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Reports of protests are overblown. A few incidents around the country, but nothing major.

5 (45.5%)

A few major incidents in capitals, but nothing much in DC.

5 (45.5%)

A major incident in DC, but nothing much around the country.

0 (0%)

More than 10 capitals have major upheavals, but nothing much in DC.

0 (0%)

A major incident in DC plus more than 10 capitals with significant upheavals.

1 (9.1%)

More than half the capitals around the country have problems with protesters, but DC is quiet.

0 (0%)

DC has major problems, while more than half the capitals around the country also have considerable trouble with protesters.

0 (0%)

Huge disruption to the day.

0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 9

Voting closed: January 19, 2021, 10:49:21 PM

[barton]

China primarily had one month of infectious spread and then 7 weeks with many needing treatment.  And after 8 weeks things were well in hand, with basic precautions remaining in place (masks, temp checks, no large groups allowed).

....

(no paywall on CV stories)

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-transmission.html

As many as 25 percent of people infected with the new coronavirus may not show symptoms, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warns — a startlingly high number that complicates efforts to predict the pandemic’s course and strategies to mitigate its spread.

In particular, the high level of symptom-free cases is leading the C.D.C. to consider broadening its guidelines on who should wear masks.

“This helps explain how rapidly this virus continues to spread across the country,” the director, Dr. Robert Redfield, told National Public Radio in an interview broadcast on Tuesday.

The agency has repeatedly said that ordinary citizens do not need to wear masks unless they are feeling sick. But with the new data on people who may be infected without ever feeling sick, or who are transmitting the virus for a couple of days before feeling ill, Mr. Redfield said that such guidance was “being critically re-reviewed....   

[kiidcarter8]

This court ruling may by itself change the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.

https://lawandcrime.com/2020-election/federal-court-tosses-floridas-poll-tax-formerly-incarcerated-people-can-vote-in-2020/?fbclid=IwAR3VaNdWBlb42tN5D_xponVa8bRTlbnFHkDws9UXuusF7ql_d-rRvbz2vaw

Woo-hoo!   Whether or not this changes an election,  it's a great moment for democracy.

So if Biden just flips Florida he wins, right?


Wait. No?

[barton]

I was speaking of all elections, both national and downstream.  No idea if this would tip things for Joe.   

  Please don't put words in my mouth.   It's your worst MB habit.   

[kiidcarter8]

OK, gotcha

You will be one of those in the "I never said Biden would win" group.

[kiidcarter8]

I'd rather talk about the election for a day (day off from virus) but some interesting new (model) numbers


https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/health/coronavirus-lower-death-rate/index.html


0.66% death rate - or one in 150 - is not so bad (current numbers running between 1 in 60 and 1 in 70 from reported positives)

7.8% - 1 in 13 infected - if over 80 years old - even is not so bad

Miniscule rate for children under 9 is of course the best news.

[bodiddley]

Of course the info about the long incubation period and likely contagious period prior to that, and many folks asymptomatic has been well known for over a month.  Alot of folks on one of those early death cruise ships tested positive but were asymptomatic.  That was in Feb, and by late Feb/early March it was clear that many on the ship tested positive but were asymptomatic.

About half the people who tested positive for the coronavirus on the Diamond Princess cruise ship appeared to show no symptoms. Of the 634 confirmed cases aboard the ship off of the coast of Japan last month, 328 were reported to be asymptomatic. There were 3,063 people tested on the ship in total.

[bodiddley]

I've been talking about asymptomatic and presymptomatic cases for weeks.

[bodiddley]

A President Unfit for a Pandemic
Much of the suffering and death coming was preventable. The president has blood on his hands

A harsh, but true judgement.

Lives were at stake and Trump fucked up.

[bodiddley]

On March 6, I started checking in here and was already horrified at the US response and expecting disaster.

So Trump doesn't want folks off the cruise ship because he doesn't want the official US number of cases to go up?  Jeez.

And didn't he only request $2.5B and Congress upped it to $8B?

Seriously, this has been largely a farce.
Wait til the virus really spreads in the US ...

And by March 7 we were already talking here about asymptomatic folks.

I only touched back down in Shanghai on March 3rd, coming back after basically 4 weeks with limited internet and news (broken computer for 2 weeks and a Euro-vacation I somehow slipped in).  And popped in here briefly March 5 on the primary election and then March 6 on the virus.

On March 6 I was already harassing you folks about the need for mask wearing.
Nearly a month ago.  Would have been earlier, but I was away for a month.

The [face mask] request was in case you HAD the virus.

Which is largely ... stupid.
If you have the virus, you should be self-quarantining (or quarantined in hospital if you have serious symptoms).
In your house, you should wear a mask to protect family member/caregivers.
But you definitely shouldn't be out in public, mask or no.

The other problems with that advice:  Many folks will have only mild symptoms and not know they have the virus.  Symptoms are similar to cold and flu.  Test kits aren't readily available yet (a month plus into a pandemic!) so it's hard to know who actually has it or not.  So best if anyone with a cough, or any sickness wear a mask in public. 

Masks are imperfect, but a reasonable precaution and help stop the spread of disease, by largely keeping your germs with you, blocking others germs and reducing the instances of touching your nose and mouth with potentially contaminated hands.

The fricking USofA can't produce enough simple face masks to protect the country and anyone who feels the need to wear one.  That's pathetic.  Again, where was the preparation?  Shanghai, maybe 1000 miles from Wuhan has been on near lockdown for over 5 weeks.  Didn't the Trump Admin make any plans during that time.  Like stockpile and produce more facemasks.  hell, it could be the one bright spot in the economy along with wet wipes and hand sanitizer.

[bodiddley]

Btw, reading early March posts and kiid was persistently wrong and soft-peddling the crisis.

This seems as succinct as possible.

4 confirmed cases in NJ.  A 5th suspected. 
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/03/coronavirus-in-nj-another-resident-tests-positive-the-3rd-case-in-the-state.html
Get your masks ready ...

they don't help.

They do if you come in contact with someone who has the virus.
They can stop transmission and protect you from getting the virus.
Which is the whole point.  Why is this hard to understand?

Why do you think health care professionals wear them?

[kiidcarter8]

Lives were at stake and Trump fucked up.

You posted this opinion a half dozen times already

[barton]

I've been talking about asymptomatic and presymptomatic cases for weeks.

That's why I posted that link and excerpts to you.   Implicit in my post was that your strong advocacy on masks was spot on,  and it's too bad the US is late to the party.   

[barton]

OK, gotcha

You will be one of those in the "I never said Biden would win" group.

You don't appear to have "got" me at all.   Let's consider any further chat between us to be pointless.   I will not address your postings further.   Good day.

[josh]

Better charting, from Toronto Star


https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/03/28/are-we-flattening-the-coronavirus-curve-click-here-daily-to-compare-canada-to-the-countries-around-the-world.html?li_source=LI&li_medium=thestar_recommended_for_you

The "new cases by day" charts are terrible! They show differences in shapes, but because every scale is different and every country's population is different, it gives no real sense of the differences between the different locations.

The second. multi-color graph is far better in showing comparative progressions, but again fails because the population scale is absent.

Bo posted a link to Worldometer and they have a column for cases per million population and another for deaths per million population. I chose not to list those in my comparison and perhaps I should have.

Easily enough done:

Country   Total Cases | New Cases | Tot Dths | New Dths | Tot Rcvrd | Active Cases | Sers/Crit | Tot Cases/1M pop | Deaths/1M pop | Rprtd 1st case
World   886,112   +27,793   44,228   +1,926   185,274   656,610   33,793   113.7   5.7   Jan 10
USA           190,022   +1,492     4,102   +    49      7,274   178,646   4,576      574   12   Jan 20
Italy           105,792              12,428              15,729   77,635   4,023   1,750   206   Jan 29
Spain   102,136   +6,213     9,053   +589   22,647   70,436   5,872   2,185   194   Jan 30
China   81,554   +    36    3,312   +    7   76,238   2,004      466       57   2   Jan 10
Germany   74,508   +2,700      821   +  46   16,100   57,587   2,675      889   10   Jan 26
France   52,128              3,523                9,444   39,161   5,565      799   54   Jan 23
Iran           47,593   +2,988   3,036   +138   15,473   29,084   3,871      567   36   Feb 18
UK           29,474   +4,324   2,352   +563      135   26,987      163      434   35   Jan 30
Switzerlan   17,137   +532      461   +  28   2,967   13,709      348   1,980   53   Feb 24
Belgium   13,964   +1,189      828   +123   2,132   11,004   1,088   1,205   71   Feb 03
Netherlan   13,614   +1,019      1,173   +134      250   12,191   1,053      795   68   Feb 26
Turkey   13,531                 214                 243   13,074      847      160   3   Mar 09
Austria   10,553   +373      146   +  18   1,436     8,971      215   1,172   16   Feb 24
S. Korea   9,887   +101      165   +    3   5,567     4,155       55      193   3   Jan 19
Canada   8,612                 101              1,242     7,269      120      228   3   Jan 24
Portugal   8,251   +808      187     +   27        43     8,021      230      809   18   Mar 01
Brazil   5,908   +191      204   +    3      127     5,577      296       28   1.0   Feb 24
Israel   5,591   +233        23   +    3      226     5,342       97      646   3   Feb 20
Sweden   4,947   +512      239   +  59        16     4,692      393      490   24   Jan 30
Australia   4,864   +101        21   +    1      345     4,498       50      191   0.8   Jan 24

[josh]

I'd rather talk about the election for a day (day off from virus) but some interesting new (model) numbers


https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/health/coronavirus-lower-death-rate/index.html


0.66% death rate - or one in 150 - is not so bad (current numbers running between 1 in 60 and 1 in 70 from reported positives)

7.8% - 1 in 13 infected - if over 80 years old - even is not so bad

Miniscule rate for children under 9 is of course the best news.

You should learn to read.