter what it means for our Democracy.  So yeah, there are unknowns.

I think Trump is toast.

Regardless...

.....forever 45th POTUS