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Reports of protests are overblown. A few incidents around the country, but nothing major.

5 (45.5%)

A few major incidents in capitals, but nothing much in DC.

5 (45.5%)

A major incident in DC, but nothing much around the country.

0 (0%)

More than 10 capitals have major upheavals, but nothing much in DC.

0 (0%)

A major incident in DC plus more than 10 capitals with significant upheavals.

1 (9.1%)

More than half the capitals around the country have problems with protesters, but DC is quiet.

0 (0%)

DC has major problems, while more than half the capitals around the country also have considerable trouble with protesters.

0 (0%)

Huge disruption to the day.

0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 9

Voting closed: January 19, 2021, 10:49:21 PM

[kiidcarter8]

But of course you do admit Rasmussen to being most accurate (see 2016)

And their last 4 polls were Biden  +4, +1, +4 and +2

[NeedsAdjustments]

Both sides are doing what the can to get every vote (see Dems' Wisconsin shenanigans)

A) Bullshit.

B) Working with Russia to spread disinformation and sabotaging the Post Office can not be described as "doing what you can to get every vote."

[barton]

So Gov. Brown of Oregon revealed yesterday that she still hasn't talked to the White House about the fires because they haven't yet returned his call.  The State is current'y facing the prospect of mass evacuations, with no coordination from the Executive Branch.

But you know, Oregon is a Blue State.  And only Trump's friends should expect aid when they need it:

https://www.npr.org/2019/08/01/747196568/russia-says-trump-offered-to-help-putin-fight-forest-fires-in-siberia

Never mind that he was elected to be President of the United States.

[kiidcarter8]

- Voters see a more divided America after four years of the Trump presidency but think the country is less divided than it was when Barack Obama stepped down. They’re also more convinced that a Trump defeat in November will make the division even worse.




https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/voters_predict_even_more_division_if_trump_loses_reelection





Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters say Trump is more to blame for the division in America, while 45% blame his political opponents more. This compares to 52% and 38% respectively last October.

But a plurality (46%) now believes that America will become more divided if Trump is defeated by Joe Biden in the 2020 election, up from 38% last fall. Thirty-five percent (35%) say the country would be less divided. Eighteen percent (18%) think the level of division would be about the same

[NeedsAdjustments]

Hillary was ahead by almost as much at similar juncture - and races do almost always TIGHTEN as the day approaches

Not really.  Certainly didn't in 2008.  2012 polling showed the race tightening, but they turned out to be wrong. 

Hillary was up by about 2 points in polls on this date.  She did have a lead of about 7 points in mid-October.  But then the Comey letter happened.  And as I posted previously, there were far more undecided voters in 2016 than there are now.  Which is notable given that polling is showing Biden with 50% of likely voters.  Clinton only got up to 46%.

[NeedsAdjustments]

But of course you do admit Rasmussen to being most accurate (see 2016)

And their last 4 polls were Biden  +4, +1, +4 and +2

Rasmussen polling was not an outlier in 2016.  Their numbers were similar to those of other pollsters.

Not so this year.

[kiidcarter8]

Hillary was up by about 2 points in polls on this date.  She did have a lead of about 7 points in mid-October.  But then the Comey letter happened.  And as I posted previously, there were far more undecided voters in 2016 than there are now.  Which is notable given that polling is showing Biden with 50% of likely voters.  Clinton only got up to 46%.




UP TO 50%

Many polls lower.

[NeedsAdjustments]

Hillary was up by about 2 points in polls on this date.  She did have a lead of about 7 points in mid-October.  But then the Comey letter happened.  And as I posted previously, there were far more undecided voters in 2016 than there are now.  Which is notable given that polling is showing Biden with 50% of likely voters.  Clinton only got up to 46%.




UP TO 50%

Many polls lower.

Incorrect.   Some polls have Biden as high as 53%.  The average is over 50%.

[kiidcarter8]

But of course you do admit Rasmussen to being most accurate (see 2016)

And their last 4 polls were Biden  +4, +1, +4 and +2

Rasmussen polling was not an outlier in 2016.  Their numbers were similar to those of other pollsters.

Not so this year.

Final, 2016


NBC  Clinton +5
Reuters   +5
Monmouth   +6


FOX even had it Clinton +4
- but they had it +1 the week prior

Real Clear Politics conveniently erased Rasmussen from their final chart


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls

[NeedsAdjustments]

But of course you do admit Rasmussen to being most accurate (see 2016)

And their last 4 polls were Biden  +4, +1, +4 and +2

Rasmussen polling was not an outlier in 2016.  Their numbers were similar to those of other pollsters.

Not so this year.

Final, 2016


NBC  Clinton +5
Reuters   +5
Monmouth   +6


FOX even had it Clinton +4
- but they had it +1 the week prior

Real Clear Politics conveniently erased Rasmussen from their final chart


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls

Apples to oranges.  You need to include polling that included the other four candidates, which is the only poll that Rasmussen ran:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html#polls

Look through the history.  You could argue that Rasmussen was on the low side, but it was never an outlier.  About a point less than other polling, which happened to match the final vote.

[kiidcarter8]

Touche' - found your 52% poll


https://hamodia.com/2020/09/09/poll-biden-leads-trump-12-points-among-likely-voters/


Trump needs to turn the tide on what voters care about - that 14% tough on crime figure needs elevating - and his numbers re:  the virus need to continue to improve


When asked what was driving their pick for president, 28% said it was the candidate’s perceived ability to handle the coronavirus, and 23% said it was the ability to restore trust in government. An additional 19% said it was the candidate’s ability to boost the economy, and 14% said they were looking for a candidate who is “tough on crime.”

[NeedsAdjustments]

Touche' - found your 52% poll


https://hamodia.com/2020/09/09/poll-biden-leads-trump-12-points-among-likely-voters/

Latest polls from:

Monmouth - 51%
CNN - 51%
Economist/You Gov - 52%
CBS - 52%
Quinnipiac - 52%
UCS Dornsife - 53%
Harvard-Harris - 53%

[josh]

Hillary was ahead by almost as much at similar juncture

No, she wasn't.
            2020      2016      Difference
RCP National Average   D +7.5   D +2.2   Biden +5.3

[josh]

Real Clear Politics conveniently erased Rasmussen from their final chart

Not just their final chart, Kid. There is nothing Rasmussen after July!

That is very curious.

But regardless of 2016, in 2020 Rasmussen lies regularly. No data there, just made up numbers and stories.

[kiidcarter8]

edit -

YES

It was later in September that Clinton soared to +5, 6, 7...

Thanks for that correction