IHME has updated their projection for October 1 (by way of announcing their Nov 1 projection) again.
This time, it looks as if they have been listening to me, as they bumped it up from 175k by 10/1 up to 185 by then (unless we change to universal facemasks). 208 for November 1, if we don't, but don't loosen things further. And 215k if we do (but no change to Oct. 1, only Nov. 1, should that happen).
I think the 185k for 10/1 is pretty reasonable.
But it's a thousand low after a week and extrapolating, that could be 17k off by Nov. 1.