25,000 deaths in NYC
29 in Shanghai
Thoughts?
Multiple strains of coronavirus may have been endemic in China for millennia, so low death rates may partially reflect much greater general immunity even to a novel strain.
The Covid-9 ripped through Wuhan and Hubei pretty fast. A major outbreak. Stopped by a total 2 month lockdown of Wuhan and a pretty strong provincial lockdown as well.
Seems likely it would have spread in every province in China like it did in Hubei if not for strong timely precautionary measures.
It'd be interesting to see comparisons, but Hubei is about 80M people I think, roughly the size and population of a major EU country, and I think the number of cases and deaths were fairly similar to Spain/ Italy for the first month of the respective outbreaks. But Hubei underwent a very thorough lockdown which stopped transmissions, while Spain and Italy dawdled and went in for half measures and their outbreaks spread.
My main take away on this virus is that it isn't that hard to stop transmission, if strong precautions are followed. No crowds, shut down most work places for a month or more, face masks, temp checks, handwashing, surface cleaning, contact tracing, travel restrictions.
And the sooner you undertake these prophylactic steps the fewer people who get sick, the fewer who die, and the sooner you can resume normal activities. Also, any reopening of the economy should be done gradually with some measures such face masks and social distancing still employed.